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Africa’s Ageing Leaders: Succession Race in Cameroon, Congo and Equatorial Guinea could Destabilize the Region

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By Serge Loungou

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea is 82 and has been in power for 45 years. Denis Sassou Nguesso of Congo, 79, has held on to power for 40 years. Cameroon’s Paul Biya is 91 and has been president for 42 years. Their extended tenures are largely due to a lack of constitutional limits on presidential age and terms in their countries. These three cases of political endurance aren’t unprecedented in Africa: Félix Houphouët-Boigny led Côte d’Ivoire for 33 years, Gnassingbé Eyadema remained at the helm in Togo for 40 years and Omar Bongo Ondimba reigned over Gabon for 42 years.

As such leaders approach an end-of-reign phase, intense succession rivalries tend to play out. These rivalries are fuelled by deep-seated conflicts within presidential families, and can lead to prolonged social and political instability. I have researched the geopolitical issues in central Africa and explored political transition prospects in Equatorial Guinea, Congo and Cameroon. In a recent article, I analysed the risks of destabilisation posed by succession conflicts in these three countries – and their potential impact on neighbouring regions.

The potential for political transition in Equatorial Guinea, Congo and Cameroon is notable given the “twilight” phase of their long-serving leaders. This transition was also seen in the last years of power of the long-serving Ivorian, Togolese and Gabonese presidents.

The signs of a twilight phase include:

  • frequent and increasingly extended health-related absences of the heads of state
  • growing discord and dissonance within decision-making circles of the ruling camps
  • intensified power struggles within the president’s political and family networks
  • rising ambitions within the presidential camp to attain the highest office
  • a noticeable detachment from the public’s basic concerns.

How things might pan out

Equatorial Guinea’s and Congo’s regimes favour dynastic power transitions. In contrast, hereditary succession is unlikely to play out in Cameroon, but party power struggles could complicate the political transition.

Presidential clans come with complexity. They have intricate alliances and networks centred on the leader. As the leader’s authority wanes due to age or illness, unity within these clans fractures. This is driven by:

  • power struggles among the leader’s children from different mothers
  • disputes over economic monopolies and resources
  • growing conspiracies within the inner circle
  • the disgrace and repression of perceived “traitors” and their allies.

These factors could contribute to unstable succession prospects in Equatorial Guinea and the Congo.

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo succeeded his uncle Francisco Macias Nguema Biyogo, the first president of Equatorial Guinea, following a coup d’état in 1979. With the exception of Pascal Lissouba (1992-1997), who was a native of the south of the country, presidential power in the Congo has been in the hands of the northerners since a 1968 coup d’état. The significant political influence wielded by Mbasogo’s many children fuels the potential of an upcoming hereditary succession.

The push for family succession aims to protect the presidential clan’s interests in the state and military apparatus after the leader’s death. This is driven by the memory of disinheritance faced by past ruling families (such as Central African Republic’s Jean Bedel Bokassa, Democratic Republic of Congo’s Mobutu Sese Seko, Angola’s José Eduardo Dos Santos and Gabon’s Omar Bongo). There are also often fears of political and judicial repercussions.

In Cameroon, the president has excluded his family from political roles. Instead, Biya has maintained tight control and eliminated internal rivalries. Despite this, his political record offers no assurance of a smooth transition.

The impending departure of the current leaders in all three countries – Equatorial Guinea, the Congo and Cameroon – could jeopardise their stability. This could spill over into the region.

Rivalry in Equatorial Guinea

Mbasogo’s successor will likely be a member of his clan. The question is who. Will it be Teodorin Nguema Obiang, the eldest son, better known for his spending sprees than his statesmanship? His rise to strategic positions (vice-president of the republic) and the overt support of his mother, the first lady, seem to signal his potential ascent to head of state.

Equatorial Guinea’s Vice-President Teodoro Nguema Obiang at the UN headquarters in New York in September 2023. Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images

There’s also Gabriel Mbega Obiang Lima, the youngest son, with a mother from São Tomé and Príncipe. He has held several ministerial dockets, and currently oversees mines and oil. Lima’s perceived “seriousness” has made him a favourite among influential Chinese and western investors in the country.

Conflict over inheritance in Congo

In Congo, succession is complicated by family conflicts. President Nguesso’s son, Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso, is rumoured to be seeking the presidency. His mother is from the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo. But Denis faces opposition from his cousins: Jean-Dominique Okemba, head of the intelligence service, and Edgard Nguesso, a senior military officer and director of presidential assets.

Congo’s turbulent political history heightens concerns about the upcoming transition. A north-south ethno-political divide has fostered deep-seated resentment among local communities, particularly between their elites. Political dissent is now prevalent, especially in the north, which has traditionally been the regime’s stronghold.

After he regained power through military means in 1997, the president refocused on his ethnic group, the Mbochis. This shift has alienated other ethnic groups from Nguesso’s home region. They include the Kouyou, Makoua and Téké who have increasingly voiced their grievances. These northern elites are feeling marginalised and are, therefore, likely to oppose any perceived attempts at dynastic succession.

In the south, the civil war (1997-2001) deepened the long-standing mistrust of the “northern regime” among the Kongo-Lari ethnic group. The prospect of dynastic succession is likely to stir up old grievances.

The reactivation of dissent in the southern region after Nguesso’s contentious re-election in 2016 highlights the lingering threat of civil war in the country. Although the suppression of political and military forces from contested regions reduces the likelihood of opposition, the dynastic handover plan could still provoke significant unrest.

There are still residual armed factions in the south. This supports the possibility of a resurgence of resistance in areas opposed to the regime.

Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso, Congo’s minister for international cooperation, in Abidjan in June 2023. Issouf Sanago/AFP via Getty Images

Cameroon’s inter-community tensions

With Biya excluding his family from political roles, the possibility of dynastic succession is unlikely. However, with Cameroon due to hold presidential elections in 2025, two major challenges to a smooth transition stand out:

  • the lack of an official successor within the ruling party
  • uncertainty about the process of selecting a party candidate for the presidential election.

This could lead to numerous claimants for the position, potentially igniting internal conflicts within the party. These power struggles could deepen existing identity-based divisions.

The rivalry between the Bulu-Béti (south) and Bamiléké (west) communities epitomises the inter-community tensions threatening the country’s stability. This rivalry is driven by a quest for dominance among political and intellectual elites.

Traditionally focused on economic activities, the Bamiléké are now increasingly showing national political ambitions. This has raised concerns among the Bulu-Béti elite.

The contested 2018 presidential election results and the ethnic slurs that followed highlight ongoing tensions in the country. These dynamics are likely to shape the political landscape leading up to the 2025 elections.

Serge Loungou is enseignant-chercheur, Université Omar Bongo (UOB).

Courtesy: The Conversation


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POLITICS

Israel’s Expansion in Gaza: A Turning Point in the Conflict and the Future of Palestinian Territory

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Baba Yunus Muhammad

In an alarming escalation, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has announced the “capture of large areas” of the Gaza Strip to be permanently integrated into Israeli “security zones.” This declaration, made on April 15, 2025, signals a dangerous and irreversible shift in the decades-long Israeli occupation: the transition from occupation to de facto annexation.

Israeli airstrikes continue to pummel Khan Younis and Rafah, killing dozens, including women, children, and the elderly. Gaza’s Health Ministry reports over 900 people killed in recent days alone — many of them children. The cumulative death toll now exceeds 50,000, with more than 110,000 injured, many maimed for life. The majority are civilians.

In the most chilling development this week, a mass grave was uncovered in Khan Younis containing the bodies of 15 Palestinian rescue workers — bound, shot, and buried. These were not combatants, but medics and volunteers. The execution-style killings speak to a deepening moral crisis that now grips the conflict.

Strategic Expansion: Occupation Masquerading as Security

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently confirmed Israel’s intentions to create a “second Philadelphi corridor,” effectively carving Gaza into disconnected territories. This would further divide and control the population, while seizing critical border areas along the Egypt-Gaza frontier.

Human rights organizations, including Israel’s own Gisha, warn that Israel has already seized 62 square kilometers of Gaza — nearly one-fifth of the territory — under the guise of “buffer zones.” These so-called zones increasingly resemble permanent annexations. What began as a war is morphing into a land grab, executed under the fog of military necessity.

As one analyst told The Islamic Economist: “This is not just about dismantling Hamas. It is about redrawing the map of Gaza, erasing Palestinian sovereignty, and engineering a demographic reality where Palestinians are forced to leave or live under siege indefinitely.”

Trump Administration and the Shift in American Policy

Under the current Trump administration, Israel enjoys unprecedented diplomatic latitude. Former President Biden opposed any moves to reoccupy Gaza or expel its residents, insisting on a political solution. President Trump, however, has openly spoken of Gaza as a potential “Riviera” and suggested relocating Palestinians to Egypt or Jordan — ideas widely condemned as ethnic cleansing.

Simultaneously, the Israeli government has quietly launched a bureau for the “voluntary transfer” of Gaza’s population. But with Gaza reduced to rubble, its hospitals shut down, bakeries burned, and humanitarian aid blocked, what appears voluntary on paper is, in reality, coerced displacement.

The UN and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) have warned that such transfers violate international law, potentially amounting to war crimes. But with a muted response from key Western capitals, including Washington, the machinery of occupation continues unabated.

Deliberate Starvation as a Tool of War

Since January, Israel has imposed a near-total siege on Gaza. Water systems have been destroyed. Fuel is forbidden. Wheat reserves have run out. The United Nations World Food Programme says all bakeries are now closed. Only a few humanitarian kitchens remain — and they too are on the verge of collapse.

The result: Gaza is now facing famine. Children are dying from dehydration and starvation, not just bombs. Diseases are spreading through overcrowded shelters and makeshift camps. The siege is not a byproduct of war — it is the strategy itself.

By making Gaza uninhabitable, Israel appears to be pressuring its civilian population to flee. As history has shown — from the Nakba in 1948 to today — displacement is not a side effect. It is the plan.

Hostages and the Politics of Delay

Israel continues to justify its campaign by citing the 59 hostages held by Hamas since the October 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis. But as families of the hostages grow increasingly vocal, many accuse the government of sacrificing their loved ones for political and territorial gains.

Polls show that the Israeli public now favors a ceasefire deal that brings the hostages home, even if it means withdrawing from Gaza. But the Netanyahu government — emboldened by far-right coalition partners and a sympathetic White House — refuses to halt the offensive.

Hamas, meanwhile, demands a permanent ceasefire and the right to remain in power. Israel insists on total military victory and Hamas’s destruction. The resulting deadlock is costing lives — every day.

A Moment of Reckoning for the Muslim World

The silence from many Muslim capitals is deafening. While some countries have condemned the atrocities, few have taken tangible steps — whether diplomatic, legal, or economic — to halt the carnage. The Ummah watches in horror, but action remains limited.

Yet this is not just a Palestinian issue. It is a moral and existential test for the Islamic world. Gaza is not just being destroyed — it is being erased. If this moment passes without consequence, the precedent will be set: that under the right geopolitical conditions, a people can be displaced, their land seized, and their history rewritten — with impunity.

The Muslim world must ask: what kind of future are we building, if the soil of the Holy Land can be soaked in blood and the world simply watches?

Conclusion: Toward Justice, Not Just Ceasefire

This is not just a war. It is a transformation of Gaza’s geography, identity, and people. The Palestinian struggle is no longer about borders — it is about survival.

The Islamic world, together with all people of conscience, must raise its voice against this unfolding injustice. Ceasefire is no longer enough. What is needed is an international movement — legal, economic, political, and moral — to end the occupation, prevent annexation, and restore dignity and self-determination to the Palestinian people.

Gaza may be small in landmass. But in the story of justice, it has become a vast battlefield for the soul of humanity.


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The Battle for Khartoum: Tracking Sudan’s War over Two Years

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After nearly two years of brutal fighting, Sudan’s civil war is at a critical juncture: the Sudanese Armed Forces announced it has regained control of the capital Khartoum from its rivals, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. It’s yet to be seen if this signals a break in the war or is simply another phase in the fighting. In this article, Kagure Gacheche tracks the conflict since it began in 2023.

Sudan has been engulfed in brutal conflict since 15 April 2023, when tensions between the country’s two most powerful military factions erupted into civil war.

The conflict stems from a long-standing power struggle over military control and integration. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in the capital, Khartoum, and quickly spread across the country. International efforts to broker peace since have largely failed.

The conflict, which has been going on for two years now, has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies. An estimated 30 million Sudanese civilians are in need of aid. Brutal attacks, looting and destruction of infrastructure have become commonplace. Millions of people lack access to essential medical care. Food shortages and economic collapse have worsened the suffering. The war has also triggered a massive displacement crisis, with more than 14 million people forced to flee their homes. Many have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, while others remain trapped in dangerous conditions within Sudan.

As the conflict drags on, the toll on Sudan’s people continues to grow. Estimates of those killed vary widely, from 20,000 to 62,000, but the actual figure could be much larger. With no clear resolution in sight, Sudan’s crisis is one of the most urgent and devastating conflicts in the world. At The Conversation Africa, we have worked with academics who have tracked the conflict since 2023.

Weapons flow

Early on, it was clear that both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary force had a sufficient supply of weapons to sustain a protracted conflict. The country was already awash with firearms. It is ranked second – after Egypt – among its regional neighbours in total firearms estimates. Khristopher Carlson, part of a research project tracking small arms and armed violence in Sudan, noted that the two Sudanese forces might have different fighting methods but were adequately equipped to trade fire. The army’s superiority was its air force and heavy arsenal on the ground. The paramilitary force relied on nimble mobile units equipped primarily with small and light weapons.

External interference

This proliferation of weapons has been compounded by financial and military support from external states. Various foreign players – Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar and Russia – have picked a side to support. However, the influence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has been particularly problematic. Political scientist Federico Donelli explained that the two nations viewed Sudan as a key nation because of its location. Following President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster in 2019, the two monarchies bet on different factions within Sudan’s security apparatus. This external support exacerbated internal competition. Riyadh maintained close ties with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Abu Dhabi aligned itself with the head of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Dagalo, or Hemedti.

Regional dynamics

The support from international players in Sudan’s war has had a damaging effect on regional dynamics. The Sudanese army recently accused the United Arab Emirates of supplying the Rapid Support Forces with weapons through Chad. At a ceremony for an officer killed in a drone strike carried out by paramilitary forces, a senior army official said Chad’s airports would be “legitimate targets” should retaliatory action become necessary. This heightened the risk of a spillover of the Sudanese conflict. Sudan shares borders with seven countries in an unstable region, including Chad, South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Economics professor and legal expert John Mukum Mbaku warned that a spillover of the fighting could devastate the region economically, socially and politically.

Protecting civilians

The conflict has put millions of civilians in Sudan in the crossfire. A UN report in September 2024 called for an independent force to protect civilians; Sudan’s officials rejected the proposal. However, peace talks have yet to achieve a lasting ceasefire. Sudan had a peacekeeping force between 2007 and 2020, followed by a UN-led political mission that exited in February 2024. Since then, there has been no security presence in Sudan responsible for protecting civilians. Peacekeeping researcher Jenna Russo noted the need for a regional or international peace force that could create “green zones”. This would help protect areas where displaced persons were sheltering and facilitate humanitarian aid.

What’s been missing?

High-level peace talks brokered by the African Union and the UN to negotiate a ceasefire have largely been unsuccessful, putting civilians at constant risk. Talks held in Switzerland and Jeddah have had little impact. Philipp Kastner, a peace scholar, highlighted that the countries hosting or supporting these talks were pursuing competing interests in Sudan, which affected their impartiality. Progress to negotiate an end to the war would be unlikely if external military support to the warring parties continued unabated. Civilians would continue to pay the price.

Kagure Gacheche is the commissioning Editor, East Africa.

Courtesy: The Conservation


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POLITICS

Russia-Ukraine War: A Delicate Pause Amid Geopolitical Maneuvering

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B.Y. Muhammad

In a surprising development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to a mutual pause in attacks on energy infrastructure with Russia for 30 days, marking a potential step toward a broader cease-fire. The agreement, facilitated through a phone conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, underscores the shifting dynamics of international involvement in the ongoing conflict.

The Cease-Fire Agreement: Tactical or Strategic?

While the 30-day truce is being framed as a diplomatic breakthrough, there are indications that the Kremlin has not deviated from its broader objectives in Ukraine. Russia’s agreement to pause strikes on energy infrastructure, participate in prisoner exchanges, and discuss security in the Black Sea has been presented as a concession. However, these elements align with longstanding Russian interests, making it unclear whether the Kremlin has genuinely altered its stance or is simply buying time.

Zelensky, while agreeing to the deal, expressed skepticism regarding Russia’s commitment, emphasizing the need for U.S. monitoring. “Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little,” he remarked, underscoring the deep mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow.

Russian Strategy and Western Concerns

Western analysts argue that the Kremlin’s approach remains fundamentally unchanged. Putin’s overarching demand—a complete cessation of foreign military and intelligence support for Ukraine—would, if met, leave Kyiv vulnerable to Russian dominance. While Trump denied discussing aid with Putin, the Kremlin’s statement suggested otherwise, raising questions about the true nature of their discussions.

This development has heightened fears that Moscow is merely playing for time, anticipating that the U.S. may eventually disengage from Ukraine. The timing of this cease-fire agreement, coupled with Russia’s battlefield momentum and growing Western fatigue, suggests that Moscow might be maneuvering for a strategic advantage rather than pursuing genuine peace.

U.S. and Russian Diplomatic Calculations

Trump’s involvement in the negotiations signals a potential shift in U.S. policy. The former president has historically expressed skepticism toward Ukraine’s strategic importance, and his willingness to engage with Putin could indicate a broader recalibration of Washington’s stance. Russia, in turn, appears eager to leverage this opportunity to normalize relations with the U.S. without making significant concessions on Ukraine.

Moscow has already floated the prospect of economic cooperation with American firms, particularly in the rare earth metals and energy sectors. Additionally, discussions have included cultural engagements, such as a proposed U.S.-Russia hockey tournament—seemingly trivial, yet indicative of Russia’s broader attempt to reframe its relationship with Washington beyond the Ukraine conflict.

Implications for Ukraine and the Global Order

For Ukraine, the stakes remain high. While a temporary cessation of hostilities on energy infrastructure provides some relief, the country remains in a precarious position. The prospect of losing its principal backer, the U.S., could force Kyiv into unfavorable compromises that undermine its sovereignty.

For the broader international community, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to reflect a contest not only between two nations but between geopolitical blocs vying for influence. Russia seeks to restore its sphere of control, while the West struggles to maintain a unified front in supporting Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Islamic world, with its historical ties to both Russia and Ukraine, watches closely, balancing economic interests and diplomatic relations in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

While the 30-day cease-fire offers a temporary reprieve, it is far from a definitive step toward peace. The agreement highlights the ongoing complexities of diplomacy in wartime, the strategic calculations of global powers, and the uncertain future of Ukraine’s sovereignty. As negotiations continue, the world waits to see whether this pause will serve as a bridge to lasting peace or merely as a tactical interlude in a protracted conflict.

 


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