POLITICS
Mali is Still Unsafe under the Military: Why it Hasn’t Made Progress against Rebels and Terrorists
Published
10 months agoon
By
Editor
Scores of Malian soldiers and Russian mercenaries were recently killed in an ambush by a group of Tuareg rebels with links to al-Qaeda. Security scholars Oluwole Ojewale, Freedom Onuoha and Samuel Oyewole explain why Mali continues to witness increasing rebel attacks.
The scale of casualties suffered by the Wagner group and Malian forces during a recent assault in the Tinzaouaten region reveal vulnerability in Mali’s counterinsurgency posture. The attack was reported in the media as the biggest loss for Russian paramilitaries in several years of operating in Africa. Although there are conflicting reports, at least 80 Russian mercenaries and an undisclosed number of Malian soldiers were killed in an ambush by Tuareg rebels operating alongside the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin – an al-Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel.
The crisis in Mali has four layers. They are the protracted Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali; terrorism by jihadist groups; communal conflict; and military incursion into politics, which has kept some stakeholders out of governance. The situation hasn’t improved in spite of a 2020 military coup. The coup leaders claimed that they intervened to prevent further chaos. They exploited anti-French sentiment to garner support from citizens. But Mali continues to witness repeated terror attacks and there is a resurgence of rebellion.
As scholars of security and strategic studies, we have been researching violent extremism, terrorism, insurgency, crisis management and state fragility in Africa. We argue that in spite of the populist rhetoric by Malian military government and some recent success, there are at least three reasons for the continuing insecurity.
One is the government’s inability to adapt to the changing dynamics of counterinsurgency operations. Second is the failure to appreciate the significance of terrain and air capability. And lastly, there is the limited military assistance and foreign influence undermining counterinsurgency operations. To turn the tide against rising insecurity, Malian counterinsurgency forces must adapt and respond effectively to these factors.
Incidents of attack
Following the coup, the Mali-led junta severed ties with France. It also masterminded the exit of the UN mission from Mali, and strengthened security cooperation with Russia. It also championed the Liptako-Gourma Charter that birthed the Alliance of Sahel States established with Burkina Faso and Niger.
The emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States led to the division of west African states into two blocs: the pro-west and liberal democratic group, and the pro-Russian and junta-led group. Despite their pledge to enhance security in the area, incidents of political violence in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have collectively risen by 5% in 2023 (a 46% increase from 2021).
As reported by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, there has been a 38% rise in violence directed at civilians in Mali in 2023. The primary groups responsible for these assaults are Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and IS Sahel. The Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin has carried out extensive attacks on military installations and blockaded towns and key transport routes, as the figure below shows.

Changing dynamics
Insurgencies often evolve over time. If the counterinsurgency forces fail to adapt or respond effectively to these changes, they can become less effective. The conflict in northern Mali has intensified. Battles and attacks are occurring in new regions, as a result of military actions and the involvement of the Wagner Group. The situation is made worse by the resurgence of armed confrontation with the Tuareg rebels who in 2015 had agreed to the Algiers Accord to end the Mali war.
To understand the failure of Mali’s counterinsurgency operations in its northern region, it is crucial to examine the geographical context. Mali is on the western flank of the Sahel, a broad buffer between north and sub-Saharan Africa, both geographically and culturally. This region of Africa makes up a major zone of ungoverned spaces. Northern Mali lies within this zone, and the location of the recent ambush is an expansive area with limited state presence where jihadi and Tuareg factions have been active for an extended period.
Terrain and air capability
Mali is dry and mostly flat. The northern border with Algeria spans 2,000km and is poorly secured. The nature of these frontiers makes it easier for the insurgents to see an approaching enemy in advance. The Malian military doesn’t have sufficient resources and advanced military assets to replace the security architecture placed at its disposal by defunct multilateral and bilateral military missions.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the country’s air capabilities. Air power is central to counterinsurgency operations. Light attack aircraft, helicopters and combat drones are key to providing close air support in an effective and timely manner. They also have to remain present in the combat area and promptly respond to emerging threats on a fluid and unpredictable battlefield.
Mali’s armed forces have, in recent years, received a range of military equipment, from armoured vehicles and helicopters to C295 light transport aircraft. In 2022 Bamako received some Russian ground-attack aircraft and attack helicopters. Mali has some 2,000 personnel in its air force, with 20 combat capable aircraft and seven attack helicopters.
Limited military assistance and foreign influence
With the departure of international military support missions, any progress made in the last decade towards improving general military capability of the country is now at risk. This is because Mali has moved from multiple military partnerships to a sole dependence on Russia. Russia is currently incapable of providing support to Mali due to the war in Ukraine, which has forced the Kremlin to scavenge for armaments in Iran and North Korea.
Finally, Mali’s counterinsurgency operation underestimated the possible role of foreign actors. Foreign actors can give rise to strategic and operational failures in military operations through proxy warfare, supply chain disruption and encouraging defections, among others. For instance, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency has claimed that it was involved in the recent ambush of Malian soldiers and Russian mercenaries.
Way forward
As junta-led Mali struggles to fend off threats from various armed non-state actors, its counterinsurgency approach requires an overhaul. Attention should focus on the fragility of the state, porosity of its border, strained military capabilities, and geopolitical fallout from the Russian-Ukraine crisis.
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POLITICS
Israel’s Expansion in Gaza: A Turning Point in the Conflict and the Future of Palestinian Territory
Published
2 months agoon
April 16, 2025By
Editor
Baba Yunus Muhammad
In an alarming escalation, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has announced the “capture of large areas” of the Gaza Strip to be permanently integrated into Israeli “security zones.” This declaration, made on April 15, 2025, signals a dangerous and irreversible shift in the decades-long Israeli occupation: the transition from occupation to de facto annexation.
Israeli airstrikes continue to pummel Khan Younis and Rafah, killing dozens, including women, children, and the elderly. Gaza’s Health Ministry reports over 900 people killed in recent days alone — many of them children. The cumulative death toll now exceeds 50,000, with more than 110,000 injured, many maimed for life. The majority are civilians.
In the most chilling development this week, a mass grave was uncovered in Khan Younis containing the bodies of 15 Palestinian rescue workers — bound, shot, and buried. These were not combatants, but medics and volunteers. The execution-style killings speak to a deepening moral crisis that now grips the conflict.
Strategic Expansion: Occupation Masquerading as Security
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently confirmed Israel’s intentions to create a “second Philadelphi corridor,” effectively carving Gaza into disconnected territories. This would further divide and control the population, while seizing critical border areas along the Egypt-Gaza frontier.
Human rights organizations, including Israel’s own Gisha, warn that Israel has already seized 62 square kilometers of Gaza — nearly one-fifth of the territory — under the guise of “buffer zones.” These so-called zones increasingly resemble permanent annexations. What began as a war is morphing into a land grab, executed under the fog of military necessity.
As one analyst told The Islamic Economist: “This is not just about dismantling Hamas. It is about redrawing the map of Gaza, erasing Palestinian sovereignty, and engineering a demographic reality where Palestinians are forced to leave or live under siege indefinitely.”
Trump Administration and the Shift in American Policy
Under the current Trump administration, Israel enjoys unprecedented diplomatic latitude. Former President Biden opposed any moves to reoccupy Gaza or expel its residents, insisting on a political solution. President Trump, however, has openly spoken of Gaza as a potential “Riviera” and suggested relocating Palestinians to Egypt or Jordan — ideas widely condemned as ethnic cleansing.
Simultaneously, the Israeli government has quietly launched a bureau for the “voluntary transfer” of Gaza’s population. But with Gaza reduced to rubble, its hospitals shut down, bakeries burned, and humanitarian aid blocked, what appears voluntary on paper is, in reality, coerced displacement.
The UN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) have warned that such transfers violate international law, potentially amounting to war crimes. But with a muted response from key Western capitals, including Washington, the machinery of occupation continues unabated.
Deliberate Starvation as a Tool of War
Since January, Israel has imposed a near-total siege on Gaza. Water systems have been destroyed. Fuel is forbidden. Wheat reserves have run out. The United Nations World Food Programme says all bakeries are now closed. Only a few humanitarian kitchens remain — and they too are on the verge of collapse.
The result: Gaza is now facing famine. Children are dying from dehydration and starvation, not just bombs. Diseases are spreading through overcrowded shelters and makeshift camps. The siege is not a byproduct of war — it is the strategy itself.
By making Gaza uninhabitable, Israel appears to be pressuring its civilian population to flee. As history has shown — from the Nakba in 1948 to today — displacement is not a side effect. It is the plan.
Hostages and the Politics of Delay
Israel continues to justify its campaign by citing the 59 hostages held by Hamas since the October 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis. But as families of the hostages grow increasingly vocal, many accuse the government of sacrificing their loved ones for political and territorial gains.
Polls show that the Israeli public now favors a ceasefire deal that brings the hostages home, even if it means withdrawing from Gaza. But the Netanyahu government — emboldened by far-right coalition partners and a sympathetic White House — refuses to halt the offensive.
Hamas, meanwhile, demands a permanent ceasefire and the right to remain in power. Israel insists on total military victory and Hamas’s destruction. The resulting deadlock is costing lives — every day.
A Moment of Reckoning for the Muslim World
The silence from many Muslim capitals is deafening. While some countries have condemned the atrocities, few have taken tangible steps — whether diplomatic, legal, or economic — to halt the carnage. The Ummah watches in horror, but action remains limited.
Yet this is not just a Palestinian issue. It is a moral and existential test for the Islamic world. Gaza is not just being destroyed — it is being erased. If this moment passes without consequence, the precedent will be set: that under the right geopolitical conditions, a people can be displaced, their land seized, and their history rewritten — with impunity.
The Muslim world must ask: what kind of future are we building, if the soil of the Holy Land can be soaked in blood and the world simply watches?
Conclusion: Toward Justice, Not Just Ceasefire
This is not just a war. It is a transformation of Gaza’s geography, identity, and people. The Palestinian struggle is no longer about borders — it is about survival.
The Islamic world, together with all people of conscience, must raise its voice against this unfolding injustice. Ceasefire is no longer enough. What is needed is an international movement — legal, economic, political, and moral — to end the occupation, prevent annexation, and restore dignity and self-determination to the Palestinian people.
Gaza may be small in landmass. But in the story of justice, it has become a vast battlefield for the soul of humanity.
POLITICS
The Battle for Khartoum: Tracking Sudan’s War over Two Years
Published
3 months agoon
April 2, 2025By
Editor
After nearly two years of brutal fighting, Sudan’s civil war is at a critical juncture: the Sudanese Armed Forces announced it has regained control of the capital Khartoum from its rivals, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. It’s yet to be seen if this signals a break in the war or is simply another phase in the fighting. In this article, Kagure Gacheche tracks the conflict since it began in 2023.
Sudan has been engulfed in brutal conflict since 15 April 2023, when tensions between the country’s two most powerful military factions erupted into civil war.
The conflict stems from a long-standing power struggle over military control and integration. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in the capital, Khartoum, and quickly spread across the country. International efforts to broker peace since have largely failed.
The conflict, which has been going on for two years now, has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies. An estimated 30 million Sudanese civilians are in need of aid. Brutal attacks, looting and destruction of infrastructure have become commonplace. Millions of people lack access to essential medical care. Food shortages and economic collapse have worsened the suffering. The war has also triggered a massive displacement crisis, with more than 14 million people forced to flee their homes. Many have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, while others remain trapped in dangerous conditions within Sudan.
As the conflict drags on, the toll on Sudan’s people continues to grow. Estimates of those killed vary widely, from 20,000 to 62,000, but the actual figure could be much larger. With no clear resolution in sight, Sudan’s crisis is one of the most urgent and devastating conflicts in the world. At The Conversation Africa, we have worked with academics who have tracked the conflict since 2023.
Weapons flow
Early on, it was clear that both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary force had a sufficient supply of weapons to sustain a protracted conflict. The country was already awash with firearms. It is ranked second – after Egypt – among its regional neighbours in total firearms estimates. Khristopher Carlson, part of a research project tracking small arms and armed violence in Sudan, noted that the two Sudanese forces might have different fighting methods but were adequately equipped to trade fire. The army’s superiority was its air force and heavy arsenal on the ground. The paramilitary force relied on nimble mobile units equipped primarily with small and light weapons.
External interference
This proliferation of weapons has been compounded by financial and military support from external states. Various foreign players – Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar and Russia – have picked a side to support. However, the influence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has been particularly problematic. Political scientist Federico Donelli explained that the two nations viewed Sudan as a key nation because of its location. Following President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster in 2019, the two monarchies bet on different factions within Sudan’s security apparatus. This external support exacerbated internal competition. Riyadh maintained close ties with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Abu Dhabi aligned itself with the head of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Dagalo, or Hemedti.
Regional dynamics
The support from international players in Sudan’s war has had a damaging effect on regional dynamics. The Sudanese army recently accused the United Arab Emirates of supplying the Rapid Support Forces with weapons through Chad. At a ceremony for an officer killed in a drone strike carried out by paramilitary forces, a senior army official said Chad’s airports would be “legitimate targets” should retaliatory action become necessary. This heightened the risk of a spillover of the Sudanese conflict. Sudan shares borders with seven countries in an unstable region, including Chad, South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Economics professor and legal expert John Mukum Mbaku warned that a spillover of the fighting could devastate the region economically, socially and politically.
Protecting civilians
The conflict has put millions of civilians in Sudan in the crossfire. A UN report in September 2024 called for an independent force to protect civilians; Sudan’s officials rejected the proposal. However, peace talks have yet to achieve a lasting ceasefire. Sudan had a peacekeeping force between 2007 and 2020, followed by a UN-led political mission that exited in February 2024. Since then, there has been no security presence in Sudan responsible for protecting civilians. Peacekeeping researcher Jenna Russo noted the need for a regional or international peace force that could create “green zones”. This would help protect areas where displaced persons were sheltering and facilitate humanitarian aid.
What’s been missing?
High-level peace talks brokered by the African Union and the UN to negotiate a ceasefire have largely been unsuccessful, putting civilians at constant risk. Talks held in Switzerland and Jeddah have had little impact. Philipp Kastner, a peace scholar, highlighted that the countries hosting or supporting these talks were pursuing competing interests in Sudan, which affected their impartiality. Progress to negotiate an end to the war would be unlikely if external military support to the warring parties continued unabated. Civilians would continue to pay the price.
Kagure Gacheche is the commissioning Editor, East Africa.
Courtesy: The Conservation
POLITICS
Russia-Ukraine War: A Delicate Pause Amid Geopolitical Maneuvering
Published
3 months agoon
March 20, 2025By
Editor
B.Y. Muhammad
In a surprising development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to a mutual pause in attacks on energy infrastructure with Russia for 30 days, marking a potential step toward a broader cease-fire. The agreement, facilitated through a phone conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, underscores the shifting dynamics of international involvement in the ongoing conflict.
The Cease-Fire Agreement: Tactical or Strategic?
While the 30-day truce is being framed as a diplomatic breakthrough, there are indications that the Kremlin has not deviated from its broader objectives in Ukraine. Russia’s agreement to pause strikes on energy infrastructure, participate in prisoner exchanges, and discuss security in the Black Sea has been presented as a concession. However, these elements align with longstanding Russian interests, making it unclear whether the Kremlin has genuinely altered its stance or is simply buying time.
Zelensky, while agreeing to the deal, expressed skepticism regarding Russia’s commitment, emphasizing the need for U.S. monitoring. “Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little,” he remarked, underscoring the deep mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow.
Russian Strategy and Western Concerns
Western analysts argue that the Kremlin’s approach remains fundamentally unchanged. Putin’s overarching demand—a complete cessation of foreign military and intelligence support for Ukraine—would, if met, leave Kyiv vulnerable to Russian dominance. While Trump denied discussing aid with Putin, the Kremlin’s statement suggested otherwise, raising questions about the true nature of their discussions.
This development has heightened fears that Moscow is merely playing for time, anticipating that the U.S. may eventually disengage from Ukraine. The timing of this cease-fire agreement, coupled with Russia’s battlefield momentum and growing Western fatigue, suggests that Moscow might be maneuvering for a strategic advantage rather than pursuing genuine peace.
U.S. and Russian Diplomatic Calculations
Trump’s involvement in the negotiations signals a potential shift in U.S. policy. The former president has historically expressed skepticism toward Ukraine’s strategic importance, and his willingness to engage with Putin could indicate a broader recalibration of Washington’s stance. Russia, in turn, appears eager to leverage this opportunity to normalize relations with the U.S. without making significant concessions on Ukraine.
Moscow has already floated the prospect of economic cooperation with American firms, particularly in the rare earth metals and energy sectors. Additionally, discussions have included cultural engagements, such as a proposed U.S.-Russia hockey tournament—seemingly trivial, yet indicative of Russia’s broader attempt to reframe its relationship with Washington beyond the Ukraine conflict.
Implications for Ukraine and the Global Order
For Ukraine, the stakes remain high. While a temporary cessation of hostilities on energy infrastructure provides some relief, the country remains in a precarious position. The prospect of losing its principal backer, the U.S., could force Kyiv into unfavorable compromises that undermine its sovereignty.
For the broader international community, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to reflect a contest not only between two nations but between geopolitical blocs vying for influence. Russia seeks to restore its sphere of control, while the West struggles to maintain a unified front in supporting Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Islamic world, with its historical ties to both Russia and Ukraine, watches closely, balancing economic interests and diplomatic relations in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
While the 30-day cease-fire offers a temporary reprieve, it is far from a definitive step toward peace. The agreement highlights the ongoing complexities of diplomacy in wartime, the strategic calculations of global powers, and the uncertain future of Ukraine’s sovereignty. As negotiations continue, the world waits to see whether this pause will serve as a bridge to lasting peace or merely as a tactical interlude in a protracted conflict.

In Memoriam: Professor Khurshid Ahmad (1932–2025). An Intellectual Giant and Father of Islamic Economics.

Absent from Abuja, Present in Paris

Collateral Damage: The Global Fallout of Trump’s USAID Cuts
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