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Zimbabwe Heads to the Polls Amid High Inflation, a Slumping Currency and a Cost of Living Crisis

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By Jonathan Munemo

Zimbabwe is facing a host of pressing challenges that voters dearly want the next president to address. Persistently high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a slumping and volatile Zimbabwe dollar have combined to fuel a cost of living crisis for households and battered business activity.

These will be among the key economic concerns weighing on Zimbabweans as they prepare to cast their votes at elections scheduled for late August. President Emmerson Mnangagwa is campaigning to secure a second mandate that will extend his five-year term in power. He will square off against 10 presidential candidates, including the opposition’s main candidate Nelson Chamisa.

Inflation remains sticky and jumped 175.8% in June from 86.5% a month ago. Part of the recent re-acceleration in inflation was triggered by the Zimbabwe dollar’s slide, which plunged 85% in the two months through May and pushed up import costs. Although inflation edged lower in July, it still remains significantly elevated.

The central bank responded by hiking interest rates to 150% from a previously elevated level of 140%. This move intensifies the pullback on business and consumer spending caused by currency weakening. Additionally, the high pace of price growth has outpaced nominal wage growth, leaving many people struggling to afford everyday essentials. Fewer jobs add to these concerns.

Stubbornly high inflation and its negative impact on the value of the Zimbabwe dollar are symptoms of much deeper problems rooted in decades of fiscal and central bank governance weaknesses. That’s why inflation has defied central bank efforts to rein it in with a series of aggressive rate hikes.

The next president will therefore need to push for reforms in governance to tackle deep underlying problems. Otherwise the country will remain locked in a seemingly endless battle to ward off the economic crisis that is being acutely felt by voters.

Governance vulnerabilities

Governance broadly refers to institutions used to exercise authority by the government. Long-running weaknesses in fiscal and central bank governance institutions have undermined the capacity of the government to effectively formulate and implement sound fiscal and monetary policies for many years. Between 2005 and 2008 for example, the government pursued an expansionary fiscal policy. Public spending averaged 8% of GDP.

However, because of weak budgetary processes, spending was less efficient especially in areas critical for supporting stronger growth such as education, health, and public infrastructure. This meant that the economy could not generate more government revenue. Average government revenue collected was only about 5% of GDP over this period. The budget shortfalls were financed by printing money, which undermined the independence and credibility of the central bank. This impaired the central bank’s ability to fulfill its mandate, including supporting price stability.

The influx of printed cash in the economy fanned domestic demand but did nothing to spur the production of goods and services to meet it. Inflation spiked and drove the value of the currency lower, raising the cost of imported goods and thus amplifying inflation pressures.

This dynamic created a feedback loop in which rising inflation and a weakening currency reinforced each other. The result was hyperinflation. In 2008 inflation reached 231 million %, prompting the government to withdraw the weakening Zimbabwe dollar from circulation the following year and to replace it with the US dollar to combat hyperinflation.

In the years following the switch to the US dollar, inflation receded until 2019 when the Zimbabwe dollar was re-introduced. This was done without fixing vulnerabilities in fiscal and monetary governance that had eventually led to the demise of the Zimbabwe dollar in 2009.

Because of these vulnerabilities, inflation skyrocketed to 255% in 2019 – a 23-fold increase from a year earlier as money supply growth quickened from 28% to 250% amid a widening government budget deficit which topped 10% of GDP in 2017. Since then, the central bank has not been able to get a sustained deceleration in inflation despite aggressive rate hikes.

And the negative feedback loop between high inflation and a collapsing local currency was on full display again following the plunge in the currency in recent months. This has made the US dollar more attractive, and it is used more widely to pay for everything from food, fuel, school fees, rent and other services. In February the central bank adopted a new inflation gauge that tracks prices in both Zimbabwean and US dollars to capture this reality. The US dollar is also seen as a haven which has taken on greater importance as inflation remains stubbornly high. In many ways, the return of the Zimbabwe dollar evokes bad memories of the inflation crisis of 2008 which still loom large for many people.

Weaknesses in governance breed corruption

Weaknesses in governance also create opportunities for higher levels of government corruption, which can lead to public spending waste, inefficiencies and lower revenue collection. All worsen budget deficits and add to monetary financing pressures on a central bank lacking independence.

In 2022, Transparency International ranked Zimbabwe 157 out of 180 countries based on perceived levels of public sector corruption, where the lower the rank the higher the perceived corruption. The evidence also showed no significant progress in tackling corruption for more than a decade. Another 2022 survey by Afrobarometer revealed that a staggering 87% of Zimbabweans believe corruption has increased or stayed the same.

A path forward

Zimbabwe’s economy is facing a confluence of challenges: inflation that won’t go away, higher interest rates and a sliding currency. The fallout has included a cost of living crisis, slowing business activity and fewer jobs. These problems are symptoms of deeply embedded structural weaknesses in the economy.

The following reforms are crucial for addressing these structural weaknesses:

  • Fiscal governance reforms to strengthen the budgetary process. This will enhance revenue collection and increase the efficiency of government spending. These reforms should also aim to boost revenue collection by lowering pervasive informality in the economy.
  • Central bank governance reforms to promote autonomy of the bank’s operations, including monetary policy independence which is important for preserving price stability.

In addition, good fiscal governance positively affects central bank governance by reducing the need for central bank financing, which allows a reduction in inflation.

Jonathan Munemo is Professor of Economics, Salisbury University

Courtesy: The Conversation


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Israel’s Expansion in Gaza: A Turning Point in the Conflict and the Future of Palestinian Territory

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Baba Yunus Muhammad

In an alarming escalation, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has announced the “capture of large areas” of the Gaza Strip to be permanently integrated into Israeli “security zones.” This declaration, made on April 15, 2025, signals a dangerous and irreversible shift in the decades-long Israeli occupation: the transition from occupation to de facto annexation.

Israeli airstrikes continue to pummel Khan Younis and Rafah, killing dozens, including women, children, and the elderly. Gaza’s Health Ministry reports over 900 people killed in recent days alone — many of them children. The cumulative death toll now exceeds 50,000, with more than 110,000 injured, many maimed for life. The majority are civilians.

In the most chilling development this week, a mass grave was uncovered in Khan Younis containing the bodies of 15 Palestinian rescue workers — bound, shot, and buried. These were not combatants, but medics and volunteers. The execution-style killings speak to a deepening moral crisis that now grips the conflict.

Strategic Expansion: Occupation Masquerading as Security

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently confirmed Israel’s intentions to create a “second Philadelphi corridor,” effectively carving Gaza into disconnected territories. This would further divide and control the population, while seizing critical border areas along the Egypt-Gaza frontier.

Human rights organizations, including Israel’s own Gisha, warn that Israel has already seized 62 square kilometers of Gaza — nearly one-fifth of the territory — under the guise of “buffer zones.” These so-called zones increasingly resemble permanent annexations. What began as a war is morphing into a land grab, executed under the fog of military necessity.

As one analyst told The Islamic Economist: “This is not just about dismantling Hamas. It is about redrawing the map of Gaza, erasing Palestinian sovereignty, and engineering a demographic reality where Palestinians are forced to leave or live under siege indefinitely.”

Trump Administration and the Shift in American Policy

Under the current Trump administration, Israel enjoys unprecedented diplomatic latitude. Former President Biden opposed any moves to reoccupy Gaza or expel its residents, insisting on a political solution. President Trump, however, has openly spoken of Gaza as a potential “Riviera” and suggested relocating Palestinians to Egypt or Jordan — ideas widely condemned as ethnic cleansing.

Simultaneously, the Israeli government has quietly launched a bureau for the “voluntary transfer” of Gaza’s population. But with Gaza reduced to rubble, its hospitals shut down, bakeries burned, and humanitarian aid blocked, what appears voluntary on paper is, in reality, coerced displacement.

The UN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) have warned that such transfers violate international law, potentially amounting to war crimes. But with a muted response from key Western capitals, including Washington, the machinery of occupation continues unabated.

Deliberate Starvation as a Tool of War

Since January, Israel has imposed a near-total siege on Gaza. Water systems have been destroyed. Fuel is forbidden. Wheat reserves have run out. The United Nations World Food Programme says all bakeries are now closed. Only a few humanitarian kitchens remain — and they too are on the verge of collapse.

The result: Gaza is now facing famine. Children are dying from dehydration and starvation, not just bombs. Diseases are spreading through overcrowded shelters and makeshift camps. The siege is not a byproduct of war — it is the strategy itself.

By making Gaza uninhabitable, Israel appears to be pressuring its civilian population to flee. As history has shown — from the Nakba in 1948 to today — displacement is not a side effect. It is the plan.

Hostages and the Politics of Delay

Israel continues to justify its campaign by citing the 59 hostages held by Hamas since the October 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis. But as families of the hostages grow increasingly vocal, many accuse the government of sacrificing their loved ones for political and territorial gains.

Polls show that the Israeli public now favors a ceasefire deal that brings the hostages home, even if it means withdrawing from Gaza. But the Netanyahu government — emboldened by far-right coalition partners and a sympathetic White House — refuses to halt the offensive.

Hamas, meanwhile, demands a permanent ceasefire and the right to remain in power. Israel insists on total military victory and Hamas’s destruction. The resulting deadlock is costing lives — every day.

A Moment of Reckoning for the Muslim World

The silence from many Muslim capitals is deafening. While some countries have condemned the atrocities, few have taken tangible steps — whether diplomatic, legal, or economic — to halt the carnage. The Ummah watches in horror, but action remains limited.

Yet this is not just a Palestinian issue. It is a moral and existential test for the Islamic world. Gaza is not just being destroyed — it is being erased. If this moment passes without consequence, the precedent will be set: that under the right geopolitical conditions, a people can be displaced, their land seized, and their history rewritten — with impunity.

The Muslim world must ask: what kind of future are we building, if the soil of the Holy Land can be soaked in blood and the world simply watches?

Conclusion: Toward Justice, Not Just Ceasefire

This is not just a war. It is a transformation of Gaza’s geography, identity, and people. The Palestinian struggle is no longer about borders — it is about survival.

The Islamic world, together with all people of conscience, must raise its voice against this unfolding injustice. Ceasefire is no longer enough. What is needed is an international movement — legal, economic, political, and moral — to end the occupation, prevent annexation, and restore dignity and self-determination to the Palestinian people.

Gaza may be small in landmass. But in the story of justice, it has become a vast battlefield for the soul of humanity.


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The Battle for Khartoum: Tracking Sudan’s War over Two Years

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After nearly two years of brutal fighting, Sudan’s civil war is at a critical juncture: the Sudanese Armed Forces announced it has regained control of the capital Khartoum from its rivals, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. It’s yet to be seen if this signals a break in the war or is simply another phase in the fighting. In this article, Kagure Gacheche tracks the conflict since it began in 2023.

Sudan has been engulfed in brutal conflict since 15 April 2023, when tensions between the country’s two most powerful military factions erupted into civil war.

The conflict stems from a long-standing power struggle over military control and integration. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in the capital, Khartoum, and quickly spread across the country. International efforts to broker peace since have largely failed.

The conflict, which has been going on for two years now, has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies. An estimated 30 million Sudanese civilians are in need of aid. Brutal attacks, looting and destruction of infrastructure have become commonplace. Millions of people lack access to essential medical care. Food shortages and economic collapse have worsened the suffering. The war has also triggered a massive displacement crisis, with more than 14 million people forced to flee their homes. Many have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, while others remain trapped in dangerous conditions within Sudan.

As the conflict drags on, the toll on Sudan’s people continues to grow. Estimates of those killed vary widely, from 20,000 to 62,000, but the actual figure could be much larger. With no clear resolution in sight, Sudan’s crisis is one of the most urgent and devastating conflicts in the world. At The Conversation Africa, we have worked with academics who have tracked the conflict since 2023.

Weapons flow

Early on, it was clear that both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary force had a sufficient supply of weapons to sustain a protracted conflict. The country was already awash with firearms. It is ranked second – after Egypt – among its regional neighbours in total firearms estimates. Khristopher Carlson, part of a research project tracking small arms and armed violence in Sudan, noted that the two Sudanese forces might have different fighting methods but were adequately equipped to trade fire. The army’s superiority was its air force and heavy arsenal on the ground. The paramilitary force relied on nimble mobile units equipped primarily with small and light weapons.

External interference

This proliferation of weapons has been compounded by financial and military support from external states. Various foreign players – Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar and Russia – have picked a side to support. However, the influence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has been particularly problematic. Political scientist Federico Donelli explained that the two nations viewed Sudan as a key nation because of its location. Following President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster in 2019, the two monarchies bet on different factions within Sudan’s security apparatus. This external support exacerbated internal competition. Riyadh maintained close ties with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Abu Dhabi aligned itself with the head of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Dagalo, or Hemedti.

Regional dynamics

The support from international players in Sudan’s war has had a damaging effect on regional dynamics. The Sudanese army recently accused the United Arab Emirates of supplying the Rapid Support Forces with weapons through Chad. At a ceremony for an officer killed in a drone strike carried out by paramilitary forces, a senior army official said Chad’s airports would be “legitimate targets” should retaliatory action become necessary. This heightened the risk of a spillover of the Sudanese conflict. Sudan shares borders with seven countries in an unstable region, including Chad, South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Economics professor and legal expert John Mukum Mbaku warned that a spillover of the fighting could devastate the region economically, socially and politically.

Protecting civilians

The conflict has put millions of civilians in Sudan in the crossfire. A UN report in September 2024 called for an independent force to protect civilians; Sudan’s officials rejected the proposal. However, peace talks have yet to achieve a lasting ceasefire. Sudan had a peacekeeping force between 2007 and 2020, followed by a UN-led political mission that exited in February 2024. Since then, there has been no security presence in Sudan responsible for protecting civilians. Peacekeeping researcher Jenna Russo noted the need for a regional or international peace force that could create “green zones”. This would help protect areas where displaced persons were sheltering and facilitate humanitarian aid.

What’s been missing?

High-level peace talks brokered by the African Union and the UN to negotiate a ceasefire have largely been unsuccessful, putting civilians at constant risk. Talks held in Switzerland and Jeddah have had little impact. Philipp Kastner, a peace scholar, highlighted that the countries hosting or supporting these talks were pursuing competing interests in Sudan, which affected their impartiality. Progress to negotiate an end to the war would be unlikely if external military support to the warring parties continued unabated. Civilians would continue to pay the price.

Kagure Gacheche is the commissioning Editor, East Africa.

Courtesy: The Conservation


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Russia-Ukraine War: A Delicate Pause Amid Geopolitical Maneuvering

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B.Y. Muhammad

In a surprising development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to a mutual pause in attacks on energy infrastructure with Russia for 30 days, marking a potential step toward a broader cease-fire. The agreement, facilitated through a phone conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, underscores the shifting dynamics of international involvement in the ongoing conflict.

The Cease-Fire Agreement: Tactical or Strategic?

While the 30-day truce is being framed as a diplomatic breakthrough, there are indications that the Kremlin has not deviated from its broader objectives in Ukraine. Russia’s agreement to pause strikes on energy infrastructure, participate in prisoner exchanges, and discuss security in the Black Sea has been presented as a concession. However, these elements align with longstanding Russian interests, making it unclear whether the Kremlin has genuinely altered its stance or is simply buying time.

Zelensky, while agreeing to the deal, expressed skepticism regarding Russia’s commitment, emphasizing the need for U.S. monitoring. “Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little,” he remarked, underscoring the deep mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow.

Russian Strategy and Western Concerns

Western analysts argue that the Kremlin’s approach remains fundamentally unchanged. Putin’s overarching demand—a complete cessation of foreign military and intelligence support for Ukraine—would, if met, leave Kyiv vulnerable to Russian dominance. While Trump denied discussing aid with Putin, the Kremlin’s statement suggested otherwise, raising questions about the true nature of their discussions.

This development has heightened fears that Moscow is merely playing for time, anticipating that the U.S. may eventually disengage from Ukraine. The timing of this cease-fire agreement, coupled with Russia’s battlefield momentum and growing Western fatigue, suggests that Moscow might be maneuvering for a strategic advantage rather than pursuing genuine peace.

U.S. and Russian Diplomatic Calculations

Trump’s involvement in the negotiations signals a potential shift in U.S. policy. The former president has historically expressed skepticism toward Ukraine’s strategic importance, and his willingness to engage with Putin could indicate a broader recalibration of Washington’s stance. Russia, in turn, appears eager to leverage this opportunity to normalize relations with the U.S. without making significant concessions on Ukraine.

Moscow has already floated the prospect of economic cooperation with American firms, particularly in the rare earth metals and energy sectors. Additionally, discussions have included cultural engagements, such as a proposed U.S.-Russia hockey tournament—seemingly trivial, yet indicative of Russia’s broader attempt to reframe its relationship with Washington beyond the Ukraine conflict.

Implications for Ukraine and the Global Order

For Ukraine, the stakes remain high. While a temporary cessation of hostilities on energy infrastructure provides some relief, the country remains in a precarious position. The prospect of losing its principal backer, the U.S., could force Kyiv into unfavorable compromises that undermine its sovereignty.

For the broader international community, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to reflect a contest not only between two nations but between geopolitical blocs vying for influence. Russia seeks to restore its sphere of control, while the West struggles to maintain a unified front in supporting Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Islamic world, with its historical ties to both Russia and Ukraine, watches closely, balancing economic interests and diplomatic relations in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

While the 30-day cease-fire offers a temporary reprieve, it is far from a definitive step toward peace. The agreement highlights the ongoing complexities of diplomacy in wartime, the strategic calculations of global powers, and the uncertain future of Ukraine’s sovereignty. As negotiations continue, the world waits to see whether this pause will serve as a bridge to lasting peace or merely as a tactical interlude in a protracted conflict.

 


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