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Nigeria: The Supreme Court on Trial

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By Chidi Amuta

The Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal has since reaffirmed the declaration of Mr. Bola Tinubu as our duly elected president. In response, the two major contenders Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar of the Labour Party and Peoples Democratic Party respectively have scaled up their legal objections to the Supreme Court. It is more like a slovenly walk up the ladder of judicial correctness, not a legal battle to assert a right or claim an entitlement. The opposition politicians are probably more preoccupied with adherence to the rule of law and a commitment to order and due judicial process. That is a minimum requirement of responsible democratic conduct.

Without prejudice to the wisdom of the Supreme Court, the high possibility is that they are likely to affirm the ruling of the Tribunal, It will do so for a different set of reasons that run contrary to conventional street wisdom.  It will not be because the judges are under corrupt influence. It will not be because the judges are compromised or cowardly. On the contrary, it will be because the existing laws leave them no room for escape.

Understandably, the incumbent does not seem perturbed by the judicial rituals. He is digging in in terms of ruling Nigeria, making a litany of strategic appointments and flip flopping through a barrage of key policy decisions. The law gives him the head start of waging his legal defenses of his much contested mandate from the comfort place of power incumbency. The other contestants are merely throwing legal stones at the glass house of power from the external wilderness of forlon hope.

On its part, the public is less impressed by the legal drama. The finality of a Supreme Court verdict has since lost its celestial awe. Most Nigerians doubt that the Supreme Court will ever upturn Mr. Tinubu’s incumbency. Public doubt about a judicial outcome from the Supreme Court is embedded in the tradition of skepticism that has come to surround the reputation of the Supreme Court and the Nigerian judiciary in general in recent years.

Rightly or wrongly, ordinary Nigerians doubt the integrity of the Supreme Court let alone expect that it can possibly rule an incumbent out of office at any time in the near future. Common people believe the judges are corrupt, compromised and cowardly. In other words, there is an overwhelming public verdict that neither Peter Obi nor Atiku Abubakar will secure the reliefs they are seeking from the apex court. People have already concluded that the Supreme Court will merely reaffirm the verdict of the PEPT.

To buttress their skepticism and general distrust of the Supreme Court, people cite a string of such verdicts in recent times. Challenges to presidential election outcomes from 1979 to the present have returned verdicts in favour of the incumbent. No one believes this instance will be different. In a few state governorship cases that went up to the Supreme Court, the verdicts have followed the same pattern. It has either been an affirmation of the incumbent or a toppling of the existing order based on disguised  partisan pandering. Easily the most embarrassing instance cases is the Supreme Court judgment that chaperoned Mr. Hope Uzodinma into the Government House in Owerri while returning Mr. Emeka Ihedioha to the pool of unemployed privileged citizens.

The adverse estimation of the Supreme Court by the Nigerian public is not necessarily informed by any understanding of the fine points of legality that inform the court’s judgments. It is instead a value judgment by a perceptive and politically conscious pubic on cases that touch on the wider democratic implications of our elections. More often than not, assessments of the judgments of the Supreme Court are value judgments that are mere spillovers of Nigeria’s pervasive corruption rhetoric. A pervasively corrupt culture has bred perennial distrust about the conduct of public officers and functionaries. There is a conventional wisdom out on the streets that the quality of judgment available to those who approach our courts is a function of the quantum of money and other material inducement on offer by litigants.

In this regard, people point to the many cases in which under the Buhari presidency, a number of judges homes were seaarched and huge troves of cash found. Security agencies went after some judges and traced huge sums of money to their bank accounts  which could not be accounted for. In other words a trail of corruption follows our judges like their politician patrons who in any case are the financiers of the wealthy judges. In going after the corrupt judges, political leaders were merely seeking to retrieve part of their loot doled out to some judges.

Therefore, the general doubt as to whether the Supreme Court will deliver a contrary verdict from the Presidential Election Tribunal  has a constitutional and legislative basis. The Supreme Court and indeed all the courts in the post election court processes have been caged by the existing constitutional stipulations and applicable Electoral law on the matter of post election petitions.

Here is the Constitution: Section 285 (6) of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (as amended) states that “an election tribunal shall deliver its judgement in writing within 180 days from the date of the filing of the petition”. Meanwhile, the petitioners have 21 days after the date of the declaration of the result of elections to file. The law further provides that “an appeal from the decision of an election tribunal or Court of Appeal in an election matter shall be heard and disposed of within 60 days from the date of delivery of judgment of the tribunal or Court of Appeal”. This means that the declared winner would have spent no less than six months in office before the case is concluded.

Since judicial systems hardly rule in favour of potential anarchy, the time lag makes it difficult to upturn a presidential election in which the incumbent has already spent months in office. For as long as this aberration persists, there can hardly be judgments that run counter to the interests of the incumbent at the presidential level at least.

The present aberration plays in favour of the belief that order precedes law. You must have an orderly society that exists in stability before individuals can successfully pursue their legal rights. So in most cases involving the security of the sovereign at the apex level, most Supreme Courts are more likely to rule in favour of an incumbent already in power. The desirable ideal is therefore a situation in which electoral petitions are concluded before the swearing-in of winners as obtains in many African countries.

In Kenya, for instance, the time allowed between the date of declaration of presidential election result and the decision of the Supreme Court on a petition is only three weeks. Article 140 of the 2010  Kenya Constitution provides that the petition should be filed within seven days after the result is declared and “within fourteen days after the filing of a petition, the Supreme Court shall hear and determine the petition and its decision shall be final”.

Over and above technical constitutional and legalistic issues, there is a more fundamental aspect of the reliance on the courts to determine electoral outcomes. An aberration seems to have been accepted as the norm. In a democracy, the essence of periodic judicial interventions in election matters is to promote democratic culture especially the primacy of the rule of law. It is also designed to strengthen the confidence of the people in the process and instill accountability in the political leadership. Reducing our courts, including the Supreme Court, to vote counting stations with Judges now deciding the outcome of elections, allegations of election fixing, deal-making and corruption have become rife.

The increased prominence of and recourse to judicial outcomes in election matters is a dangerous omen for Nigeria’s democracy. Politicians now go into electoral contests  uncertain that the electoral body (INEC) will return a free and fair verdict. They therefore prepare to duel in court, believing that tribunals and courts will give them the fairness and justice denied by the electoral body, namely INEC.

It has therefore become axiomatic that INEC declared results will be defective and unfair. Even INEC itself has become content with the recourse to the courts to complete their job, hence the refrain of ‘Go to court”. INEC seems to have transferred confidence in its own technical capacity to the judgment of courts. A democracy in which the umpire or electoral body lacks confidence in its own integrity and technical efficiency and instead transfers the burden of its fairness and integrity to the judiciary has serious fundamental problems.

The virtual transfer of the burden of determining electoral outcomes to the judiciary, especially the Supreme Court, has encumbered it with a political responsibility and a moral burden. No one knows what code of conduct regulates the conduct of our Supreme Court judges these days. It remains uncertain whether our Supreme Court judges are barred from receiving material favours from individuals or corporations even where the givers have no case before the affected judge. This is made more problematic by the civil service fixed tenure if our Supreme Court judges. They are appointed and serve according to a pecking at the behest of the president. Their conduct is subject to a loose regulation by the National Judicial Council.

Whatever the latitudes in the present environment, the Judges of Nigerian’s Supreme Court and indeed the entire judiciary establishment now have a huge moral burden. They must first admit that there has been a major erosion of the ethical and professional standards in their fold. Nigerians continue to search in vain for judges of stiff moral and ethical standards who also embodied brilliant professional standards and intellect to earn the epithet “learned”. Nigeria once had Justices Danley Alexander, Kayode Esho, Chukwudifu Oputa, T.S. Elias, Ayo Irikefe, Karibi White etc. These were men of solid conviction, profound intellect and impeccable character and commitment to the highest ethical standards. In their days, Nigerians could swear by the judgments of the Supreme Court. Even the military stood in awe of the moral stature and intellectual sagacity of these men of law and letters. As Chinua Achebe lamented shortly before he passed on, “there was once a nation.”

Our situation contrasts with the United States. Supreme Court judges serve a life tenure. They either sit till they die or voluntarily opt to retire. Every vacancy on the US Supreme Court is filled by a nominee of the president subject to Senate confirmation. More often than not, presidents nominate judges to the Supreme Court based on a combination of professional track record in the field and ideological leaning. You are either a liberal judge or a conservative. This connotes  implicit partisanship  in broad terms as conservative judges tend to be Republicans and liberal judges are essentially Democrats in tendency. Racial diversity has recently been thrown in as a factor that influences presidential nominations to the Supreme Court. There is no civil service pecking order to observe. It is a meritocratic system.

Given the life tenure of US Supreme Court judges, their ethical code is more or less left to their individual moral judgments as well as the perception of the public. Generally, the system frowns at Supreme Court Judges hitching a free ride in a private jet owned by a party financier or Wall Street influencer. Even enjoying a courtesy vacation or renting property as a favour from individuals or corporations with known political or business clout in Washington poses serious ethical problems.

 Currently, the only black judge on the Supreme Court, Mr. Clarence Thomas, is under serious ethical scrutiny.  Mr. Harlan Crow, a friend of his and Republican party funder bought a house from justice Thomas and flew him on a private jet and also took him on a cruise. Similarly, Justice Samuel Alito took a ride in a private jet paid for by another Republican donor. Though there is no requirement under US law for these judges to report or disclose these private favours, there  has been a public backlash about their conduct. This is against the background of the code of ethics in the US pubic service which bars public servants from receiving gifts in excess of $20!

In contrast, Nigerian Supreme Court judges are known to routinely receive huge gifts from business and political ‘friends’. Some of them have influenced choice public appointments for their family members and wards. Others have reportedly received holiday flight tickets and luxury hotel bookings from political and business figures in return for undisclosed judicial favours. It was rumoured that a Chief Justice of the federation was retired prematurely for fiddling with official funds to the tune of billions of Naira.

Another was similarly investigated, briefly prosecuted and then compulsorily retired because officialdom found an incredible balance in his personal bank account. One judge who became Chief Justice of the federation was so much in the back pocket of a former Governor that the governor would travel and bring back for the judge several suitcases full of shoes of different colours. While the judge was entitled to have friends, the problem was that the governor in question had numerous requests for judicial intervention for which he demanded the help of the shoe -loving judge. In an ecosystem where the definition of corruption is rather elastic, it becomes even harder to exonerate our judges from charges of possible graft.

On these post election cases, there is a need to urgently rescue  the Supreme Court from imminent irrelevance and oblivion. The challenge is to unfetter the courts by reviewing the constitutional provisions and legislative enablement that relate to the timing and completion of post election petitions. Once we can free post election judicial processes from the burden of incumbency, then the judiciary will be free to dispense justice according to law and in pursuit of natural justice and fairness to all. Thus freed from the encumbrance and blackmail of incumbent power, all aggrieved contestants can approach the law in meekness as equal seekers for justice.

But the most important route to save the judiciary from being killed by politics is to focus attention on evolving a foolproof electoral system. When election outcomes determined by INEC become impeccably reliable, there will be little or need for recourse to judicial absolutism. The judges will regain their integrity and the Supreme Court will reclaim its faded glory.

Dr. Amuta, a Nigerian journalist, intellectual and literary critic, was previously a senior lecturer in literature and communications at the universities of Ife and Port Harcourt.


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The Pentagon’s THAAD Deployment in Israel: A Signal to Iran and the Question of Global Double Standards

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By Baba Yunus Muhammad

The Pentagon’s decision to bolster Israel’s air defense systems with a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, supported by 100 U.S. troops to operate it, sends a powerful message. The THAAD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles, with Iran clearly in the crosshairs. This deployment is an escalation, illustrating the United States’ unwavering support for Israel in its regional confrontations, particularly with Iran. But it also raises significant questions: Who stands with Iran in this looming confrontation? And does America’s uncritical backing of Israel expose its double standards on human rights and international law?

America’s Stance: Double Standards and Duplicity

The United States’ support for Israel has long been criticized as riddled with hypocrisy. While Washington postures itself as a global advocate for democracy and human rights, it continues to supply the arms that fuel Israel’s military machine, which has been implicated in the deaths of thousands of innocent Palestinian women, children, the elderly, and the infirm. The moral outrage America projects against other regimes, particularly in the Muslim world, is conspicuously absent when it comes to Israel’s transgressions. This duplicity reflects a clear bias that undermines America’s credibility as a global arbiter of justice.

One of the most troubling aspects of U.S. foreign policy is the selective application of international law. Israel, despite numerous violations of human rights, continues to receive billions in military aid annually. Meanwhile, countries like Iran are sanctioned, demonized, and isolated for far less egregious offenses. Is this about justice, or does Israel’s strategic importance in the Middle East render its violations invisible to Western eyes?

The Forgotten Two-State Solution

As the world watches the current crisis, one fundamental issue has been almost entirely ignored: the two-state solution. Once at the center of every peace process, the notion of a Palestinian state coexisting alongside Israel has been sidelined. Instead, the narrative is now dominated by military escalations, airstrikes, and defense systems. The right of Palestinians to self-determination, to a land they can call their own, is no longer part of the discourse.

Israel, with the tacit approval of its Western backers, continues to pursue its “Greater Israel” agenda. Settlements expand, Palestinian homes are demolished, and Jerusalem is increasingly Judaized, all in direct contravention of international law. The West’s silence on this is deafening. Why has the right of the Palestinians to a country of their own been so easily brushed aside in the name of ‘security’?

Iran: A Nation Standing Alone?

In this complex geopolitical landscape, Iran is portrayed as the villain. Yet, it is important to ask: does Iran truly stand alone? While it lacks a superpower willing to defend it from Israeli aggression, Iran is not without allies, both politically and ideologically. More importantly, as an Islamic republic, Iran’s identity is rooted in its faith, particularly in tawheed (the belief in the oneness of Allah) and its reliance on divine justice. Iran may not have the might of THAAD systems, but it has the conviction that Allah’s help is greater than any worldly power.

The strength of the Islamic faith is not found in military arsenals, but in the belief that the oppressed will eventually triumph over the oppressors. As history shows, superpowers come and go, but the power of the oppressed, united in their faith and resolve, can overcome even the most insurmountable odds. Iran, in its resistance against Israeli aggression and Western duplicity, is likely to turn to Allah for protection and justice, embodying the Qur’anic verse:

“And if you remain patient and conscious of Allah, their plot will not harm you at all. Surely Allah is fully aware of what they do.”** (Qur’an, 3:120)

This verse speaks to the resilience of those who trust in Allah against overwhelming odds. It is a reminder that no matter how powerful the aggressor, the ultimate victory lies with those who maintain their faith and stand firm in the face of oppression.

Other Critical Issues

There are additional issues worth considering. The first is the long-term impact of America’s military involvement in the region. By sending troops to operate the THAAD system, the U.S. is not just providing arms—it is becoming an active participant in the defense of Israel, making it complicit in whatever actions Israel takes. This blurs the line between defense and aggression, and America must ask itself whether it is willing to shoulder the moral responsibility for Israeli actions.

Secondly, the deployment of advanced defense systems like THAAD only exacerbates the arms race in the Middle East. As Israel strengthens its defenses, neighboring countries will feel compelled to enhance their own military capabilities, increasing the likelihood of conflict rather than reducing it.

Finally, the question of international accountability must be addressed. If Israel, with its advanced military capabilities and the backing of the world’s most powerful nation, continues to flout international law without consequence, what message does this send to other countries? Does might make right? And where does this leave global efforts to maintain peace and justice?

Conclusion

 The Pentagon’s THAAD deployment in Israel is a reminder of the dangerous escalations that are taking place in the Middle East, with Iran as the primary target. Yet, the broader context reveals a troubling picture of global double standards, where Israel is given a free hand to violate human rights while the rights of Palestinians are ignored. As Iran prepares to defend itself, it does so with the faith that no system, no army, no alliance is greater than the power of Allah. The verse from the Qur’an serves as a powerful reminder of where true strength lies: not in missiles, but in faith, patience, and the belief in divine justice.


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Escalating Conflict in the Middle East: Iran’s Retaliatory Strike against Israel and the Growing Regional Tensions

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to devastate countless lives, particularly in Gaza, Israel, and Lebanon. Recent escalations, including Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Israel, highlight a dangerous shift in the region’s dynamics. In this article Baba Yunus Muhammad delves into the circumstances surrounding Iran’s aggressive response, the motivations behind it, and the broader implications for regional stability. It also questions the role of global powers, particularly the United States, in perpetuating the conflict, while reflecting on the absence of a unified military alliance among Muslim nations to defend against Israeli aggression. 

The recent intensification of conflict between Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon has further deepened the tragic cycle of violence in the Middle East. The situation, marked by Israel’s military actions and retaliatory strikes from its adversaries, particularly Iran, is emblematic of decades of geopolitical tension, occupation, and armed confrontations.

Context of the Iranian Attack on Israel

Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 2nd marked a sharp escalation in the broader conflict. This retaliatory strike was a direct response to Israel’s aggressive targeting of key Hezbollah and Hamas commanders. The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s invasion of Lebanon pushed Tehran to act, signifying a growing frustration within Iran over perceived inaction. Iranian officials made it clear that the attack was not only defensive but also justified as a response to the increasing Israeli strikes across the region. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued the order, and the attack was supported by both the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the Iranian defense ministry.

While Iran’s previous strike in April was seen as more symbolic, this latest assault was far more aggressive. It hit multiple urban centers, and Tehran claimed that 90% of its missiles reached their intended targets. Though the full extent of the damage is still unclear, this represents a significant shift in Iran’s strategy, moving from symbolic gestures to serious military reprisals.

Why Did Iran Retaliate?

Several reasons motivated Iran’s retaliation. First, the assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders by Israeli forces played a crucial role. Iran had already held off from responding to earlier provocations, particularly the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in July. Iranian officials believed this restraint, done in hopes of securing a ceasefire deal in Gaza, was a strategic mistake. Instead of quelling Israeli aggression, it rather emboldened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to continue with escalations. Israeli strikes in Lebanon, coupled with the rhetoric from Netanyahu that recent actions aimed to “change the balance of power in the region,” convinced Iran’s leadership that not responding would further weaken their regional influence.

The Iranian response also reflects a growing divide within its leadership. Hardliners in Tehran, who felt that the country’s reputation as the leader of the “axis of resistance” was being undermined, viewed the lack of previous retaliation as a sign of weakness. This pressure led to the aggressive missile strike in October, highlighting that the country was ready for war if necessary. This response from Iran signals a turning point, where the threat of broader war no longer serves as a deterrent for Iran’s leadership.

US-Israel Relations and Broader Implications

The United States remains Israel’s staunchest ally, with its defense of Israeli actions viewed by many Muslim nations as part of a larger pattern of Western double standards. During Iran’s missile strike, US forces stepped in, intercepting some of the missiles, and US President Joe Biden dismissed the attack as “ineffective.” The unyielding support for Israel, however, continues to fuel resentment in the Muslim world, where many see this dynamic as part of an ongoing effort to suppress Muslim populations and movements.

The broader geopolitical context of this conflict cannot be ignored. While NATO is often lauded as a successful military alliance in the West, it is seen in many Muslim nations as a destabilizing force, responsible for chaos in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. Iran’s frustration with NATO’s continued support of Israel, and its pivotal role in defending Israeli interests, underpins much of the animosity. Tehran views the Western military alliance as fundamentally biased, contributing to the marginalization and suffering of Muslim-majority countries.

The Role of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

As the conflict escalates, a question often asked is: why doesn’t the Muslim world form a unified military response to counter Israeli aggression? The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the world’s second-largest intergovernmental body after the United Nations, has been relatively passive when it comes to creating an effective military coalition. Muslim countries, with their vast resources and manpower, could potentially form a powerful defense alliance, yet political fragmentation and differences in national interests have prevented such a coalition from materializing.

Historically, regional divisions, ideological differences, and varying levels of cooperation with Western powers have stifled the creation of a unified Muslim military front. The creation of a robust defense mechanism under the OIC remains elusive, as individual member states often prioritize their national interests over collective action. Nevertheless, the absence of such a coalition leaves Muslim populations across the region vulnerable to foreign aggression and continued conflict, with Israel benefiting from its military superiority and diplomatic support from the West.

If peace is ever to be realized in this volatile region, there must be a reevaluation of the global power dynamics, especially the role of the US and its unwavering support for Israel. At the same time, Muslim countries will need to overcome their internal divisions to form a unified front capable of protecting their interests against external aggressions. Until then, the cycle of violence is likely to continue, with devastating consequences for the people of Gaza, Lebanon, and Israel.

Baba Yunus Muhammad is the President of the Africa Islamic Economic Forum, Tamale, Ghana


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The US Election and its Impact on the Middle East

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As the U.S. presidential election draws near, the United States faces several economic, social and political challenges that will play a decisive role in determining whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Inflation remains high, the gap between the haves and the have-nots is growing, and views on immigration and the border continue to polarize the public. But the election’s outcome will also have implications beyond U.S. domestic policy.

The overriding foreign policy matter at issue in this election concerns economic competition with China and the associated tensions in the South China Sea, through which one-third of global trade passes. Other foreign policy priorities include the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict and its regional repercussions. Though the divide between the Republicans and the Democrats on the Ukraine war might be irreconcilable, their differences on the Middle East, including the war in Gaza, are mostly minor. Apart from safeguarding the vital interests of the U.S., both presidential contenders will eschew deep involvement in Middle East affairs.

Determinants of U.S. Policy

Five constants drive the direction of U.S. policy toward the Middle East. The first is Israel’s security and the U.S. commitment to maintaining Israel’s military superiority in the region, which is apparent from the state-of-the-art military hardware that Israel receives from the U.S. compared to the less advanced equipment delivered to other countries. The second constant relates to U.S. control of the region’s oil and ensuring its passage through the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb in order to reach international markets. U.S. commitment to this cause undermines any Iranian threats to block navigation through the Persian Gulf and Houthi threats to block access to the Red Sea. The third constant is the U.S. commitment to preventing Russia or China from dominating the region’s politics, a fact understood well by Middle Eastern countries. The fourth constant is ensuring the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. And the fifth focuses on combating terrorism.

The U.S. understands that given the complexity of Middle East politics, it cannot transform the region. It learned this lesson from the failures of its 2003 invasion of Iraq despite its heavy investment in democratization and reconstruction efforts. Its limited interest in the Middle East has driven its increasing desire to restrict its involvement there. This started when the U.S. intensified its pivot to Asia, an effort that began during Barack Obama’s presidency.

Moreover, U.S. voters (with the exception of Arab and Muslim Americans) are preoccupied with problems that have nothing to do with the Middle East. The enormous interest of activists and the media in the Gaza war does not reflect the priorities of voters themselves.

Straightforward Republican Approach

If Trump wins the presidency, he will pursue a foreign policy based on “America First” principles, including by signing trade deals, displaying a reluctance to engage in military interventions abroad and reducing international commitments, including to NATO.

In the Middle East, Trump has shown little interest in the crises in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, preferring to focus on domestic challenges instead. On the Israel-Palestinian conflict, he has shown little enthusiasm for a two-state solution and prefers to impose quick solutions without focusing on their feasibility.

Trump will likely seek direct normalization deals between Israel and its neighbors (especially Saudi Arabia), similar to those he concluded between the Israeli government and other Gulf states in 2020. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is eager to sign a peace treaty with Israel, even without an Israeli commitment to establishing a Palestinian state – though he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seem to have put the project on hold pending the outcome of the U.S. election, preferring to give credit to Trump rather than Harris for its success. Trump could also consider signing a formal defense treaty with Saudi Arabia to prod it to make peace with Israel, but this would be challenging considering that getting the support of two-thirds of the Senate seems unlikely. After making peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Trump will likely pressure Qatar, Kuwait and Oman to conclude similar deals.

As for relations with Iran, Trump will adopt a more hostile policy, but he is unlikely to resort to military action, relying instead on sanctions and economic pressure. He has hinted at the possibility of a deal with Tehran, but only on his terms. It’s unclear if the Iranians can afford another four years of austere sanctions under a second Trump term, so they could be amenable to striking a deal, facilitated by the recent election of a reformist Iranian president. Despite the apparent different approaches between the Republicans and the Democrats on Iran’s nuclear program and regional proxies, the core U.S. perspective on Iran cuts across the two political parties. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and although Biden pledged to restore it if he won the presidency, lengthy negotiations in Vienna did not yield results, and the Trump-era sanctions remain in effect.

Nuanced Democratic Approach

Most Republican congressional candidates who won their primary races support Israel unconditionally. In contrast, Democratic congressional candidates adopted a more nuanced approach. They invariably voiced their commitment to Israel’s security and well-being but with specific qualifications about human rights, the suffering of Gaza’s civilian population and a two-state solution. Still, Democratic candidates avoid extreme criticism of Israel based on the fact that results in the primary elections demonstrate that anti-Israel views are still unpopular among mainstream Democratic supporters. Protests at college campuses against Israel’s conduct in Gaza neither shape public opinion nor determine the Democratic Party’s policy choices.

The divide among Democrats on this issue results from profound differences in the views of the demographic groups that make up the party’s base, with younger, non-white voters being more sympathetic to the Palestinians and more critical of Israel, while older whites are more pro-Israel. Republican support for Israel, meanwhile, has increased with the surging influence of right-wing Christian groups within the party.

Since the inception of the Gaza war, Democratic members of Congress have been pressing to end the war and provide aid to Palestinians trapped in Gaza. However, Democrats’ criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu antedate the Gaza war. President Joe Biden and Democratic members of Congress opposed Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul and the appointment of two radical lawmakers to Cabinet.

Arguably sympathetic to the case presented by Palestinian rights activists, Harris has been unable to reconcile the demands of the pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli sides of the party. Pro-Palestinian activists felt that the Democratic Party failed to address their demands for primetime speaking slots during the 2024 Democratic National Convention, further exacerbating their feelings of marginalization.

If Harris wins the election, her foreign policy will adhere to the broad lines of the Democratic Party, such as defending democratic principles and human rights, strengthening international alliances, confronting global challenges such as climate change and nuclear proliferation, cooperating with allies, especially in NATO, and paying particular attention to confronting Russia in Ukraine and curtailing Chinese influence in the Pacific region.

As vice president, Harris avoided talking about strategic policies and initiatives in the Middle East. But if she wins the presidency, she will be forced to deal with the region’s intractable issues. It’s unlikely that U.S. support for Israel will witness a dramatic shift if Harris wins office. Still, in recent months, she has taken steps to distinguish herself slightly from Biden. She was the first senior U.S. official to call for a cease-fire in Gaza, opposing the idea that a deal can be reached only after Hamas is destroyed. She stressed Israel’s right to defend itself but chose to boycott Netanyahu’s speech before Congress in July.

Harris did not want the Gaza war to be one of the main issues in her election campaign. She chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who has limited foreign policy experience, as her running mate to sway uncommitted Democrats to vote for her. (Nearly 19 percent of voters in the Minnesota Democratic primary for president voted “uncommitted.”) Walz has recognized Israel’s right to defend itself and distinguished between Hamas, which he condemned for the Oct. 7 attack, and the civilians who have been caught in the crossfire in Gaza.

Ultimately, Harris’ position on ongoing tensions in the Middle East will be uncertain. During her tenure in the Senate, Harris consistently voted against arms deals with Saudi Arabia and U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. In 2020, she stated that the United States must reevaluate its relationship with the Saudis to defend U.S. values and interests, though she did not specify which values and interests she was referring to. Harris’ policies will likely mirror Biden’s. Her goals will include strengthening security relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia and cooperating in technology and the green energy transition. In the context of the ongoing escalation between Iran and Israel following the assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Harris is likely to adopt a balanced approach toward Iran and stress the need to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, pending the outcome of the fighting between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah.

Limits of U.S. Foreign Policy

Many in the Middle East understand the limits of U.S. policy in their region. They support U.S. engagement when it comes to combating terrorism and keeping sea lanes open for trade. They also accept, though grudgingly, the unpopular constants of U.S. policy, especially Israeli exceptionalism and regional supremacy.

They also recognize the United States’ reluctance to engage militarily in the region on matters that do not directly intersect with its own interests. In 2012, Syrian President Bashar Assad admitted to having chemical weapons but said they were meant for use only against foreign aggression. Obama warned him against using them against his people, saying he would be crossing a red line. But before the year’s end, Assad’s forces used sarin gas in rebel-held areas near Damascus, killing 1,400 people. The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations supported punishing Assad’s army for committing the massacre, but failing to secure authorization from either chamber, Obama opted against using force against the Syrian regime.

In September 2019, the Houthis targeted Saudi oil installations. They expected the Trump administration to defend the kingdom, but it did not. The Saudis viewed the Houthi attacks as a threat to international oil supplies, a view that Washington did not share because the incident had little impact on U.S. oil imports. That such attacks disrupted the flow of Saudi oil to Europe, China and India did not bother Washington.

The United Arab Emirates says it does not expect to resume talks with the U.S. over a multibillion-dollar deal to buy F-35 fighter jets regardless of who wins the election. Trump had signed an agreement to supply the UAE with the advanced aircraft, which no other country in the Middle East has besides Israel, before the end of his presidency in early 2021. The Emiratis now say the same factors that caused the suspension of the talks when Biden took office still exist, so they do not plan to reopen negotiations.

Apart from achieving vital national interests, the Middle East is of little interest to the United States and U.S. policymakers. The region accounts for less than 5 percent of the world’s economy, much of which comes from hydrocarbon exports. This lack of interest gives the region’s authoritarian leaders impunity to violate human rights and oppress their people.

Hilal Khashan, a Professor of political science at the American University of Beirut and a respected author and analyst of Middle Eastern affairs, is a contributing analyst at Geopolitical Futures, and author of six books, including Hizbullah: A Mission to Nowhere. (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2019.) He is currently writing a book titled Saudi Arabia: The Dilemma of Political Reform and the Illusion of Economic Development.is a contributing analyst at Geopolitical Futures. 

This article was first published in the Geopolitical Futures


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