Baba Yunus Muhammad
The recent escalation in trade hostilities between the United States and China marks more than a simple dispute over tariffs. It represents a fundamental realignment of global economic relations. The Islamic world—stretching from Southeast Asia to West Africa—must now confront the reality of a fracturing global economy and seize the opportunity to forge a more sovereign, values-based path.
On April 9, former U.S. President Donald Trump intensified tensions by announcing a dramatic increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, raising duties to 125% and threatening to cut off all negotiations if Beijing responds in kind. China, for its part, has vowed retaliation, raising tariffs to 70% on American imports and signaling a shift toward economic self-sufficiency.
This mutual escalation is not merely a continuation of earlier trade disputes—it is a declaration of economic war. The global economy is now entering an era where the assumptions of interdependence, free trade, and economic globalization no longer hold. Instead, we are witnessing the emergence of competing economic spheres, driven not just by market considerations but by geopolitical strategy and national identity.
The Unraveling of Globalization
The decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies has been years in the making. What began as negotiations over trade imbalances and intellectual property rights has grown into a broader ideological contest. Trump’s latest tariffs were framed not as a bargaining tool but as a matter of national defense and political positioning. In Beijing, the message is equally firm: China will not bend under pressure and is prepared for a protracted confrontation.
For the rest of the world, the consequences will be profound. Supply chains will be disrupted. Commodity prices will fluctuate. Investment flows will shrink or shift. Economies deeply reliant on exports or external financing will be particularly vulnerable.
Among these, many Muslim-majority countries find themselves caught in a precarious position. While benefiting from globalization’s promise of open markets and foreign capital, they have remained largely dependent on industrial powers—either Western or Chinese—for critical imports, investment, and technology.
The Islamic World’s Strategic Dilemma
This new trade war should serve as a wake-up call. For too long, Islamic countries have been passive participants in global economic dynamics, rather than architects of their own collective future. The current rupture in global trade offers an unprecedented opportunity to pivot—to rethink priorities, assert sovereignty, and develop resilient, ethical economies grounded in Islamic principles.
First, there is a clear need to strengthen intra-Islamic trade. Despite the presence of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), trade between member states remains far below potential. Structural barriers—ranging from tariff and non-tariff restrictions to poor logistics infrastructure—continue to prevent the emergence of a unified Islamic economic bloc. Efforts must be redoubled to create integrated halal supply chains, harmonized certification systems, and shared development banks.
Second, Islamic finance must play a central role. With assets exceeding $3 trillion, Islamic finance offers a model of ethical, risk-sharing financial systems that emphasize real economic activity, discourage speculative bubbles, and prohibit exploitative interest. In times of global uncertainty, these principles provide a stabilizing foundation for long-term development.
Third, there must be a shift from consumption to production. Many Muslim economies have prioritized raw commodity exports and consumer-driven growth, while neglecting industrialization, technological innovation, and higher education. A coordinated push to invest in science, research, and digital infrastructure—perhaps modeled on joint initiatives between Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Nigeria—could position the Islamic world as a center for knowledge and creativity in the post-globalization era.
Fourth, the global halal economy represents a major growth frontier. Valued at over $3 trillion across food, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and fashion, the halal market is projected to grow significantly. Yet Islamic countries remain underrepresented in its global value chain. Greater cooperation is needed to turn the halal economy into a true engine of industrial development and global trade.
A Call to Leadership and Unity
The stakes are high. As the U.S. and China descend further into economic confrontation, nations across the Global South will be forced to choose sides—or suffer the collateral damage. But the Islamic world need not be a passive victim. With strategic foresight, solidarity, and commitment to its foundational values, it can chart a course that avoids entanglement in great power rivalries while advancing the welfare of its people.
This moment calls for new forms of leadership—visionary leaders who can convene regional economic summits, establish shared development funds, and articulate a coherent strategy for economic self-determination. The time has come for the Islamic world to recognize its collective power—not merely as a bloc of consumers or resource suppliers, but as a civilization with a distinct economic philosophy and global relevance.
In this unfolding global realignment, passivity is not an option. The trade war is real. The consequences are serious. But so too is the opportunity—to build an Islamic economic renaissance rooted in justice, resilience, and strategic independence.
Baba Yunus Muhammad is President of the Africa Islamic Economic Forum, Ghana. He is a researcher and strategic advisor on Islamic economics and geopolitical affairs.
