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SPECIAL REPORTS

Return of the “Jaguda” President

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By Chidi Amuta

The “Jaguda” is a sort of rough -hewn familiar type in Nigerian urban street parlance. He is a general communal presence in such urban neighbourhoods, an outlaw that is often tolerated for his use value in times of trouble. He is a thug owned by the community in case rascality is needed. But the ‘Jaguda’ is publicly disowned when civility is back in demand. As a type, he lives dangerously, wages senseless fights and deploys vile methods and rough language to fend off dangerous adversaries. The ‘Jaguda’ is therefore a communal necessity in times of unplanned trouble requiring insane courage and deliberate rule-breaking for communal good. Communal crisis management has no code for the methods of the Jaguda. A necessary outlaw, the fellow is his own law and makes his own rules. The Jaguda’s methods are unpredictable, unscripted and unregulated by the rules of normality. He is capable of multiple risky escapades. He is a familiar rule breaker who however gets bad necessary things done. The Jaguda’s methods are usually unorthodox and even lawless but his results justify his unusual methods. Only communities in dire desperate scarcity of sensible leadership cede the throne to a Jaguda as king. The result is always a whirlwind of unimaginable consequences.

The recent triumph of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections looks like a vindication of the Jaguda as a leadership type in America’s political culture.  He has been in Washington before. The first time he defeated Hilary Clinton, he shocked the mainstream international liberal media.  In all our reading of the polls and projections, we were dead sure that Trump would be defeated. But we were dead wrong. Reflecting then on Trump’s initial victory, I felt in good company: The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, Financial Times, The Cable News Network (CNN) and indeed the entire gamut of influential global media and world leaders. We all gave the Manhattan real estate merchant with a discoloured hair patch skimpy chance. It has happened again. The media and the elite gave Trump skimpy chance against Kamala Harris this time around. But we were wrong again. Trump is now a  reality that America and indeed the world has to live with and deal with.

Trump’s trail was untidy enough to deny him the presidency this time around. We concluded that a man with such a rough first term and a pile of criminal indictments and civil infractions could not possibly win a re-entry into the White House.  In mistaking politics for Sunday School morality, we were wrong again. Trump won an even more robust victory over the Democrats’ Kamala Harris, a nice, ever smiling aunty next door -type candidate of the Democrats. But see what we have? Donald Trump is US president imminent. As Garrison Keillor wrote in The Washington Post of 9th November when Trump first won, :  “Raw ego and proud illiteracy have won out, and a severely learning-disabled man with a real character problem will be president.” In the contest against Hilary Clinton back then, easily one of his signature verbal indiscretions was at the final debate when he interrupted Hillary Clinton on the debate podium: “Nasty Woman!” Now, perhaps we can all greet Trump in this euphoric moment by shouting: “Nasty man!”

Yet, whether we like it or not, both Trump I and Trump Ii are products and outcomes of democracy. As it turns out, every now and again in history, democracy delivers an illegitimate child. Adolf Hitler was one. Closer to this copy is Silvio Berlusconi, another licentious and noisy moneybag who straddled over Italy for decades. Here comes another, Trump, a loud, foul -mouthed and unstable Manhattan real estate vendor with a scant knowledge of government.

One term in the White House and four years out in the cold rough and tumble of ordinary life have reinforced Mr. Trump’s credentials as a incensed thug and unashamed rascal, a quintessential jaguda as king. He is as comfortable in the humiliation of the courtroom docks as he is in corporate boardrooms. He has now won both the Electoral College and Popular Votes by a wide margin for a return to the White House with a familiar drunken swagger. A publicly licensed thug and convicted felon is perhaps the most dangerous burden that a democracy can inflict on itself. But as they say, it is what it is. The people have spoken. We can only speculate on the prospects of a second Trump Presidency both for the US and the rest of the world.

Yet the Agbero or Jaguda as a type of political hero has in recent times emerged as a democratic outcome. It is not only in America. It has happened elsewhere. Trump has expressed an appetite to use the military to fight the “enemies within” the US, meaning his political opponents. The Pillipines” Duterte used summary executions to combats drug lords and sundry criminals and open repression to fight press freedom. Hungsry’s Viktor Orban fights his opponents as viciously as external aggressors. Vladimir Putin has virtually exterminated his political opponents, adversarial journalists and dissidents using assassinations, targeted poisoning, gangster style street executions and targeted bombings etc to ensure he remains the last man standing on the Russian power podium.

Democratic populism, illiberal democracy. Neo nationalism and creeping authoritarianism are all political and ideological contexts in which this new type of leader – the jaguda- have sneaked back into our political reality. In previous eras, fascism and communist totalitarianism and military despotism allowed for the emergence of Hitler, Mussolini and their Latin American clones.

This latest electoral victory does not absolve Mr. Trump of the heinous negatives that have become the trademarks of his previous tenure and track record. The man remains a racist, bigot, misogynist, merchant of hate and unscrupulous businessman. His political message for America at home remains a divisive one. The best that can be expected from his presidency going forward would at best be a moderation or modulation of these tendencies forced by public opinion and stiff opposition.

While waiting for formal inauguration, Trump has been rehearsing new Jaguda antics, sowing the seeds of catastrophic upheaval.  Right from the confirmation hearings on his appointments by the Senate. He has nominated a slew of controversial persons for positions for which they are either not qualified or have baggages of controversy that would make them difficult to confirm. For Health and Human Services, he has nominated Robert Kennedy Jr., a man whose controversial views on public heath issues with annoy drug and health majors. He initially nominated Mr. Matt Gaetz for Attorney General and stuck to the choice until a barrage of evidence surfaced that a Congressional committee report had indicted the man for serial misdeeds ranging from sexual harassment, sex with minors and sundry racketeering.

Similarly, he nominated Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence , a top National Security lob even though she is a known admirer and advocate of known US adversaries like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. His nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, is a veteran of slim executive experience of defense and national security issues at the high level who happens to be a television anchor. Unlike in his first term when he deliberately went star hunting for people of gigantic stature, he has now opted for minimals, people who are loyal to him and would rely on his approval to get anything done. From the relative inexperience of some of his nominees to their questionable track records, there is evidence that Mr. Trump prefers to appoint mostly people whose competence and experience is thin but whose loyalty to him is unquestionable. Clearly, the confirmation hearings for most of these nominees will be turbulent on the floor of the Senate and only serve Trump to divide and rule the Senate.

In the area of foreign relations, he has been tossing potentially incendiary foreign policy propositions. He would rather make Canada an additional US state after imposing a 25% tariff  on all imports from Canada. He advances the naïve notion that the United States can use economic blackmail to turn Canada into America’s 52nd state. He would pursue his border war agaist Mexico and hurriedly ship home illegal Mexican immigrants living in the US He would like to rename the Gulf of Mexico into the “Gulf of America”. More bizarrely, he would revoke the Panama Canal Treaty and retake control of the Canal. On Gaza, he has warned Hamas to hurry uo on the release of hostages in return for an Israeli seize fire or “all hell will be let loose” in the region. He has expressed interest in annexing Greenland as a US territory. Barely a fortnight to is second inauguration, his son, Donald Jr. ,has jetted off to Greenland on a tourism or exploratory trip. He has reiterated his first term threat to reduce US financing and support of NATO and leave the Europeans to pay most of their defense and security bills.

Taken together, the totality of Trump’s pre-inauguration foreign policy bluater has the potential of turning the world as we have known it upside down. Any attempt to forcefully take over Greenland will upset relations with Denmark, the sovereign authority over Greenland. Animosity over Greenland with Denmark would be a head-on collision with the European Union and NATO. Notjust that. The Russian share a border with Greenland and have an obviously strategic interest in the status of Greenland as a free territory for scientific and military exploits. Canada can hold out on its own and align with Mexico to mobilize the rest of the Organization of American States against US hegemony. A confrontation with Panama over the Canal will antagonize most of Latin America and earn Panama the financial support of China which is already a beneficiary of the present status of the Panama Canal.

Mr. Trump may not understand that the world as we know it is sustained on long standing alliances and alignments. The global stability on which America’s hegemony depends is built on the sustainability of these global alliances. To pursue a foreign policy that upsets many of these alliances is toturn the world upside down and keep America busy fighting fires that it may have lit by the actions of its rascally political leadership.

It is easy to dismiss these threats to our world order as part of Trump’s familiar bluster aimed at advancing his transactional style of presidency. It is a known feature of Mr. Trump’s method to increase the dramatic intensity of his reign by throwing up such hair- brained propositions. It earns him global media attention. It sends the leaders of the target countries into a panic mode. At bottom isd the inevitable question: what concession does Trump want to extract?

Meanwhile, Trump’s overloaded moral baggage remains alive in the form of his numerous court cases and legal proceedings. A New York judge has slammed an conviction on Trump in his hush money case, insisting that he remains guilty but will not serve a jail term on account of his presidential immunity. Trump’s request for a Supreme Court intervention to prevent the sentencing has fallen flat. He has hurled invectives at the judge and threatened fire and brimstone. The judge remains determined to sentence him, making him the first convicted person to be sworn in as President.

Mr. Trump is not just a casual Lone Wolf political rascal. He is a lead participant in a growing worldwide political trend. He just happens to have sprouted in a most unlikely political environment- the United States. He is pushing the extreme limits of a far right conservative tendency with the assistance of people like Elon Musk. His disruptive politics has a context. He is a disciple in a tradition where people like Nigel Farage of the United Kingdom and a bit of Marie Le Pin in France are timid advocates. Trump is a harbinger of a new version of conservative populism which is targeting liberal democracy. He is coming at his political agenda and ideological onslaught with familiar instruments-  economic nationalism, trade isolationism,  tariff barriers, strict immigration controls and the reawakening of ethnic and racial myths. Above all else, the economic nationalism of this new conservatism is likely to further enrich the super rich and keep the poor content with inflation reduction gimmicks. Trump is made more dangerous by his American location.

Yet, Trump’s single most prized leadership trait is his admiration of ‘strong’ leadership defined in terms of the ability of leaders to bend the popular will to do their personal biddings, all in the name of their nations. Trump has repeatedly brandished such counter democratic or outright authoritarian figures as Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orban, Kim Jung Un as his preferred leadership models.

This strange leadership preference is perhaps part of the interest in the dramatic essence of the Trump phenomenon. As an outcome of a democratic election, the emergence and re-emergence of Donald Trump as US President is an interesting proposition in the evolution of global democratic culture. Democracy in its glory place has given birth to an authoritarian ruler, its direct opposite aim. In other words, can a democracy in its maturation give birth to an outcome that is capable of enthroning an autocracy? Is there a possibility that authoritarianism and liberal democracy can be born by the same mother from the same womb? Political scientists may indeed encounter in Donald Trump an interesting subject matter.

Trump’s familiar assault on conventional media fits into the character of this new disruptive neo-conservative tendency. During his chaotic first tenure, he challenged the concept of the truth and fact as bedrocks of journalism we have come to know it. A man who used the power of the media to burst into political limelight has been intent on undermining the foundation of the media!

That earlier time, it took the unexpected eruption of the Corona pandemic to stop Trump from upturning the world order and upending the very foundations of America’s order. Now the Jaguda President is back with a far more convincing electoral mandate.

Trump is largely a bit of suspense theatre, an exciting departure from the humdrum drabness of politics in Washington. The man is a decisive departure from the language and mannerisms of the crass theatre of every parliament in every national seat of power.  Anticipating Trump’s impending landfall is sufficiently suspenseful theatre full of questions and uncertainties and open questions

Will he send the military after his political opponents? Will he send the US military to annex Greenland? Will he forcefully retake the Panama Canal? Will he engage China in a trade war over tariffs? Will hje impose tariff on all imports from Canada and therefore blackmail Canada into becoming the 51st state of the US? Is he likely to arm Israel to wipe out the Palestinians of Gaza if Hamas fails to reach a seize fire agreement with Israel by the time he is inaugurated?

There is an impending historic explosion in the event that Trump 2 proceeds with some of his previewed foreign policy gambits. In a world that is faced with  a clear and present confrontation between freedom and democracy on one hand and growing authoritarianism on the other, Trump is somewhat anachronistic. Here is the leader of the so-called ‘free world’ rehearsing openly to lead his nation in the fashion of the worst authoritarians.


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SPECIAL REPORTS

Absent from Abuja, Present in Paris

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Chidi Amuta

The Nigerian political opposition is scoring desired attention from the Tinubu’s disappearing   antics. In apparent response to the growing outcry of opposition voices and the enlightened citizenry about the President’s prolonged absence in a bad time, the Presidency has just issued a second statement explaining and justifying Tinubu’s mysterious vacation in Europe.  The new statement is not different from the original one except that it aims at indicating that the President is at work even if away from his physical office in Abuja. It is becoming futile and even foolish creating an illusion of presidential overwork to cover up whatever else is keeping Tinubu away from Abuja.   The man has been absent from his official place of work for longer than makes sense. Period.

Ordinarily, the political opposition has every business commandeering the matter of Mr. Tinubu’s whereabouts. Every misstep of the president is a quarry for the opposition. His inexplicable long absence is of course part of the opposition’s arsenal in the build up to the frenzy of the 2027 campaigns. A president missing in action in a period of general worsening   insecurity and anarchic breakdown of order is everybody’s business. Predictably,  the opposition has conveniently added the president’s  prolonged absence to their growing inventory of anti Tinubu atrocities.

Both Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the LP , leading opposition figures, have screamed out loud that Tinubu has no business being away from the country at a time when the nation is in dire straights. There is trouble everywhere. People are being killed on an industrial scale almost daily in Plateau, Benue, Ebonyi and other vulnerable states. Boko Haram has reportedly returned to full business in Borno and its environs, gobbling up local governments and villages and killing as many soldiers as they can find. The political atmosphere in Rivers state remains uncertain and confusing as the Sole Administrator of the emergency rule there seems somewhat confused about his precise mandate or the exact meaning of emergency rule in a functioning democracy.  Whether or not Tinubu willed it, his latest mysterious vacation has given his growing opposition an early consensus.

Very few Nigerians care about where Mr. Tinubu will spend tonight. Fewer still ever seem to notice when the president is present or absent in Aso Villa. The street side logic is that our life circumstances remain the same whether or not the president is at home or abroad, at work or asleep. It is sad that a president that has been in office for just under two years has worked his way to a level of consequential irrelevance and ineffectuality where his presence or absence makes no difference to the people whose mandate he parades. In contrast, his predecessor only managed to get to this point at the middle of his second unimpressive term. At that point, it no longer mattered to mot Nigerians whether Mr. Buhari was coming or going!

From the onset, Tinubu has been mostly abroad anyway. In preparation for his busy air miles presidency, the president hurriedly equipped himself with a super luxury “new” presidential jet bought under a very opaque procurement process or lack of it. Some argue that it is part of his job specification that he jets around the world doing the business of Nigeria. Lobbying for investment. Expanding the reach of Africa’s largest democracy and attending the many meetings that make statesmen something of travelling salesmen. No one has yet explained why and how a nation with dwindling fortunes and strategic importance should be present at every small gathering of world leaders even if Nigeria has tangential interest.

Nonetheless, the more significant side of the argument on Tinubu’s junkets is that an elected president has an implicit obligation to stay home most of the time to man the ever –turbulent boat of the Nigerian state. Purveyors of this argument go further to insist that the greater part of the president’s attention is required at home. The reasons are many: our nationalism has far too many unresolved grey areas.  The business of nation building is far too incomplete for those elected to man the ship of state to stay too far from home for too long.

These clashing perspectives do not quite impress Mr. Bola Tinubu and his handlers. The man loves to work from anywhere else but home or his luxurious Abuja office. He loves to be air borne like his predecessor who would jet out to the nearest European capital to check an ear ache or bad tooth in a small clinic.

For Tinubu, his handlers insist that his far too frequent foreign missions and sojourns have little to do with any specific ailments or health concerns. He just feels uncomfortable with too many distracting visitors from local politicians and associates. For him, the business of overseeing Nigeria is too serious to allow for too long a stream of time wasters. So, he escapes from the rowdy crowd every now and again.

His current absence in Paris is one such example. He was probably seated in the aircraft when his handlers informed Nigerians that the president would be away in France for the next two weeks on a “working visit”, not vacation. During the absence, he would receive and review reports from government departments on the mid term report of his administration. He would be free to summon officials, interview them on the activities of their ministries and departments. For a whole fortnight, the president would work a crowded schedule remotely from Paris!

Where officials need to show up in person, they have to fly to Paris if they cannot fully explain their points on the phone or by email.  The president requires a minimum number of aides and assistants to do the heavy paper work required by his mid term assessment. These officials and assistants will incur costs in hotel bills, estacode allowances and other costs. A two week working vacation in Europe will take a significant toll on the national treasury in an economy that is struggling with liquidity issues. It is even a very scandalous public relations gambit to inform Nigerians that their president is gone abroad for a whole two weeks to do the work for which the state lavishly provides for him to perform in Abuja. I hardly can think of any other country where the leadership will embark on such an expensive excursion in the name of a “working visit.”

Of course Tinubu’s handlers have readily drawn our attention to the fact that the president is still working for Nigeria from Europe. In the modern era of real time information technology and speed of light communication, executives can discharge their functions from anywhere without any significant loss of efficiency and effectiveness. That is hardly at issue.

A president is the political leader of a nation. He is elected to lead people through the vicissitudes of daily life. That is why most leaders only leave home in extreme necessity. And when they do leave to undertake important foreign trips, they adhere to a tight schedule that brings them home as quickly as possible. Political leadership is a homebound undertaking. The leader is not self -employed. He is an employee of the people as an electorate and public in a republican democracy. Every excuse to move from one point to the other must be credibly explained to the people. Such explanations must make sense from a cost benefit perspective and even at the level of common sense.

Casually telling 300 million Nigerians that their president is relocating from Abuja to Paris on “a working visit” is an insult of the intelligence of the people as well as a reckless waste of public funds. The various statements that have emanated from the Presidency on this matter cast a pall on the basic intelligence of the issuing presidential minions that issued them as well as casting the institution itself in very poor light.

Yes indeed, the presidency can be a crowded enterprise. That is why a good number of countries have established presidential retreats outside the official residence of the President. In the United States, the Camp David retreat was designed and established to provide the president with a comfortable and convenient getaway destination. It has all the conveniences of a presidential palace and also a vacation destination but also serves the president as an alternative work station. He can do his daily schedule from there and even host foreign leaders there while breathing the fresh air of a getaway location.

Nigeria has so many locations that could host a Camp David- type resort for the president.  The Obudu Hills, Yankari Falls, Nike Lake, Ziba Beach, Ikogosi Warm Spring.  Each of these and many other locations  can host a world class presidential getaway resort built at a cost that is only a fraction of the billions being budgeted annually for renovating  existing residences for the President, Vice President and other high officials of state. We can can give such locations our peculiar cultural flavor: have resident dance troupes, entertainers etc. We can build helipads, airports and other facilities to ease access to the location.

These speculations presume that the reasons that have been advanced so far by the presidency for Tinubu’s current absence are altruistic and basically honest and true. There is a high possibility that the president could be on an extended medical vacation if beer palor whispers in Abuja are to be believed. In that case, it is still irresponsible of the presidency not to openly inform Nigerians if indeed the president needs overseas medical attention. It is in fact easier to communicate a medical bulletin and save themselves and the public these convoluted and fake adolescent explanations. Nigerians would understand that the president is human and has a right to suffer ailments from time to time for which he might need better medical care than what is available at home.

A man above seventy would be expected to suffer one health issue or the other from time to time. If indeed his personal doctor is in Paris or London, he is well within his rights to undertake such medical trips or even take medical vacations to attend to his health needs while the Vice President acts in his absence.  All these Mickey Mouse statements and childish attempts to disguise the truth are devaluing the credibility of the presidency as an institution. The truth is often light in weight. Incoherent lies are heavy baggage on the other hand.


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Are we Bound to this Violence?

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Chidi Amuta

For the better part of the last decade and half, Nigeria’s national security status has come to be measured by human casualties.  Hardly any day passes without the news headlines featuring stories of gory mass murders and senseless killings. When such news breaks, the question is usually about the scale. How many died? If it is about one or two dead, people move on. Attention and feelings only begin to be incensed when the number of dead is in scores. As a society, our collective humanity has become so inured to the loss of human lives on an industrial scale that we are literally now an insensitive society.

In the last week or so, we have had the Uromi killings of over 18 alleged hunters by local vigilantes. The versions are varied. One says a lorry load of men armed with Dane guns was intercepted by local vigilantes in Uromi, an area of Edo state that has been constantly assaulted by armed ‘strangers’.  The armed men who happen to come from the northern parts of our country were killed by the vigilantes. In that single incident, so many aspects of our corporate existence as a national community were abused: citizens’ right to move around freely in their country, the responsibility of locals to guard their safety, the ultimate responsibility of law enforcement to determine who bears arms and for what etc.

In the same week, the familiar inter ethnic and inter communal clashes in Plateau state led to the loss of many lives. All hell was let loose in the state in a now familiar virtual state of emergency in which inter communal communications and interactions in the affected areas have become impossible. Again, religion, livelihood interests and socio cultural troubles were raked up. The Plateau state governor has lamented his loss of security control of many parts of the state to bandits and random armed gangs who have literally outgunned the security forces. Almost simultaneously, similar skirmishes have been reported in nearby Benue state with an attendant loss of yet to be determined number of lives.

In the same week, Governor Zulum of Borno state has cried out about the resurgence of Boko Haram induced violence in many parts of the state. According to him, a new wave of the Sahelian jihadist violence has erupted and is rapidly retaking many parts of the state. Beside these major theatres of violent eruptions, sporadic killings and violence have been reported in places like Zamfara, Enugu and Ebonyi states. These are only recent incidents in a spiral of insecurity and violence that has become a permanent feature of our national scene. Literally, we sleep and wake in a virtual pool of the blood of our innocent compatriots who live in the susceptible areas.

For the past over a decade, every annual national budget has seen spending on defense and security rise astronomically. The pattern of defense spending looks more and more like that of a nation in an openly declared war. Orders of fixed wing combat aircraft, helicopter gunships, missiles, armored personnel carriers (APC) and drones have since become part of the annual ritual of our defense and security budgeting. Nothing in our budgeting or defense orders suggests a nation at peace with itself.

Correspondingly, insecurity has come to occupy a permanent place in the rhetoric of our politicians and political actors. Every presidential candidate and virtually every other governorship aspirant has come to include the eradication of insecurity as a priority item in their manifestoes and agenda. There is in fact, a pervasive psychological state in the nation that seems to have come to accept insecurity as a permanent part of our reality.  We are a frightened nation. People are afraid of each other. People are afraid to travel along the highways, rail roads or urban alleys. A mood of fear has been added to the prevailing atmosphere of poverty, hunger and economic desperation in the land.

Because our land is among the top five most dangerous places in the world, the military has since become part and parcel of our internal security profile. In virtually all the states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, joint patrols of the police and all arms of the military have been joined by Civil Defense, Department of State Security personnel and even local hunters armed with charms and amulets in a daily round –the- clock chase after bandits, jihadists, kidnappers, abductors and sundry “unknown gunmen” in urban and rural parts of the country. Squads of combat joint patrol troops in pickup vans have become a common sight on our roads and streets.

Beyond animated physical chases of bad people by security agents, there seem to be little effort to intelligently interrogate the real causes and patterns of our insecurity. Yes indeed, there is a fancy office of a National Security Adviser (NSA) with a full compliment of the paraphernalia of high power. But it is routinely defied by armed non- state actors who terrorize the populace consistently.

In a nation that has weaponized faith as an instrument of national existence, religious zealots have found it attractive to arm their devotees with assault rifles, Improvised Explosive Devices and suicide vests to advance toxic versions of their faiths. In a nation where the government used to maintain a monopoly of ultimate violence and coercion, the availability of the instruments of violence to all and sundry at a market price has demystified the state. Uniforms have become common outfits made by tailors which should not frighten people. People are no longer afraid of the guns or uniforms of the state.

Non state actors have been emboldened to challenge the state and sometimes even outgun the state. The democratization of the technologies of violence, disruption and destruction through the internet and other dark channels have made the task of the state as possessor of the instruments of ultimate violence more herculean.

Add to this the recent rise of micro nationalism in different parts of the world and the popularization of the ideas of self-determination of minorities as part of the rhetoric of international political language. Weapons of war and their random deployment by all manner of militias and separatist non-state forces have become part of the language of international political interaction. A new dictum of sovereign assertion has emerged: “We shoot, therefore we are.”

Most dangerously, in parts of the developing world, politicians have come to be agents of insecurity because insecurity itself has also become a tool in the quest for political ascendancy and apex power. Investment in non- state violent expressions has become attractive to politicians and professional trouble makers. It is common knowledge in Nigerian politics that in successive years, politicians have been known to import military uniforms, assault rifles, light arms and tear gas grenades to threaten and frighten and intimidate their opponents.

Thus overwhelmed by rival coercive forces, the state has buckled and weakened under the pressure of violent intimidation. In the process, merchants of trouble and blood have forced the state to cede them space in an illicit power sharing arrangement. Bandit leaders have signed MOUs with elected governors literally ceding parts of the territories of states to bandits and terrorists. Farmlands have been known to be ceded to bandit squads as concessional territories for revenue collection. Farmers have to pay bandits to plant, weed and harvest their crops.

In the process of this parade of illegitimacy, our society has created and tacitly come to recognize new categories of errant citizens and outlaws. We have seen the emergence of new types and archetypes of the anti social hero- Unknown Gun men, Gun Men, Bandits, Cultists, Yahoo Boys, and Kidnappers etc. These categories literally wear their badges with swagger and a certain degree of ‘pride’. It is worse when each of these illicit undertakings yields troves of cash in returns. A society that has come to enthrone the worship of money is prepared to do obeisance before these new deities of money and power.

On the social and cultural canvas, an insensitivity to blood and human suffering has come to characterize our new collective psychology. Capturing people like animals, maiming them with pleasure and dismembering them no longer frightens people. New forms of trade have emerged. Trade in human parts for money rituals, human sacrifice to facilitate success in cybercrime ventures, the use of rape to test male prowess and access to supernatural powers is now a vogue in some parts. A new generation of Nigerian youth sent to universities to partake in the wonders of modernity in science and technology are ending up as ritualists, rapists, voodoo priests, campus cultists and all the direct opposites of the aims of modern higher education.  A society suffused in religious superstition and all manner of prehistoric beliefs rolls out the red carpet for the new heroes who are then rewarded with lavish accolades, traditional titles and honours.

In a society where literally everything is a form of organized crime, even the fight against violence and insecurity has itself become a form of organized crime. Security has become an industry in itself. Security personnel collude and collaborate with kidnappers, abductors and bandits to facilitate their operations in return for a commission. Field commanders have been known to trade in intelligence that endangers their men in return for cash.

Sometimes, commanders sit on the allowances of their subordinates. Racketeering in defense and security budgets are not strange to generals who aspire to retire as billionaire real estate moguls and big business people. All this fits snuggly into a socio economic ecosystem in which corruption has since become the other name of public service and state assignments.

Even our cash hungry banking system has informally recognized kidnapping ransom as a source of cash deposits. Ransoms are paid into known bank accounts and hardly any kidnapper- related arrests have been effected through information provided by the banks.

For the police, combating violence and insecurity has become more than the business of maintaining law and order. It is not even crime fighting in its classic meaning. For the military, the nation is neither at war nor at peace. It is in a state of “no man’s land”, a never land where everything goes and all is fair in a war neither declared nor absent. This is a new abnormal.

Yet we cannot accept that this nation is chained to a permanent cycle of violence and insecurity. But in order to restore the sanity of our polity and the values of our society, we need to tackle our insecurity differently. Chasing after squads of bandits with squads of armed soldiers in pickup vans will yield nothing. Deploying drones manned by illiterate soldiers will only lead to more collateral casualties. Bombing villagers in their natural habitats does not recognize the humanity of the defenseless. Killing innocent villagers with sophisticated American fighter jets will harden the hearts of the people against an uncaring state. A headcount of casualties of such reckless bombings in the name of ‘anti insurgency’ is a violation of human rights. Indiscriminately branding innocent casualties as “dead terrorists and bandits “ is an insult on innocent Nigerian villagers simply for the crime that they cannot defend their identity and rights in the English language.

Let us be fair to some chapters of the Nigerian state in the past. Serious concern about insecurity has been part of state thinking for decades. The most systematic was under the Babangida military regime. Towards the end of its tenure, the idea of a National Guard was being implemented. The recognition was that the Nigerian state was not a fully settled idea. There were too many grey zones and areas of unresolved nationalism. Neither the police nor the military was equipped to deal with these unsettled areas. The police was considered too tepid and civil while the military was designed for a more aggressive engagement with outright external enemies. There was a need for an intermediate force to manage the unresolved areas of our nationalism such as the farmer-settler issues in the Middle Belt, the unresolved animosities of the Biafran secession, the seething anger of the porous oil and gas rich Niger Delta and the highly exposed Sahelian northern fringes bordering North Africa. These were the residual tasks of the National Guard.

In subsequent years, the idea of the National Guard was dropped even before it was ever tried in the field. Later civilian dispensations thought of Community Policing but lacked the political will to fully articulate or implement it. Recently, the idea of a State Police structure was considered. No one knows what has become of that idea which is fraught with political and conceptual booby traps.

While the dithering continues, violent insecurity has spread to previously unlikely places like the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja, now the setting for abductions, kidnappings and senseless killings of people even in their very homes. There is no escaping a serious intelligent conversation about violence and insecurity in our land. Fancy military hardware and fiery political rhetoric cannot replace the power of serious thought to restore our humanity as a nation. The abiding question now is: when shall we be serious enough to remove insecurity from our political agenda by ending it permanently in our reality?


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Our Democracy and its Vagrant Elite

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Chidi Amuta

In recent weeks, we seem to have been wrestling with the very idea of democracy. After all, our political system has passed through the Westminster parliamentary system and over three decades of the Washington type presidential system. There is a prolonged assumption that we are indeed a thriving democracy and ought by now to have come to take certain issues for granted. But on a daily basis, our politicians and political elite seem more confused about the essence and meaning of democracy itself. This is clearly an illustration of the vagrant and unserious nature of our political elite.

Surprisingly, however, our political elite has this curious habit of returning to interrogate our democratic credentials ever so frequently. Last week, a major gathering of consequential political voices gathered in Abuja to nark the 60th birthday of former House Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha. It was yet another opportunity to interrogate the efficacy of our democracy and indeed the very appropriateness of our democratic route.

Former President Mr. Olusegun Obasanjo, chairman of the occasion was his predictable cynical self, skeptical as ever about the appropriateness of Western democracy for Africa. His contention was essentially a cultural conservative reservation about the alien roots of democracy as practiced in most African countries. Bishop Kukah in the role of keynote speaker asked the question as to whether democracy has failed in Africa. Former Sokoto State Governor, Aminu  Tambuwal was definitive in disagreeing. For him, democracy has not quite failed in the country or indeed the continent. Peter Obi was non equivocal in asserting that democracy has failed totally in Africa. Segun Adeniyi was typically journalistic in saying that democracy has neither succeeded nor failed in Africa. He instead zeroed in on the individual foibles of the political leadership as unserious mascots of democracy in Africa. Other voices found weaknesses in the practitioners of our democracy, insisting that nothing is wrong with the various concepts of democracy as practiced in Nigeria or indeed Africa.

Pitfalls like corruption, disruptive governance, abuses of due process by politicians have combined to give democracy a bad name.  In all of these attempts to understand the failings of democracy in our country, politicians and the elite have tended to uproot the concept of democracy from is European roots. The fact of mouthing democratic concepts and systems is unfortunately not likely to make us a democracy. Our society has not paid its dues. We have not passed through the economic crucible of evolving a productive economy first before exploring the most apt system of government. In Europe, the

Industrial Revolution and the tyranny of kings and oligarchs preceded the rise of democracy. Similarly, economic independence and the emergence of a political consensus among the urban elite created the necessity for popular democracy as an alternative to monarchical absolutism.

It was this combination of forces that compelled Europe to behead and dethrone kings and queens and overthrow or reform the monarchy in favour of elective popular governance. Representatives of the people took over power through a system of representative democracy to ensure that the taxes paid by the productive populace were spent by representative governments to fund social programs and services. The modern nation state was born on the foundations of elective democracy based on the popular mandate of economically empowered citizens. With democracy, subjects became citizens. Citizens acquired rights and rulers were compelled to accountability to ‘the people’.

Elsewhere especially in Asia where democracy later took roots, it was the rise of authoritarian military regimes which suppressed workers rights,  whittled down civil rights, forced people to fight for the rights they wanted to enjoy and assiduously grew the economies to create the wealth and prosperity that empowered people to demand certain rights and privileges of freedom and representative government. Like in Europe, it was the empowerment of the people that forced them to demand certain rights especially the right of citizenship and political representation.

In each of these instances, democracy was not a ‘given’ handout or arrangement. It was not an organized syndicate or arrangement agreed upon by a departing colonial order and its successor local political elite of trade unionists, traditional rulers and western educated elite as in most African countries. Democracy in either the European West or Asian dictatorships did not emerge in and of itself but as a consequence of compulsive economic and social forces.

In the Nigerian instance, our ‘democracy’ has transformed from an arrangement of colonial selection to one cultivated by self- appointed military dictatorships. Representatives of the people have been selected whether by a colonial order or by an imposed military dictatorship. The popular masses were literally ‘invited’ or coopted into the democratic wagon and taught the rituals of periodic electioneering. Consequently, our democracy has hardly had organic roots in and among the people. At best, the people have been ‘invited’ during election cycles to the seasonal political agenda, told major issues in contention and the major personae contending for power. In the post election periods, the politicians disappeared to the centres of power from where they lord it over the masses until the next election season. In most of Africa and in Nigeria especially, there has not been a process of consciousness creation about the rudiments of democratic culture. At best, democracy has been merely a dialect of political speak.

Democracy is not however a voluntary self -generating force. It is an outcome, a momentum unleashed and driven by social and economic forces of a historical nature such as happened in Europe and Asia. The driving forces include an urgent compulsion by productive working people who demand accountability for their hard earned tax money. It is the vortex of pressure by the masses which wanted their views and perspectives heard and reflected in the way the society was governed and manifested itself. Taxation is guaranteed by representation. That is the basis of accountability in governance which confers power on the people.

Therefore, when modern constitutions and other social contract documents begin with the expression “We the People”, it is a conscious expression of the real power of the people as tax payers, citizens and voters. It is the people’s power of tax money, the power of labor power and the exertions of workers as an organized force that propels the economy. It is in addition the momentum of the cultural solidarity and the willful surrender of the power of independent self- defense in preference for collective security embodied in an elected sovereign. We the people hereby surrender unto you the right and power to preside over us and protect us from one another and from hostile others!

That is the foundation of the Social Contract, the intangible contract that binds the broad majority to the sovereign elected authority who wields state power on the collective behalf of the “people”. Thus is born the modern nation state as the foundation of world order.

Democracy does not give birth to itself nor does it protect and sustain itself. It has certain guardrails in the nature of institutions which it needs to operate and survive. The elected sovereign is a guided executive authority. That authority is guided and guarded along the path of law and order by a judiciary of trained honest judges and a battery of lawyers. An executive not guarded or guided by a judiciary is bound to degenerate into an unregulated anarchy, the lawless Hobbesian state of nature in which the laws of nature reign and bloody violence rules the affairs of men.

In turn, elected conclaves representing the people as a constituent whole are empanelled as parliaments and assemblies to ensure that the affairs of the state reflect the interests of the majority and diversity of the public.

The collective feedback voice of the people is wielded through the power of the media- the agencies of the mass media which function as the unofficial monitor and regulator of the conduct of state and its officials. It does not matter whether the media is the legacy print and electronic media that we have since come to know or the contemporary social media platforms in which everyman is a media owner and practitioner. The functions of the media in a democracy remain basically the same- moderation and modulation of public opinion in the service of the enlightened governance of the state.

The rest of the society whose interests and opinions matter in the progression of the society is what has come to be known as civil society, that amorphous collective of chattering voices in the market of society that is usually the first to gather at the venue of protests against bad governance. It can be organized into pressure groups and interest groups or show uo facelessly as a mob.

The guardian elite of a democracy consists of both the practicing political elite and the broad spectrum of enlightened voices-professionals and interested others with an abiding interest in the survival of the society either as a functioning state or thriving democracy. An elite cannot possibly be illiterate or ignorant. An illiterate or ignorant national elite is a danger to itself and to the perpetuation of the society it pretends to serve and represent. A national elite must share a common commitment to the wellbeing and continuity of the society.  When a bunch of vagrants, casual thugs and unemployed political jobbers control the commanding heights of the political space, the result is a perennial confusion as to the meaning and plight of democracy. Mob rule could be mistaken for democracy.

When illiteracy, ignorance and lack of enlightenment dominates a political space, even the simplest challenges of routine democratic practice are presented as systemic earthquakes. The budget process is often rigged in favor of paddings by the legislators just as the executive muzzles its way through questionable bills. Legislators are not certain how to vote for simple legislations.  Debates on the floor of parliament are either not held at all or are muzzled through the nefarious power of open bribery. Or legislators as licensed thugs scream their way through troublesome sessions.

The executive frequently read or deliberately misinterpret the constitution to serve their narrow political interests. Both unfortunate features have been displayed recklessly with the President’s recent declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State.

Those who are still troubled by the present sorry state of democracy in Nigeria should look even harder at the character of our national elite especially those who call themselves politicians. The time is approaching when we shall ask our political class to educate us on whether politics in Nigeria is a career, a vocation, a profession, a trade or part time unregulated business.


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