The Global Fallout from Niger’s Coup

The key players

Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, who also goes by the first name of Omar, has emerged as the leader of the coup and declared himself the head of Niger’s transitional government. Tchiani has been in charge of the presidential guard since 2011 – the group was tasked with protecting the president and guarding against military takeovers, just like the one they orchestrated.

The man he was supposed to protect, Bazoum, was elected in 2021, winning more than 55% of the vote. He was the country’s first leader to come to power in a peaceful transition since Niger’s independence in 1960. He had played a critical role in the previous government, as an interior minister and a right-hand man for the former president Mahamadou Issoufou. Reports indicated that Bazoum was planning to reorganise the elite force, which included removing Tchiani from his role as head of the group – Tchiani clearly beat him to the punch.

After several days of silence on his wellbeing, it seems as though the presidential guard has kept its word when they said they would not harm Bazoum. An image emerged yesterday showing the leader smiling broadly with Mahamat Idriss Déby, the president of Chad. Déby met with Bazoum in his presidential residence in Niamey, where he is reportedly being held, as well as with the leaders of the coup.

What sparked the coup?

The junta has justified its actions by claiming that it was in response to the “continuing deterioration of the security situation”, adding that the president’s measures did not go far enough to protect Niger. For a number of years, Niger, like many countries in the Sahel, has faced a growing problem with Islamist insurgencies linked to Boko Haram, al-Qaida and Islamic State, particularly in the tri-border region between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The putschists also pointed to the country’s collapsing economic position as another reason.

However, reports show that despite frequent militant attacks, Niger has been comparatively successful in keeping such violence at bay. According to the BBC, the number of deaths in Niger was markedly lower than Mali and Burkina Faso, which have both had military coups. Those coups in neighbouring countries have not helped end such violent, in fact there has been an increase in deaths from jihadists since the military takeovers.

The impact on the Sahel region

Even though the takeover has so far been a bloodless one, this coup will have far-reaching consequences for Niger, its democracy and the Sahel as a whole. The region, which includes Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, Senegal, Nigeria, Sudan and Eritrea, has been marred by political instability, violent insurgencies and the debilitating effects of the climate crisis. The deteriorating humanitarian situation is compounded by acute food insecurity and has created one of the fastest-growing displacement crises in the world.

Niger sits at the centre of this region, and before this coup presented itself as a bastion of stability. It has been suggested that the uprising could threaten to “unwind democratic gains not just in the Sahel region but in the broader western Africa” because of the growing volatility.

The international response

Tchiani and his group have not been recognised internationally by any countries as the lawful leaders of Niger. The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) has been unequivocal in its response to the coup. Not only has it suspended ties with Niger and agreed to immediate financial sanctions, it has also authorised the possible use of force if Bazoum is not released and reinstated within a week.

France, Niger’s former colonial power, has said it “will not tolerate any attack on France and its interests”. The military junta has also accused France of plotting military intervention to reinstate the president – the French foreign minister has emphatically denied any such intention.

France has also cut off financial support, alongside Britain and the rest of the EU, a move that will hurt Niger as it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Blinken offered the ousted president his “unflagging support” during a phone call, adding that the military coup threatens the hundreds of millions of dollars in economic support the US provides Niger.

The only person who seems to be welcoming the news is Wagner private military group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who reportedly denied responsibility for the takeover but praised it as an anti-colonial struggle and offered the Moscow-backed mercenary group’s services to bring order to the streets of Niger. This is not surprising, considering that the other military-led governments in the region have been developing closer ties to Russia after their own coups.

The new leadership has been welcomed in some quarters of Niger, with thousands marching through the streets of the capital to denounce France’s involvement in their country, chanting Vladimir Putin’s name and waving large Russian flags. The demonstrators converged on the French embassy, throwing stones at the building and setting fire to its doors. The images were troubling to western powers, especially as the Wagner group has a growing presence in the Sahel region, particularly in Mali. And Moscow has been known to take advantage of instability and power vacuums in parts of west Africa to steadily build its presence on the continent.

However, there is, as of yet, no concrete indication that Russia will be stepping in – the Russian foreign ministry has even called for Bazoum to be released. The fear in the west is that this stalemate will not last and that if the president continues to refuse to resign, Tchiani will try to consolidate his power by ushering in support from Russia, leaving the US and France with no ally in the region.

Courtesy: The Guardian