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INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

Ugly Street Dance in Conakry

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By Dr Chidi Amuta

Recent footage from the Guinean capital of Conakry is not good. Following last week’s coup that toppled the government of Alpha Conde, spontaneous jubilations and wild elation prompted excited mobs to troop out in street song and dance. They were celebrating the overthrow of a government that they ought to be defending; a democratic government. Soldiers paid to guard the nation and protect those who govern it arrested and put away the president, sacked the parliament and suspended the constitution. Among the jubilant throngs, the dominant mood was a curious combination of ‘freedom’ from something self- imposed and the embrace of something more familiar. Guineans have lived most of their lives under a succession of military dictators. The Alpha Conde government was the first elected government they have ever known. After a decade under democracy, the jubilant crowds were curiously welcoming the opposite of democracy. Hardly anyone was seen protesting against the return of dictatorship.

The coup d’etat in Guinea is the fifth in less than five years in countries in the Sahel and West African region. Sudan, Mali(twice), Chad and now Guinea have recently witnessed the return of a familiar African political ailment: military coups. On 11th April, 2019, the Sudanese military took down the authoritarian but elected government of Omar al- Bashir whose human rights abuses were legion. But civil society groups stubbornly protested the return of the military and insisted on a power sharing arrangement. A deal was brokered between the military and the pro democracy organizations for a power sharing arrangement leading to an eventual transition to civil rule. Al-Bashir was ferried off to the Hague to answer to charges of serial rights abuses and crimes against humanity for which the International Criminal Court had previously indicted him.

In Mali, it was a combination of persistent insecurity in the north following a prolonged Tuareg jihadist insurgency and protracted partisan political firefights that powered two military coups in quick succession. Feverish diplomatic pressure from West African leaders and France helped broker a hybrid transition arrangement with the involvement of some civilian politicians in a predominantly military government. In Chad, a rather suspicious battlefield assassination of Idris Deby ended his protracted and corrupt family autocracy in that poor and parched country.

The immediate Guinean instance bears familiar African imprints. Guinea has from independence been ruled by a succession of military autocrats since after the death of its founding leader Sekou Toure in 1984. The military overthrew his immediate successor in March of the same year and largely remained in power till the election of the recently toppled government of Alpha Conde ten years ago. Conde, a former opposition leader, was the first elected leader in the history of the impoverished but mineral rich country. Guinea has huge deposits of iron ore and bauxite exploited in mines mostly owned by French and Chinese interests.

The deposed President Alpha Conde serially violated the codes of democratic governance. He used parliament to alter the constitutional term limit from two terms to a give himself a renewable third term. The election for his third term was characterized by malpractices. Violent civil unrest and protests followed. Conde beat down the protests with characteristic ferocity and repression, leading to detentions and deaths. Just before he was overthrown last week, worsening economic conditions fed widespread public disenchantment and a palpable popularity deficit. In defiance of the public mood, the president approved pay increases for himself and parliamentarians while foolishly cutting the salaries of public servants and the security forces including soldiers. Worsening economic conditions had led to higher prices of utilities and essential supplies with increasing poverty and hardship among the urban populace. A predictable clampdown on opposition politicians and the media formed the immediate backdrop to this coup.

The soldiers, led by Col. Mamadi Doumbouya, have indicated that they wrested power from a selfish political elite in order to return control of the country to ‘the people’. The coup leader, an elite officer trained in the United States and France and whose wife is currently serving with French security has made speeches echoing the temper of late Ghanaian leader and veteran coup maker, John Jerry Rawlings. This is a subtle indication of some superficial revolutionary preference in an age that abhors left leaning revolutions and favours liberal democratic governments no matter how imperfect .

The United Nations, ECOWAS, the African Union and major world democracies have unanimously condemned the coup in Guinea. ECOWAS has suspended Guinea and blockaded its borders. Widespread international condemnations of coups are of course predictable as democracy has become the universal currency of political reality and discourse. There is a threadbare consensus that the worst democracy is better than the best military dictatorship. That axiom has not however excluded coups from the global register as we have witnessed in Myanmar and now Guinea.

In the international condemnations of the coup in Guinea, one country stands out, namely, China. It has become an axiom of modern day Chinese foreign policy not to meddle in the internal affairs of African countries where it has been busy investing and executing huge low interest rate infrastructure projects. Guinea presents a somewhat different scenario. China has vast interests in the bauxite and iron deposits and mines of the country. The background of the new coup leader as a US trained and Western friendly officer has raised China’s antenna in its unfolding global face off with the United States. Next to Guinea, China’s major source of iron ore and bauxite is Australia, a country that China considers essentially adversarial in the long run. Therefore, China’s condemnation of the coup in Guinea and its call for the release of the former president may in fact be quite strategic. But the coup has wider and more consequential implications for the future of democracy in Africa going forward than the agenda in the back pockets of mineral hungry global powers.

In all the instances of the recent coups in Africa, elected governments have been replaced by military dictatorships in a growing trend that is reminiscent of Africa from the mid 1960s to the mid 1990s. Coups to topple fragile civilian governments are fairly easy undertakings for military establishments spoilt by long years of power and privilege. Worse still, in environments where bad governance under elected rulers has aggravated social and economic hardship, illegitimate change has seemed logical and inevitable.

In a good number of African countries, democracy has become more a manner of speaking in a language spoken by a minority elite. Alienated from the populace and consumed in the pursuit of its narrow group interest, elites elected into office under the label of democracy have gotten so entrenched that honest democratic means seem powerless in replacing them. In consequence, the populace embrace undemocratic political change as the only alternative to achieve much needed change.

Therefore, bland universalist responses to reversals in African democracy fail to understand the unique problems of democracy in a continent still blighted by poverty, ignorance and bad governance. First, African countries are at different stages of development even if they share fairly common historical circumstances. In real terms, democracy remains a manner of speaking in a continent where an essentially elite political leadership mostly connects with the people only during election seasons. It is only in a minority number of African countries where leaders have engaged the people to give meaning to democracy as a lived experience.

In such places, we have seen recent instances of the honest pursuit of the common good and welfare of the people as the essence of democratic governance. In today’s Africa, we can think mostly of Botswana, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Ghana, and perhaps a bit of South Africa as the most effective democracies in Africa. It is no wonder that most of these countries are also among the best performing and fastest growing economies on the continent. Ethiopia averaged 10.3% in 2019 as Africa’s fastest growing economy. It was followed by Rwanda and Tanzania in the league of Africa’s fastest growing economies from 2001 to 2017. The tempting conclusion therefore is that the countries that deliver better democratic experience for their populace also have more effective governance and economic growth prospects.

We cannot however expect democracy in Africa to travel exactly the same trajectory as what happened in Europe. The factors that led to the development of democratic culture in the West are peculiar and historically specific. The industrial revolution, popular literacy, the emergence of a middle class, the sacking of monarchies, the emergence of parliaments, the emergence of the press and public opinion as well as the concept of the separation of powers. Above all, there was the universalization of education through the democratization of literacy which equipped men and women to know their rights and understand their limitations.

It ought to concern African democrats that in practically all the recent instances of coups that have toppled Africa’s fragile democracies, the knee jerk condemnations by world leaders and organizations have been countered by street dances celebrating the overthrow of these elected ‘democratic’ governments. In almost all these instances, the ready excuses of coup makers have been the familiar ones of worsening economic conditions leading to political tension and increasing insecurity. This touches on the betrayal of the very foundation of democracy itself which is the common good defined loosely as the welfare of the people. In most of ‘democratic’ modern Africa, the adoption of democracy has unfortunately translated into ‘bi-polar states’. These are states in which the government and ‘the people’ exist as separate, tangential and even opposing realities. The government thrives on the formal appearance and benefits of democratic order while the people suffer the consequences and burden of formal democracy.

Part of Africa’s crisis of leadership has been identified as a predominance of strong men and a deficit of strong institutions. The military as an institution of the modern African state has suffered serial crises. In its repeated incursions in the politics of different countries, most African military establishments have not managed to regain the doctrine of their ultimate subordination to elected civilian authority. Nor have the new African democratic leaders managed to reverse the doctrinal misdirection of Africa’s military. The protection of national sovereignty for which the military is constitutionally established does not include the usurpation of political authority from elected leaders. There needs to be an urgent debate as to whether poor African countries that have no forseeable external threats even need standing armies.

The pursuit of the external trappings and formats of democracy-parliaments, bureaucracies, the pomp and pageantry of power and the funding of the paraphernalia of officialdom- have often overwhelmed the common good in their costly implications. The ordinary people whose welfare ought to be the measure of the relevance and effectiveness of government have often ended up as mere spectators, watching the ritual of government from the sidelines. This alienation is deepened by dire economic conditions which weaken the will of the people and render them helpless in determining the fate and tenure of the very governments that they elected into office. Desperation results and the people either resign to fate and superstition or are primed to welcome undemocratic change as a path to salvation.

Therefore, the most effective route to the consolidation of democracy in Africa is effective and relevant governance. The governments emplaced by democracy must address the urgent problems of human capital development in areas such as healthcare, education, security and even basic nutrition. A higher degree of accountability has also become imperative. Most importantly, African democracies must become incrementally participatory if they must become meaningful to a vastly illiterate populace. Elected governments must engage more with the people in the process of governance in a manner that translates democracy into the daily experience of the people. Only then can rights become natural entitlements and electorates become forces of control against the excesses of selfish elites.

Recent developments in African democracy should resonate with Nigeria. Nigerians have spent 26 years out of 61 years of independence under intermittent democratic rule. The rest of 31 years were years of military dictatorship. Of the years of ‘democratic’ rule, 14 years have so far been spent under former military dictators (Obasanjo and Buhari) who claim to be democracy converts. Overall, therefore, the dominant political culture that governs the sensibility of Nigerians is essentially authoritarian. Our governments have not shaken off the instincts of dictatorship just as our populace still carry the remnants of subjugation and subservience. Our institutions especially the armed and security forces still carry the psychological remnants of decades of oppression and violent authoritarianism. Policemen and soldiers still beat up and traumatize civilians in public. Most of our courts still feel an obligation to rule in favour of governments at the expense of the rights of people.

In general, then, formal democracy has come to Nigerians at such a high delivered cost that the welfare of the people has been constantly short changed. The hope that democracy would deliver a dividend of a better life has been frequently dashed. The result is a culture of distrust of government among the majority of citizens. Politicians have failed to instill trust just as democracy has failed to deliver on material dividends. People have merely learnt to wait in ambush for politicians at the next election.

Consequently, when election seasons come, the people have developed ways of reminding politicians of what democracy actually means to them.

The creative local parlance for it is something called ‘stomach infrastructure’. In the metaphor of ‘stomach infrastructure’, therefore, when politicians come calling for votes, ordinary people merely display their shriveled stomachs and emaciated frames, an indication that only those politicians who can address their immediate needs for food and cash merit their votes. In response, politicians have taken to distributing cash, bags of rice, cooking oil and loaves of bread at election time. Only those politicians who have surplus of these stand a chance of getting elected. Those, incidentally, are the real ‘infrastructure’ that the people believe in, not the far fetched promises of politicians for roads, bridges, schools and factories that never get built. In this existential and transactional definition of democracy, politicians who get toppled by soldiers can only expect street dances to welcome a new set of messiahs that have come to free the people from the burden of democracy.

For Nigeria, the return of a coup culture in West Africa is meaningless. We have tested and tasted both military dictatorship and democratic betrayal in almost equal measure and found both scandalously wanting. When undemocratic political change tempts Nigerians, we recall the long nights of military dictatorship and bloody warfare. When our military becomes too visible in public affairs, we remind ourselves of the ugly roads we have travelled before. We may not be in love with our bumbling and thieving politicians but we are more comfortable with them. They may be unreliable and incompetent. But at least we can curse and abuse them at will without being flogged, locked up or jailed for nothing. Somehow, we do manage to get rid of the worst of them at elections.

As Nigerians, our response to the resurgence of coups in West African politics should ultimately be a moral choice. Our choice is between different shades of democracy, not between democracy and dictatorship. Our historic burden is that of refining and redefining democracy to make it work better for us. The street dance in Conakry is bad for Africa.

Dr. Chidi Amuta, an intellectual and Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.


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INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

The Pentagon’s THAAD Deployment in Israel: A Signal to Iran and the Question of Global Double Standards

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By Baba Yunus Muhammad

The Pentagon’s decision to bolster Israel’s air defense systems with a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, supported by 100 U.S. troops to operate it, sends a powerful message. The THAAD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles, with Iran clearly in the crosshairs. This deployment is an escalation, illustrating the United States’ unwavering support for Israel in its regional confrontations, particularly with Iran. But it also raises significant questions: Who stands with Iran in this looming confrontation? And does America’s uncritical backing of Israel expose its double standards on human rights and international law?

America’s Stance: Double Standards and Duplicity

The United States’ support for Israel has long been criticized as riddled with hypocrisy. While Washington postures itself as a global advocate for democracy and human rights, it continues to supply the arms that fuel Israel’s military machine, which has been implicated in the deaths of thousands of innocent Palestinian women, children, the elderly, and the infirm. The moral outrage America projects against other regimes, particularly in the Muslim world, is conspicuously absent when it comes to Israel’s transgressions. This duplicity reflects a clear bias that undermines America’s credibility as a global arbiter of justice.

One of the most troubling aspects of U.S. foreign policy is the selective application of international law. Israel, despite numerous violations of human rights, continues to receive billions in military aid annually. Meanwhile, countries like Iran are sanctioned, demonized, and isolated for far less egregious offenses. Is this about justice, or does Israel’s strategic importance in the Middle East render its violations invisible to Western eyes?

The Forgotten Two-State Solution

As the world watches the current crisis, one fundamental issue has been almost entirely ignored: the two-state solution. Once at the center of every peace process, the notion of a Palestinian state coexisting alongside Israel has been sidelined. Instead, the narrative is now dominated by military escalations, airstrikes, and defense systems. The right of Palestinians to self-determination, to a land they can call their own, is no longer part of the discourse.

Israel, with the tacit approval of its Western backers, continues to pursue its “Greater Israel” agenda. Settlements expand, Palestinian homes are demolished, and Jerusalem is increasingly Judaized, all in direct contravention of international law. The West’s silence on this is deafening. Why has the right of the Palestinians to a country of their own been so easily brushed aside in the name of ‘security’?

Iran: A Nation Standing Alone?

In this complex geopolitical landscape, Iran is portrayed as the villain. Yet, it is important to ask: does Iran truly stand alone? While it lacks a superpower willing to defend it from Israeli aggression, Iran is not without allies, both politically and ideologically. More importantly, as an Islamic republic, Iran’s identity is rooted in its faith, particularly in tawheed (the belief in the oneness of Allah) and its reliance on divine justice. Iran may not have the might of THAAD systems, but it has the conviction that Allah’s help is greater than any worldly power.

The strength of the Islamic faith is not found in military arsenals, but in the belief that the oppressed will eventually triumph over the oppressors. As history shows, superpowers come and go, but the power of the oppressed, united in their faith and resolve, can overcome even the most insurmountable odds. Iran, in its resistance against Israeli aggression and Western duplicity, is likely to turn to Allah for protection and justice, embodying the Qur’anic verse:

“And if you remain patient and conscious of Allah, their plot will not harm you at all. Surely Allah is fully aware of what they do.”** (Qur’an, 3:120)

This verse speaks to the resilience of those who trust in Allah against overwhelming odds. It is a reminder that no matter how powerful the aggressor, the ultimate victory lies with those who maintain their faith and stand firm in the face of oppression.

Other Critical Issues

There are additional issues worth considering. The first is the long-term impact of America’s military involvement in the region. By sending troops to operate the THAAD system, the U.S. is not just providing arms—it is becoming an active participant in the defense of Israel, making it complicit in whatever actions Israel takes. This blurs the line between defense and aggression, and America must ask itself whether it is willing to shoulder the moral responsibility for Israeli actions.

Secondly, the deployment of advanced defense systems like THAAD only exacerbates the arms race in the Middle East. As Israel strengthens its defenses, neighboring countries will feel compelled to enhance their own military capabilities, increasing the likelihood of conflict rather than reducing it.

Finally, the question of international accountability must be addressed. If Israel, with its advanced military capabilities and the backing of the world’s most powerful nation, continues to flout international law without consequence, what message does this send to other countries? Does might make right? And where does this leave global efforts to maintain peace and justice?

Conclusion

 The Pentagon’s THAAD deployment in Israel is a reminder of the dangerous escalations that are taking place in the Middle East, with Iran as the primary target. Yet, the broader context reveals a troubling picture of global double standards, where Israel is given a free hand to violate human rights while the rights of Palestinians are ignored. As Iran prepares to defend itself, it does so with the faith that no system, no army, no alliance is greater than the power of Allah. The verse from the Qur’an serves as a powerful reminder of where true strength lies: not in missiles, but in faith, patience, and the belief in divine justice.


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INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

Escalating Conflict in the Middle East: Iran’s Retaliatory Strike against Israel and the Growing Regional Tensions

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to devastate countless lives, particularly in Gaza, Israel, and Lebanon. Recent escalations, including Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Israel, highlight a dangerous shift in the region’s dynamics. In this article Baba Yunus Muhammad delves into the circumstances surrounding Iran’s aggressive response, the motivations behind it, and the broader implications for regional stability. It also questions the role of global powers, particularly the United States, in perpetuating the conflict, while reflecting on the absence of a unified military alliance among Muslim nations to defend against Israeli aggression. 

The recent intensification of conflict between Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon has further deepened the tragic cycle of violence in the Middle East. The situation, marked by Israel’s military actions and retaliatory strikes from its adversaries, particularly Iran, is emblematic of decades of geopolitical tension, occupation, and armed confrontations.

Context of the Iranian Attack on Israel

Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 2nd marked a sharp escalation in the broader conflict. This retaliatory strike was a direct response to Israel’s aggressive targeting of key Hezbollah and Hamas commanders. The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s invasion of Lebanon pushed Tehran to act, signifying a growing frustration within Iran over perceived inaction. Iranian officials made it clear that the attack was not only defensive but also justified as a response to the increasing Israeli strikes across the region. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued the order, and the attack was supported by both the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the Iranian defense ministry.

While Iran’s previous strike in April was seen as more symbolic, this latest assault was far more aggressive. It hit multiple urban centers, and Tehran claimed that 90% of its missiles reached their intended targets. Though the full extent of the damage is still unclear, this represents a significant shift in Iran’s strategy, moving from symbolic gestures to serious military reprisals.

Why Did Iran Retaliate?

Several reasons motivated Iran’s retaliation. First, the assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders by Israeli forces played a crucial role. Iran had already held off from responding to earlier provocations, particularly the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in July. Iranian officials believed this restraint, done in hopes of securing a ceasefire deal in Gaza, was a strategic mistake. Instead of quelling Israeli aggression, it rather emboldened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to continue with escalations. Israeli strikes in Lebanon, coupled with the rhetoric from Netanyahu that recent actions aimed to “change the balance of power in the region,” convinced Iran’s leadership that not responding would further weaken their regional influence.

The Iranian response also reflects a growing divide within its leadership. Hardliners in Tehran, who felt that the country’s reputation as the leader of the “axis of resistance” was being undermined, viewed the lack of previous retaliation as a sign of weakness. This pressure led to the aggressive missile strike in October, highlighting that the country was ready for war if necessary. This response from Iran signals a turning point, where the threat of broader war no longer serves as a deterrent for Iran’s leadership.

US-Israel Relations and Broader Implications

The United States remains Israel’s staunchest ally, with its defense of Israeli actions viewed by many Muslim nations as part of a larger pattern of Western double standards. During Iran’s missile strike, US forces stepped in, intercepting some of the missiles, and US President Joe Biden dismissed the attack as “ineffective.” The unyielding support for Israel, however, continues to fuel resentment in the Muslim world, where many see this dynamic as part of an ongoing effort to suppress Muslim populations and movements.

The broader geopolitical context of this conflict cannot be ignored. While NATO is often lauded as a successful military alliance in the West, it is seen in many Muslim nations as a destabilizing force, responsible for chaos in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. Iran’s frustration with NATO’s continued support of Israel, and its pivotal role in defending Israeli interests, underpins much of the animosity. Tehran views the Western military alliance as fundamentally biased, contributing to the marginalization and suffering of Muslim-majority countries.

The Role of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

As the conflict escalates, a question often asked is: why doesn’t the Muslim world form a unified military response to counter Israeli aggression? The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the world’s second-largest intergovernmental body after the United Nations, has been relatively passive when it comes to creating an effective military coalition. Muslim countries, with their vast resources and manpower, could potentially form a powerful defense alliance, yet political fragmentation and differences in national interests have prevented such a coalition from materializing.

Historically, regional divisions, ideological differences, and varying levels of cooperation with Western powers have stifled the creation of a unified Muslim military front. The creation of a robust defense mechanism under the OIC remains elusive, as individual member states often prioritize their national interests over collective action. Nevertheless, the absence of such a coalition leaves Muslim populations across the region vulnerable to foreign aggression and continued conflict, with Israel benefiting from its military superiority and diplomatic support from the West.

If peace is ever to be realized in this volatile region, there must be a reevaluation of the global power dynamics, especially the role of the US and its unwavering support for Israel. At the same time, Muslim countries will need to overcome their internal divisions to form a unified front capable of protecting their interests against external aggressions. Until then, the cycle of violence is likely to continue, with devastating consequences for the people of Gaza, Lebanon, and Israel.

Baba Yunus Muhammad is the President of the Africa Islamic Economic Forum, Tamale, Ghana


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The US Election and its Impact on the Middle East

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As the U.S. presidential election draws near, the United States faces several economic, social and political challenges that will play a decisive role in determining whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Inflation remains high, the gap between the haves and the have-nots is growing, and views on immigration and the border continue to polarize the public. But the election’s outcome will also have implications beyond U.S. domestic policy.

The overriding foreign policy matter at issue in this election concerns economic competition with China and the associated tensions in the South China Sea, through which one-third of global trade passes. Other foreign policy priorities include the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict and its regional repercussions. Though the divide between the Republicans and the Democrats on the Ukraine war might be irreconcilable, their differences on the Middle East, including the war in Gaza, are mostly minor. Apart from safeguarding the vital interests of the U.S., both presidential contenders will eschew deep involvement in Middle East affairs.

Determinants of U.S. Policy

Five constants drive the direction of U.S. policy toward the Middle East. The first is Israel’s security and the U.S. commitment to maintaining Israel’s military superiority in the region, which is apparent from the state-of-the-art military hardware that Israel receives from the U.S. compared to the less advanced equipment delivered to other countries. The second constant relates to U.S. control of the region’s oil and ensuring its passage through the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb in order to reach international markets. U.S. commitment to this cause undermines any Iranian threats to block navigation through the Persian Gulf and Houthi threats to block access to the Red Sea. The third constant is the U.S. commitment to preventing Russia or China from dominating the region’s politics, a fact understood well by Middle Eastern countries. The fourth constant is ensuring the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. And the fifth focuses on combating terrorism.

The U.S. understands that given the complexity of Middle East politics, it cannot transform the region. It learned this lesson from the failures of its 2003 invasion of Iraq despite its heavy investment in democratization and reconstruction efforts. Its limited interest in the Middle East has driven its increasing desire to restrict its involvement there. This started when the U.S. intensified its pivot to Asia, an effort that began during Barack Obama’s presidency.

Moreover, U.S. voters (with the exception of Arab and Muslim Americans) are preoccupied with problems that have nothing to do with the Middle East. The enormous interest of activists and the media in the Gaza war does not reflect the priorities of voters themselves.

Straightforward Republican Approach

If Trump wins the presidency, he will pursue a foreign policy based on “America First” principles, including by signing trade deals, displaying a reluctance to engage in military interventions abroad and reducing international commitments, including to NATO.

In the Middle East, Trump has shown little interest in the crises in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, preferring to focus on domestic challenges instead. On the Israel-Palestinian conflict, he has shown little enthusiasm for a two-state solution and prefers to impose quick solutions without focusing on their feasibility.

Trump will likely seek direct normalization deals between Israel and its neighbors (especially Saudi Arabia), similar to those he concluded between the Israeli government and other Gulf states in 2020. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is eager to sign a peace treaty with Israel, even without an Israeli commitment to establishing a Palestinian state – though he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seem to have put the project on hold pending the outcome of the U.S. election, preferring to give credit to Trump rather than Harris for its success. Trump could also consider signing a formal defense treaty with Saudi Arabia to prod it to make peace with Israel, but this would be challenging considering that getting the support of two-thirds of the Senate seems unlikely. After making peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Trump will likely pressure Qatar, Kuwait and Oman to conclude similar deals.

As for relations with Iran, Trump will adopt a more hostile policy, but he is unlikely to resort to military action, relying instead on sanctions and economic pressure. He has hinted at the possibility of a deal with Tehran, but only on his terms. It’s unclear if the Iranians can afford another four years of austere sanctions under a second Trump term, so they could be amenable to striking a deal, facilitated by the recent election of a reformist Iranian president. Despite the apparent different approaches between the Republicans and the Democrats on Iran’s nuclear program and regional proxies, the core U.S. perspective on Iran cuts across the two political parties. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and although Biden pledged to restore it if he won the presidency, lengthy negotiations in Vienna did not yield results, and the Trump-era sanctions remain in effect.

Nuanced Democratic Approach

Most Republican congressional candidates who won their primary races support Israel unconditionally. In contrast, Democratic congressional candidates adopted a more nuanced approach. They invariably voiced their commitment to Israel’s security and well-being but with specific qualifications about human rights, the suffering of Gaza’s civilian population and a two-state solution. Still, Democratic candidates avoid extreme criticism of Israel based on the fact that results in the primary elections demonstrate that anti-Israel views are still unpopular among mainstream Democratic supporters. Protests at college campuses against Israel’s conduct in Gaza neither shape public opinion nor determine the Democratic Party’s policy choices.

The divide among Democrats on this issue results from profound differences in the views of the demographic groups that make up the party’s base, with younger, non-white voters being more sympathetic to the Palestinians and more critical of Israel, while older whites are more pro-Israel. Republican support for Israel, meanwhile, has increased with the surging influence of right-wing Christian groups within the party.

Since the inception of the Gaza war, Democratic members of Congress have been pressing to end the war and provide aid to Palestinians trapped in Gaza. However, Democrats’ criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu antedate the Gaza war. President Joe Biden and Democratic members of Congress opposed Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul and the appointment of two radical lawmakers to Cabinet.

Arguably sympathetic to the case presented by Palestinian rights activists, Harris has been unable to reconcile the demands of the pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli sides of the party. Pro-Palestinian activists felt that the Democratic Party failed to address their demands for primetime speaking slots during the 2024 Democratic National Convention, further exacerbating their feelings of marginalization.

If Harris wins the election, her foreign policy will adhere to the broad lines of the Democratic Party, such as defending democratic principles and human rights, strengthening international alliances, confronting global challenges such as climate change and nuclear proliferation, cooperating with allies, especially in NATO, and paying particular attention to confronting Russia in Ukraine and curtailing Chinese influence in the Pacific region.

As vice president, Harris avoided talking about strategic policies and initiatives in the Middle East. But if she wins the presidency, she will be forced to deal with the region’s intractable issues. It’s unlikely that U.S. support for Israel will witness a dramatic shift if Harris wins office. Still, in recent months, she has taken steps to distinguish herself slightly from Biden. She was the first senior U.S. official to call for a cease-fire in Gaza, opposing the idea that a deal can be reached only after Hamas is destroyed. She stressed Israel’s right to defend itself but chose to boycott Netanyahu’s speech before Congress in July.

Harris did not want the Gaza war to be one of the main issues in her election campaign. She chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who has limited foreign policy experience, as her running mate to sway uncommitted Democrats to vote for her. (Nearly 19 percent of voters in the Minnesota Democratic primary for president voted “uncommitted.”) Walz has recognized Israel’s right to defend itself and distinguished between Hamas, which he condemned for the Oct. 7 attack, and the civilians who have been caught in the crossfire in Gaza.

Ultimately, Harris’ position on ongoing tensions in the Middle East will be uncertain. During her tenure in the Senate, Harris consistently voted against arms deals with Saudi Arabia and U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. In 2020, she stated that the United States must reevaluate its relationship with the Saudis to defend U.S. values and interests, though she did not specify which values and interests she was referring to. Harris’ policies will likely mirror Biden’s. Her goals will include strengthening security relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia and cooperating in technology and the green energy transition. In the context of the ongoing escalation between Iran and Israel following the assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Harris is likely to adopt a balanced approach toward Iran and stress the need to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, pending the outcome of the fighting between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah.

Limits of U.S. Foreign Policy

Many in the Middle East understand the limits of U.S. policy in their region. They support U.S. engagement when it comes to combating terrorism and keeping sea lanes open for trade. They also accept, though grudgingly, the unpopular constants of U.S. policy, especially Israeli exceptionalism and regional supremacy.

They also recognize the United States’ reluctance to engage militarily in the region on matters that do not directly intersect with its own interests. In 2012, Syrian President Bashar Assad admitted to having chemical weapons but said they were meant for use only against foreign aggression. Obama warned him against using them against his people, saying he would be crossing a red line. But before the year’s end, Assad’s forces used sarin gas in rebel-held areas near Damascus, killing 1,400 people. The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations supported punishing Assad’s army for committing the massacre, but failing to secure authorization from either chamber, Obama opted against using force against the Syrian regime.

In September 2019, the Houthis targeted Saudi oil installations. They expected the Trump administration to defend the kingdom, but it did not. The Saudis viewed the Houthi attacks as a threat to international oil supplies, a view that Washington did not share because the incident had little impact on U.S. oil imports. That such attacks disrupted the flow of Saudi oil to Europe, China and India did not bother Washington.

The United Arab Emirates says it does not expect to resume talks with the U.S. over a multibillion-dollar deal to buy F-35 fighter jets regardless of who wins the election. Trump had signed an agreement to supply the UAE with the advanced aircraft, which no other country in the Middle East has besides Israel, before the end of his presidency in early 2021. The Emiratis now say the same factors that caused the suspension of the talks when Biden took office still exist, so they do not plan to reopen negotiations.

Apart from achieving vital national interests, the Middle East is of little interest to the United States and U.S. policymakers. The region accounts for less than 5 percent of the world’s economy, much of which comes from hydrocarbon exports. This lack of interest gives the region’s authoritarian leaders impunity to violate human rights and oppress their people.

Hilal Khashan, a Professor of political science at the American University of Beirut and a respected author and analyst of Middle Eastern affairs, is a contributing analyst at Geopolitical Futures, and author of six books, including Hizbullah: A Mission to Nowhere. (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2019.) He is currently writing a book titled Saudi Arabia: The Dilemma of Political Reform and the Illusion of Economic Development.is a contributing analyst at Geopolitical Futures. 

This article was first published in the Geopolitical Futures


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