Connect with us

POLITICS

Nonsense Comes Calling Next Door

Published

on

Spread the love

By Dr Chidi Amuta

Nigeria’s immediate past president, Muhammadu Buhari, has a tragic sense of humour. His unrelenting indifference to the condition of the humanity of his compatriots often came out in the things he decided to make important or ignore. One of them is his kinship attachment to Niger Republic. In the dying days of his presidency, he seized every opportunity to underline his difficulty in presiding over fellow Nigerians towards who he had an unmistakably condescending attitude.  He either saw us as a bit more difficult to handle than the cattle in his Daura ranch.

At other times, he bragged that his retirement would be more peaceful in Niger Republic than in riotous Nigeria. His preference for Niger Republic was not just a passing fancy or the butt of casual jokes. It was grounded in real attachment backed by dollars. He spent billions of dollars of Nigerian money to fund development projects like rail lines, oil pipelines, refineries etc. in Niger Republic. He even gifted a fleet of luxury SUVs to the government over there, insisting that sometimes we need to love our neighbors more than ourselves if possible.

No one knows what will happen to Buhari’s nostalgic longings for Niger now that his fellow  soldiers have sacked his kinsman, president Bazoum. In what has graduated into a full -scale military coup, the Nigerien military has arrested and put away the president, sacked the government, suspended the constitution and nullified all functions of the democratic state. The two-year old democratic government that enabled the government has therefore been replaced by a military dictatorship. The television footages that have featured the rebellious soldiers does not indicate a group that is likely to hurry off from power no matter what the rest of the world says. In fact, after announcing the new leader as a certain General Abdourahmane Tchiani, former Brigade of Presidential Guards commander who had obviously been eyeing his former boss’s lavish privileges. Buhari is now left with pleading for the physical safety of his toppled kinsman. For now, no one can say what these rapacious soldiers will do if militarily challenged by the international community.

The military putsch in Niger is part of an apparent script that has been travelling all over the West African Sahel in recent times. Similar coups have occurred recently and in rapid succession in Mali, Guinea, Chad, Burkina Faso and, to some extent, Sudan where the clashing ambitions of rival generals and warlords has burst into an open civil war. Nearly all these regressions into autocratic rule are united by certain common factors.

The threat of jihadist terrorism and insurgency in the northernmost parts have created greater insecurity in all these countries. The national armies  have been overwhelmed by jihadist insurgents and fighters. Climate change in the Sahel at large has created more desperate hunger,  poverty and general economic distress in these agriculturally dependent countries. Economic pressure has translated into widespread unrest and urban protests. Protests have graduated into political unrest and dissatisfaction, making partisan democracy and its slovenly rituals untenable and unpopular. The existence of military establishments of ambitious and politicized officers has accelerated the recourse to coups.

The French who used to be the stabilizing influence and force all over French speaking West Africa have in recent times become unpopular and gone into a retreat mode  given the political and economic burden of colonial era influence peddling.  The domestic social and economic situation in France have since made colonial era indulgences rather expensive and untenable. The security  and economic vacuum has in many places been filled by the presence of Russian influence through the Wagner Group private military company which serves as the Kremlin’s external affairs enforcer and buccaneer business frontier force.

Taken together, these factors have combined to suddenly convert the West African region into the world’s next frontier of  global confrontations and strategic instability. The development in Niger Republic has even more added significance.  While the instability raged in the rest of French speaking West Africa, Niger  served as the last outpost of residual Western influence and some stability in an area of trouble. The retreating French forces still have outposts with an estimated 1,500 troops stationed in Niger Republic. The United States AFRICOM African outreach force has a little over 1000 troops stationed in Niger.

In addition, the US has a drone base in Niger as well as  strategic air defense  installations in that country to overlook the troubles in the rest of the Sahel and also Nigeria which, for political reasons, cannot host direct Western military presence. This reporter is aware  that the US outposts in Niger serve as crtical intel feeds to the Nigerian security forces in their anti terrorism  drive. It also serves the Joint Task Force of Niger, Chad, Cameroun and Nigeria with tangential extension to Benin Republic.  At the level of political values, the two -year old democratic government of Mr. Bazoum represents, even if symbolically, the promise of democracy in an area directly confronted by Islamic jihadist terrorists and widespread fundamentalist rascality.

With the coup in Niger Republic, Nigeria is precariously exposed to the real forces of strategic instability in the region. Niger is our immediate northern neighbor with direct extensive land borders with Katsina and Zamfara states. Similarly, Chad, our neighbor to the troubled North East  zone of Borno and Yobe states, is under a military dictatorship after the battlefield  assassination of former president Idris Derby.

These two neighbours now under military dictatorship share borders with Nigeria in an area of clear and present insecurity. Zamfara state has literally been an ungoverned space with bandits traversing freely and operating in defiance of the elected former governor. They exert tributes, impose and collect levies from locals in return for permits to carry out farming activities. A cocktail of foreign rogue miners, official security personnel, local chieftains and bandit enforcers mostly with arms and personnel from across the porous borders make the state a hell hole of insecurity. Scouts of the Wagner Group have reportedly scoped the area for openings while earlier  sending in feelers to the National Assemby in Abuja for an open invitation for mercenary intervention in Nigeria’s counter terrorism crusade. The same situation applies to Chad from where Boko Haram and ISWAP terrorists have tormented many local governments  in Borno and Yobe States respectively while making frantic incursions into ungoverned spaces in the border areas linking Cameroun, Nigeria and Chad.

From a national security viewpoint, therefore, Nigeria’s northern frontiers  are seriously compromised. The façade of democratic continuum between Nigeria, Chad and Niger that used to dress up an umbrella of common interest and shared security  has been fatally altered and punctured. Nigeria’s bulwark of regional security  has shifted southwards to the expanded corridor stretching from Cameroun in the East  to Benin Republic and Togo in the West. Together with these countries and the Atlantic seaboard covering the strategic Gulf of Guinea stretch, the stability of Nigeria and its survival as democracy and free market now depends.  This secueity stretch can only survive through a strengthening of ties with key Western allies. For the avoidance of doubts, Chinese economic and strategic interest in Equatorial Guinea is real as evidenced in the recent commissioning of a major Chinese navel facility in that country. Similarly, Russian influence and interest through the Wagner Group of mercenaries all over West Africa is now self- evident. .

There is therefore a real, credible and urgent national security threat to Nigeria in the developing picture. The presence of military dictatorships sharing common borders with us towards a troubled northern zone is a threat not just to our internal security but also to our democracy since influences travel easily across borders. The challenge for Nigeria in my view is both diplomatic and strategic in a national defense and security sense. Nigeria cannot expect its foreign relations and regional security posture to remain the same as before.

The global power context of West Africa is changing rapidly. The virtual departure of the French as a security stabilization partner and economic force in the region is a tectonic shift. The increasing shift of US security interest from the Middle East is important for the war against terrorism even in the Sahel. The more secure the US homeland becomes against terrorists attacks, its interests in global anti terrorist war will wane. How we handle the jihadist onslaught, the influence of Russia and the spread of military dictatorships around us should be the preoccupation of Nigeria’s foreign policy in the years ahead.

The coup in Niger Republic in particular indicates a tragic failure of intelligence and foreign policy strategic thinking on Nigeria’s part. You cannot claim to be a great regional power if you are incapable of influencing developments in your immediate neighbourhood. Nigeria ought to be in a position to  influence political and security developments in Niger, Chad and Benin. Given our sporadic border disquiet with Cameroun, we ought to be actively interested in political developments in that country as well. But tragically, Mr. Buhari presided over Nigeria for eight years without a sentence being uttered by Abuja on Nigeria’s new foreign policy challenges let alone any indication of a strategy for engagement with neighbours on the most elementary international developments like climate change or cross border refugee movements.

Most importantly, at no time under either Jonathan or Buhari was there any indication in our foreign policy body language that we were conscious of the implications of our democracy for political directions and developments in our immediate neighbourhood. We just drifted along, content in the pathetic illusion that foreign relations and policy only means scrambling the presidential jet at short notice to attend every Boy Scout Movement conference everywhere in the world.  And yet, this is the same Nigeria that decisively intervened to alter, for good, the future histories of Liberia and Sierra Leone. When nations fail or decay, you can tell by what they helplessly allow to happen in their neighbourhood!

In the context of the coup in Niger Republic and what it means for Nigeria’s future external relations, however, the Tinubu administration can still manage to cobble more serious engagement approach. The new president can use his present ceremonial garb as Chairman of ECOWAS to quickly engineer first a West Africa –wide multilateral coalition to compel the junta in Niger to set a deadline for a return to democracy. That could be the lead on to dismantling  other despotisms in the region.  But he and his colleagues will ultimately need to procure an African Union and United Nations mandate backed by reasonable force to discourage further slide of the region into military authoritarianism. The upsurge of military dictatorships in West Africa needs to be communicated to the world as a dangerous international development which, if unchecked, could negatively affect the future history of the rest of Africa at a time when the world is faced with more urgent and serious economic and technological challenges.

Dr Chidi Amuta is a Nigerian Public Affairs Commentator


Spread the love

POLITICS

Israel’s Expansion in Gaza: A Turning Point in the Conflict and the Future of Palestinian Territory

Published

on

By

Spread the love

Baba Yunus Muhammad

In an alarming escalation, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has announced the “capture of large areas” of the Gaza Strip to be permanently integrated into Israeli “security zones.” This declaration, made on April 15, 2025, signals a dangerous and irreversible shift in the decades-long Israeli occupation: the transition from occupation to de facto annexation.

Israeli airstrikes continue to pummel Khan Younis and Rafah, killing dozens, including women, children, and the elderly. Gaza’s Health Ministry reports over 900 people killed in recent days alone — many of them children. The cumulative death toll now exceeds 50,000, with more than 110,000 injured, many maimed for life. The majority are civilians.

In the most chilling development this week, a mass grave was uncovered in Khan Younis containing the bodies of 15 Palestinian rescue workers — bound, shot, and buried. These were not combatants, but medics and volunteers. The execution-style killings speak to a deepening moral crisis that now grips the conflict.

Strategic Expansion: Occupation Masquerading as Security

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently confirmed Israel’s intentions to create a “second Philadelphi corridor,” effectively carving Gaza into disconnected territories. This would further divide and control the population, while seizing critical border areas along the Egypt-Gaza frontier.

Human rights organizations, including Israel’s own Gisha, warn that Israel has already seized 62 square kilometers of Gaza — nearly one-fifth of the territory — under the guise of “buffer zones.” These so-called zones increasingly resemble permanent annexations. What began as a war is morphing into a land grab, executed under the fog of military necessity.

As one analyst told The Islamic Economist: “This is not just about dismantling Hamas. It is about redrawing the map of Gaza, erasing Palestinian sovereignty, and engineering a demographic reality where Palestinians are forced to leave or live under siege indefinitely.”

Trump Administration and the Shift in American Policy

Under the current Trump administration, Israel enjoys unprecedented diplomatic latitude. Former President Biden opposed any moves to reoccupy Gaza or expel its residents, insisting on a political solution. President Trump, however, has openly spoken of Gaza as a potential “Riviera” and suggested relocating Palestinians to Egypt or Jordan — ideas widely condemned as ethnic cleansing.

Simultaneously, the Israeli government has quietly launched a bureau for the “voluntary transfer” of Gaza’s population. But with Gaza reduced to rubble, its hospitals shut down, bakeries burned, and humanitarian aid blocked, what appears voluntary on paper is, in reality, coerced displacement.

The UN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) have warned that such transfers violate international law, potentially amounting to war crimes. But with a muted response from key Western capitals, including Washington, the machinery of occupation continues unabated.

Deliberate Starvation as a Tool of War

Since January, Israel has imposed a near-total siege on Gaza. Water systems have been destroyed. Fuel is forbidden. Wheat reserves have run out. The United Nations World Food Programme says all bakeries are now closed. Only a few humanitarian kitchens remain — and they too are on the verge of collapse.

The result: Gaza is now facing famine. Children are dying from dehydration and starvation, not just bombs. Diseases are spreading through overcrowded shelters and makeshift camps. The siege is not a byproduct of war — it is the strategy itself.

By making Gaza uninhabitable, Israel appears to be pressuring its civilian population to flee. As history has shown — from the Nakba in 1948 to today — displacement is not a side effect. It is the plan.

Hostages and the Politics of Delay

Israel continues to justify its campaign by citing the 59 hostages held by Hamas since the October 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis. But as families of the hostages grow increasingly vocal, many accuse the government of sacrificing their loved ones for political and territorial gains.

Polls show that the Israeli public now favors a ceasefire deal that brings the hostages home, even if it means withdrawing from Gaza. But the Netanyahu government — emboldened by far-right coalition partners and a sympathetic White House — refuses to halt the offensive.

Hamas, meanwhile, demands a permanent ceasefire and the right to remain in power. Israel insists on total military victory and Hamas’s destruction. The resulting deadlock is costing lives — every day.

A Moment of Reckoning for the Muslim World

The silence from many Muslim capitals is deafening. While some countries have condemned the atrocities, few have taken tangible steps — whether diplomatic, legal, or economic — to halt the carnage. The Ummah watches in horror, but action remains limited.

Yet this is not just a Palestinian issue. It is a moral and existential test for the Islamic world. Gaza is not just being destroyed — it is being erased. If this moment passes without consequence, the precedent will be set: that under the right geopolitical conditions, a people can be displaced, their land seized, and their history rewritten — with impunity.

The Muslim world must ask: what kind of future are we building, if the soil of the Holy Land can be soaked in blood and the world simply watches?

Conclusion: Toward Justice, Not Just Ceasefire

This is not just a war. It is a transformation of Gaza’s geography, identity, and people. The Palestinian struggle is no longer about borders — it is about survival.

The Islamic world, together with all people of conscience, must raise its voice against this unfolding injustice. Ceasefire is no longer enough. What is needed is an international movement — legal, economic, political, and moral — to end the occupation, prevent annexation, and restore dignity and self-determination to the Palestinian people.

Gaza may be small in landmass. But in the story of justice, it has become a vast battlefield for the soul of humanity.


Spread the love
Continue Reading

POLITICS

The Battle for Khartoum: Tracking Sudan’s War over Two Years

Published

on

By

Spread the love

After nearly two years of brutal fighting, Sudan’s civil war is at a critical juncture: the Sudanese Armed Forces announced it has regained control of the capital Khartoum from its rivals, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. It’s yet to be seen if this signals a break in the war or is simply another phase in the fighting. In this article, Kagure Gacheche tracks the conflict since it began in 2023.

Sudan has been engulfed in brutal conflict since 15 April 2023, when tensions between the country’s two most powerful military factions erupted into civil war.

The conflict stems from a long-standing power struggle over military control and integration. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in the capital, Khartoum, and quickly spread across the country. International efforts to broker peace since have largely failed.

The conflict, which has been going on for two years now, has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies. An estimated 30 million Sudanese civilians are in need of aid. Brutal attacks, looting and destruction of infrastructure have become commonplace. Millions of people lack access to essential medical care. Food shortages and economic collapse have worsened the suffering. The war has also triggered a massive displacement crisis, with more than 14 million people forced to flee their homes. Many have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, while others remain trapped in dangerous conditions within Sudan.

As the conflict drags on, the toll on Sudan’s people continues to grow. Estimates of those killed vary widely, from 20,000 to 62,000, but the actual figure could be much larger. With no clear resolution in sight, Sudan’s crisis is one of the most urgent and devastating conflicts in the world. At The Conversation Africa, we have worked with academics who have tracked the conflict since 2023.

Weapons flow

Early on, it was clear that both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary force had a sufficient supply of weapons to sustain a protracted conflict. The country was already awash with firearms. It is ranked second – after Egypt – among its regional neighbours in total firearms estimates. Khristopher Carlson, part of a research project tracking small arms and armed violence in Sudan, noted that the two Sudanese forces might have different fighting methods but were adequately equipped to trade fire. The army’s superiority was its air force and heavy arsenal on the ground. The paramilitary force relied on nimble mobile units equipped primarily with small and light weapons.

External interference

This proliferation of weapons has been compounded by financial and military support from external states. Various foreign players – Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar and Russia – have picked a side to support. However, the influence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has been particularly problematic. Political scientist Federico Donelli explained that the two nations viewed Sudan as a key nation because of its location. Following President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster in 2019, the two monarchies bet on different factions within Sudan’s security apparatus. This external support exacerbated internal competition. Riyadh maintained close ties with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Abu Dhabi aligned itself with the head of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Dagalo, or Hemedti.

Regional dynamics

The support from international players in Sudan’s war has had a damaging effect on regional dynamics. The Sudanese army recently accused the United Arab Emirates of supplying the Rapid Support Forces with weapons through Chad. At a ceremony for an officer killed in a drone strike carried out by paramilitary forces, a senior army official said Chad’s airports would be “legitimate targets” should retaliatory action become necessary. This heightened the risk of a spillover of the Sudanese conflict. Sudan shares borders with seven countries in an unstable region, including Chad, South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Economics professor and legal expert John Mukum Mbaku warned that a spillover of the fighting could devastate the region economically, socially and politically.

Protecting civilians

The conflict has put millions of civilians in Sudan in the crossfire. A UN report in September 2024 called for an independent force to protect civilians; Sudan’s officials rejected the proposal. However, peace talks have yet to achieve a lasting ceasefire. Sudan had a peacekeeping force between 2007 and 2020, followed by a UN-led political mission that exited in February 2024. Since then, there has been no security presence in Sudan responsible for protecting civilians. Peacekeeping researcher Jenna Russo noted the need for a regional or international peace force that could create “green zones”. This would help protect areas where displaced persons were sheltering and facilitate humanitarian aid.

What’s been missing?

High-level peace talks brokered by the African Union and the UN to negotiate a ceasefire have largely been unsuccessful, putting civilians at constant risk. Talks held in Switzerland and Jeddah have had little impact. Philipp Kastner, a peace scholar, highlighted that the countries hosting or supporting these talks were pursuing competing interests in Sudan, which affected their impartiality. Progress to negotiate an end to the war would be unlikely if external military support to the warring parties continued unabated. Civilians would continue to pay the price.

Kagure Gacheche is the commissioning Editor, East Africa.

Courtesy: The Conservation


Spread the love
Continue Reading

POLITICS

Russia-Ukraine War: A Delicate Pause Amid Geopolitical Maneuvering

Published

on

By

Spread the love

B.Y. Muhammad

In a surprising development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to a mutual pause in attacks on energy infrastructure with Russia for 30 days, marking a potential step toward a broader cease-fire. The agreement, facilitated through a phone conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, underscores the shifting dynamics of international involvement in the ongoing conflict.

The Cease-Fire Agreement: Tactical or Strategic?

While the 30-day truce is being framed as a diplomatic breakthrough, there are indications that the Kremlin has not deviated from its broader objectives in Ukraine. Russia’s agreement to pause strikes on energy infrastructure, participate in prisoner exchanges, and discuss security in the Black Sea has been presented as a concession. However, these elements align with longstanding Russian interests, making it unclear whether the Kremlin has genuinely altered its stance or is simply buying time.

Zelensky, while agreeing to the deal, expressed skepticism regarding Russia’s commitment, emphasizing the need for U.S. monitoring. “Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little,” he remarked, underscoring the deep mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow.

Russian Strategy and Western Concerns

Western analysts argue that the Kremlin’s approach remains fundamentally unchanged. Putin’s overarching demand—a complete cessation of foreign military and intelligence support for Ukraine—would, if met, leave Kyiv vulnerable to Russian dominance. While Trump denied discussing aid with Putin, the Kremlin’s statement suggested otherwise, raising questions about the true nature of their discussions.

This development has heightened fears that Moscow is merely playing for time, anticipating that the U.S. may eventually disengage from Ukraine. The timing of this cease-fire agreement, coupled with Russia’s battlefield momentum and growing Western fatigue, suggests that Moscow might be maneuvering for a strategic advantage rather than pursuing genuine peace.

U.S. and Russian Diplomatic Calculations

Trump’s involvement in the negotiations signals a potential shift in U.S. policy. The former president has historically expressed skepticism toward Ukraine’s strategic importance, and his willingness to engage with Putin could indicate a broader recalibration of Washington’s stance. Russia, in turn, appears eager to leverage this opportunity to normalize relations with the U.S. without making significant concessions on Ukraine.

Moscow has already floated the prospect of economic cooperation with American firms, particularly in the rare earth metals and energy sectors. Additionally, discussions have included cultural engagements, such as a proposed U.S.-Russia hockey tournament—seemingly trivial, yet indicative of Russia’s broader attempt to reframe its relationship with Washington beyond the Ukraine conflict.

Implications for Ukraine and the Global Order

For Ukraine, the stakes remain high. While a temporary cessation of hostilities on energy infrastructure provides some relief, the country remains in a precarious position. The prospect of losing its principal backer, the U.S., could force Kyiv into unfavorable compromises that undermine its sovereignty.

For the broader international community, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to reflect a contest not only between two nations but between geopolitical blocs vying for influence. Russia seeks to restore its sphere of control, while the West struggles to maintain a unified front in supporting Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Islamic world, with its historical ties to both Russia and Ukraine, watches closely, balancing economic interests and diplomatic relations in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

While the 30-day cease-fire offers a temporary reprieve, it is far from a definitive step toward peace. The agreement highlights the ongoing complexities of diplomacy in wartime, the strategic calculations of global powers, and the uncertain future of Ukraine’s sovereignty. As negotiations continue, the world waits to see whether this pause will serve as a bridge to lasting peace or merely as a tactical interlude in a protracted conflict.

 


Spread the love
Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2024 Focus on Halal Economy | Powered by Africa Islamic Economic Forum