Thousands Killed, Millions Displaced – the Conflict in Sudan, Three Months in

By Nino Omer

The conflict in Sudan began in the middle of April, with a power struggle between two rival military factions. The Sudanese army, led by the country’s de facto leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, went head to head with the RSF, a collection of militia who follow Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. In 2019, the two groups were largely in alignment, as they helped oust Sudan’s former authoritarian leader Omar Bashir to create a tentative power-sharing government with civilian groups. This dissolved in 2021 after a military coup involving the Sudanese army and the RSF, which derailed Sudan’s short-lived move into democracy.

In the years since the factions have turned on each other, after negotiations to integrate the RSF into the Sudanese army soured – the primary question being who would defer to who in their new setup. The fault line became fatal in mid-April, after the two groups began battling for control. Over 90 days later, the battle continues.

War crimes

The international criminal court’s (ICC) prosecutor announced that he is investigating new war crimes and crimes against humanity in the country’s West Darfur region – a part of Sudan that 20 years ago was ravaged by atrocities and violence – after a mass grave was found. The 87 victims were mostly Masalit, a largely African farming ethnic group which has been the target of attacks by Arab militias.

The ICC’s prosecutor said that the world and Sudan is “in peril of allowing history to repeat itself”. As the RSF fights the Sudanese army in the country’s capital, Khartoum, the paramilitary group has been accused of waging another war in Darfur where the Janjaweed militias – the group that the RSF evolved out of – were accused of genocide nearly two decades ago.

The RSF are being accused of continuing that same war now, attacking civilians in their homes and levelling huge parts of El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur. Those who speak out can expect a brutal, even fatal, response: seven activists have been killed in El Geneina after reportedly receiving threats from the militias. And last month a regional governor, Khamis Abakar, was abducted by men in RSF uniforms and murdered hours after he publicly accused the paramilitary group and its Arab military allies of genocide (the RSF has denied involvement in the death of Abakar and of any genocidal activity).

The ICC is also looking into the burning of homes, looting, and is giving priority to crimes against children and sexual and gender-based violence.

A route to peace?

Several countries that neighbour Sudan – Ethiopia, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya, and South Sudan – have been affected by their own political upheavals and conflicts in recent years. As such, there are fears that prolonged and intensified fighting in Sudan could further destabilise a region that is already in a precarious position.

Egypt is particularly worried about the fallout of this conflict, particularly on its economy and border. Last week, Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sissi led the most high-profile meeting about the conflict, attended by leaders of the other six countries closest to Sudan (those above, plus Eritrea), in an attempt to establish a lasting ceasefire. Neither the RSF nor the Sudanese army attended the summit, but they did praise the gathering on social media. El-Sissi encouraged the two sides to come to the table during an African Union-led negotiation during which all fighting would stop.

The summit has not been welcomed by everyone, however. Before it took place, Sudan’s ambassador to Egypt responded frostily to the cross-country discussions about Sudan’s situation, saying that “outside forces” were effectively meddling and that including so many parties was further complicating the situation.

Life for those still in Sudan

Before the conflict even began, Sudan was facing political unrest, rising inflation and extreme weather shocks. For the tens of millions of Sudanese people still in the country, their living conditions have declined even further over the last three months. The UN is predicting that between 2 and 2.5 million more people are likely going to face acute hunger in the coming months.

Despite the adverse effects on the economy, civilians, and the infrastructure of Sudan, neither side has shown any inclination of backing down. Towards the end of last week, the military shelled a market in Omdurman, the country’s most populous city, killing 30 people, mostly women and children. Residents described it as the worst week for civilian casualties since the conflict began. The previous weekend, 38 people were killed in the same city during an airstrike.

The UK has announced that it is following in the footsteps of the US and will be sanctioning companies linked to both the army and the RSF, and the UN is closely following the situation. But as Sudan’s cities continue to burn, it is hard to envisage any meaningful steps being made towards some kind of truce.

Courtesy: The Guardian