BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Global War Against Climate Change

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4 years ago

October 12, 2021

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Disasters such as cyclones, floods, and droughts are more connected than we might think, and human activity is the common thread, a UN report released on Wednesday reveals.

The study from the UN University, the academic and research arm of the UN, looks at 10 different disasters that occurred in 2020 and 2021, and finds that, even though they occurred in very different locations and do not initially appear to have much in common, they are, in fact, interconnected.

A consequence of human influence

The study builds on the ground-breaking Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment released on 9 August, and based on improved data on historic heating, which showed that human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years. António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General described the IPCC assessment as a “code red for humanity”.

Over the 2020-2021 period covered by the UN University, several record-breaking disasters took place, including the COVID-19 pandemic, a cold wave which crippled the US state of Texas, wildfires which destroyed almost 5 million acres of Amazon rainforest, and 9 heavy storms in Viet Nam – in the span of only 7 weeks.

Arctic-Texas link

Whilst these disasters occurred thousands of miles apart, the study shows how they are related to one another, and can have consequences for people living in distant places.

An example of this is the recent heatwave in the Arctic and cold wave in Texas. In 2020, the Arctic experienced unusually high air temperatures, and the second-lowest amount of sea ice cover on record.

This warm air destabilized the polar vortex, a spinning mass of cold air above the North Pole, allowing colder air to move southward into North America, contributing to the sub-zero temperatures in Texas, during which the power grid froze up, and 210 people died.

COVID and the Cyclone

Another example of the connections between disasters included in the study and the pandemic, is Cyclone Amphan, which struck the border region of India and Bangladesh.

In an area where almost 50 per cent of the population is living under the poverty line, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns left many people without any way to make a living, including migrant workers who were forced to return to their home areas and were housed in cyclone shelters while under quarantine.

When the region was hit by Cyclone Amphan, many people, concerned over social distancing, hygiene and privacy, avoided the shelters and decided to weather the storm in unsecure locations. In the aftermath, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases, compounding the 100 fatalities directly caused by Amphan, which also caused damage in excess of 13 billion USD and displaced 4.9 million people.

Root causes

The new report identifies three root causes that affected most of the events in the analysis: human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, insufficient disaster risk management, and undervaluing environmental costs and benefits in decision-making.

The first of these, human induced greenhouse gas emissions, is identified as one of the reasons why Texas experienced freezing temperatures, but these emissions also contribute to the formation of super cyclones such as Cyclone Amphan, on the other side of the world.

Insufficient disaster risk management, notes the study, was one of the reasons why Texas experienced such high losses of life and excessive infrastructure damage during the cold snap, and also contributed to the high losses caused by the Central Viet Nam floods.

The report also shows how the record rate of deforestation in the Amazon is linked to the high global demand for meat: this demand has led to an increase in the need for soy, which is used as animal feed for poultry. As a result, tracts of forest are being cut down.

“What we can learn from this report is that disasters we see happening around the world are much more interconnected than we may realize, and they are also connected to individual behaviour”, says one of the report’s authors, UNU scientist Jack O’Connor. “Our actions have consequences, for all of us,”

Solutions also linked

However, Mr. O’Connor is adamant that, just as the problems are interlinked, so are the solutions.

The report shows that cutting harmful greenhouse gas emissions can positively affect the outcome of many different types of disasters, prevent a further increase in the frequency and severity of hazards, and protect biodiversity and ecosystems.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: A Global Economic Earthquake with Far-Reaching Implications

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3 days ago

April 15, 2025

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Baba Yunus Muhammad

Washington, D.C. – Long before his 2024 re-election campaign, Donald J. Trump had been an unrelenting advocate for protectionist trade policies. His views on tariffs, long cast as a pillar of his economic nationalism, have now crystallized into a sweeping policy agenda with the potential to reshape the global economic order. Last Wednesday, President Trump took to the White House lawn, brandishing an oversized chart, to announce the most aggressive tariff regime in modern U.S. history—a unilateral 10% blanket tariff on virtually all imported goods, complemented by so-called “reciprocal” tariffs targeting countries he accuses of exploiting the United States.

The move has not just rattled America’s trading partners, it has sent shockwaves through the entire global economy. Financial markets plunged, manufacturing sectors braced for retaliation, and policymakers around the world scrambled to assess the fallout. But what lies behind this bold—and, some argue, reckless—push for economic decoupling? And what does it mean for the Islamic world and emerging markets?

Economic Nationalism Reborn

Trump’s tariff blitz is the fullest expression yet of his “America First” economic philosophy—an ideological throwback to a 1950s-era America that dominated global manufacturing in the wake of World War II. According to economic historian Dr. Alan Scott, this nostalgia is at the heart of Trump’s thinking. “The U.S. was uniquely advantaged during that period—Europe and Japan were devastated, and America had a virtual monopoly on industrial output,” he says. “That era cannot be recreated.”

Nonetheless, Trump’s rhetoric is anchored in the belief that aggressive tariffs will resuscitate America’s industrial base, revitalize blue-collar employment, and address the inequalities wrought by decades of globalization. Whether those goals are achievable—or even realistic—is highly contested.

The Global Repercussions: Allies and Adversaries in the Crosshairs

The effects of the new tariffs are global in scope. China, the U.S.’s main strategic rival, faces an unprecedented 54% total levy on its exports to the United States. Beijing has already vowed retaliatory action. Traditional allies have not fared much better: the European Union is now subject to a 20% tariff; the United Kingdom, 10%; and Japan, despite pledging $1 trillion in U.S. investments, is hit with a 24% tariff.

Notably, Canada and Mexico have been spared—at least temporarily—though they too have been locked in past trade disputes with the Trump administration. For the Islamic world and Global South, the stakes are even higher. Several of the world’s poorest and most trade-dependent countries have been targeted with tariffs as high as 50%. These include Cambodia, Laos, Madagascar, Vietnam, Myanmar—and critically, Muslim-majority nations such as Pakistan and Indonesia are watching with deep concern, given their heavy reliance on U.S. markets for textiles, apparel, and electronics.

A Blow to the Global South

Among the most worrying elements of the policy is its potential impact on least-developed and low-income countries. Nations like Lesotho and Cambodia—already reeling from reduced U.S. development assistance—now face steep tariffs on their exports. For smaller Islamic economies trying to escape the middle-income trap or build industrial bases, this could be economically devastating.

“Tariffs of this magnitude will not just curb growth, they could collapse entire industries,” warns Dr. Aisha Rahman, an economist with the Islamic Development Bank. “Many of these countries have benefited from preferential trade terms. Now, they risk being crowded out of global markets just when they are beginning to integrate.”

There is also the risk that products originally intended for the U.S. market could be dumped in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia, creating new competitive pressures for local businesses.

Inflation, Uncertainty, and the U.S. Backlash

Domestically, the response has been fraught with anxiety. Wall Street has registered its displeasure with sharp declines: the Nasdaq dropped 6%, the S&P 500 fell 4.8%, and the Dow slid 3.9%. The U.S. dollar weakened, oil prices plummeted, and the bond market reflected growing fears of a recession.

Analysts warn of rising inflation and unemployment. A study by the Wall Street Journal projects that if the tariffs remain, inflation could spike to 4.4% by year-end, with unemployment hitting 5.5%. This economic strain would disproportionately impact low-income households—precisely those whom Trump claims to champion.

Even within Trump’s own party, unease is growing. While Vice President JD Vance dismissed the market reaction as overblown, some Republican lawmakers are beginning to break ranks, concerned that the long-term economic costs will outweigh any short-term political gains.

Can the Islamic World Respond Strategically?

For Muslim-majority countries—particularly those striving to expand manufacturing and export-led growth—Trump’s new trade regime presents both a challenge and an opportunity. On one hand, increased U.S. protectionism may shut the door on critical export markets. On the other, it could accelerate South-South trade partnerships, regional economic blocs, and Islamic finance-led industrial investment.

Dr. Omar El-Zein, trade advisor to the OIC, argues that “the Islamic world must now pursue intra-OIC trade more seriously than ever before. If the West turns inward, we must turn to one another.”

Indeed, in an era where multilateralism is being tested and global supply chains are being restructured, there is a chance to forge new trade alignments rooted in mutual benefit, Islamic economic values, and strategic autonomy.

Conclusion: Between Ideology and Impact

President Trump’s tariffs are not merely a set of economic instruments—they are a declaration of ideological war on the globalized economic consensus. While they may serve a symbolic political purpose in the U.S., their real-world impact will be felt far beyond its borders—in factories in Bangladesh, in textile mills in Egypt, and in rice fields in Indonesia.

The Islamic world, already grappling with structural development challenges, must now brace for a more hostile and unpredictable global trading environment. Whether it chooses to respond with disunity or collective resolve may well define its economic future.

Baba Yunus Muhammad is President, Africa Islamic Economic Forum, Ghana

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

How Africa’s Largest Economy Lost 50% of Its GDP

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1 week ago

April 11, 2025

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Hafiz M. Ahmed

In 2014, Nigeria stood atop Africa’s economic podium, its GDP recalibrated to $510 billion, a figure that cemented its status as the continent’s largest economy. Oil wealth, a burgeoning tech scene, and a population of 220 million fuelled ambitions of global ascendancy. Yet, a decade later, that triumph has unravelled: GDP has halved to $253 billion by 2024, a stark testament to structural frailties and external blows. Inflation has surged to 33.95%, poverty ensnares 46% of the populace, and youth unemployment festers at 40%. This is no mere statistical blip—it is a crisis demanding urgent reckoning. But Nigeria’s story need not end in decline. Beneath the rubble lies a nation poised for resurgence, armed with vast resources, a dynamic workforce, and nascent reforms. The path to recovery is arduous yet attainable. Here, we dissect the collapse and chart a credible blueprint for Nigeria to reclaim its mantle as Africa’s economic powerhouse.

The descent began with oil, the artery of Nigeria’s economy. From 2000 to 2014, annual GDP growth averaged 7%, peaking at $568 billion, propelled by crude prices that topped $115 per barrel. Oil constituted 90% of exports and 70% of government revenue, per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But the 2014 price crash to $50 per barrel exposed a fatal dependency. By 2023, production slumped to 1.28 million barrels per day (mbpd)—below the OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd—haemorrhaging $10 billion annually to theft, according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Foreign exchange reserves dwindled from $38 billion in 2019 to $33 billion in 2023, per the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as oil receipts faltered. This overreliance has left Nigeria vulnerable, yet it also signals an overdue pivot to diversification.

Structural deficiencies run deep. Agriculture, employing 45% of Nigerians, contributes just 25% to GDP, its productivity stymied—maize yields average 1.8 tons per hectare against a global norm of 5 tons, per the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Manufacturing, now 9% of GDP in 2023, down from 9.5% in 2015, is throttled by electricity shortages costing businesses $29 billion yearly, per the World Bank. Nigeria generates a paltry 4,000 megawatts for 220 million people, compared to South Africa’s 58,000 MW for 60 million. Import reliance—$2.13 billion spent on wheat, rice, and sugar in 2023, per the African Development Bank (AfDB)—drains reserves, a vulnerability magnified by a 40% wheat price surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These are not insurmountable flaws; they are clarion calls for reform.

Monetary policy missteps exacerbated the malaise. The CBN’s artificial naira peg at 305 to the dollar until 2023 depleted reserves and spawned a parallel market where rates hit 1,600 by 2024. Post-devaluation, the currency lost 70% of its value, per IMF estimates, driving inflation to 33.95% in May 2024—food inflation reached 40%, per the NBS. A 50kg bag of rice, a staple, soared from ₦25,000 in 2022 to ₦80,000 in 2024, punishing households where 46% live below $1.90 daily, per the World Bank. Public debt escalated to 46% of GDP in 2023, with 89% of budgeted deficits financed through borrowing, per PwC’s 2024 analysis. This fiscal strain is severe, but it is not irreparable—policy agility can stem the tide.

Corruption and insecurity have exacted a punishing toll. Oil theft, at 400,000 barrels daily in 2022, costs $10 billion annually, while Nigeria languishes at 145 out of 180 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Customs inefficiencies at Apapa Port siphon $4 billion yearly, per the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). In the northeast, Boko Haram’s insurgency has inflicted $100 billion in economic losses since 2009, per estimates, slashing agricultural output by 20%. Banditry and separatist unrest further erode stability. External shocks—COVID-19’s 6.1% GDP contraction in Q2 2020, per the IMF, and Ukraine-driven fuel price hikes (petrol to ₦671 per litre in 2023, per the AfDB)—have compounded the damage. Yet, these challenges, while daunting, are not destiny.

The GDP’s 50% plunge is partly a statistical artefact. The 2014 rebasing inflated it by 89%, but naira devaluation reversed dollar-based gains. In purchasing power parity (PPP), Nigeria’s economy stood at $1.2 trillion in 2023, per the IMF, among Africa’s top three. Still, the human cost is stark: 63% of Nigerians—133 million—face multidimensional poverty, per the NBS, with 10.5 million children out of school, the world’s highest. Youth unemployment, at 40% in 2023, drives the “Japa” exodus—5,000 doctors emigrated in 2022, per the Nigerian Medical Association. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), comprising 96% of businesses and 84% of jobs, per The Business Year 2024, access just 5% of bank loans. These figures are sobering, but they underscore a latent capacity yearning for activation.

Nigeria’s fundamentals remain compelling. Its tech sector—epitomised by Flutterwave and Paystack—secured $1.8 billion in venture capital in 2023, per TechCabal, with annual growth of 30% since 2020. Agriculture spans 70 million arable hectares, a resource base that slashed rice imports by 40% since 2015, per the AfDB. The Dangote Refinery, operational since 2024 with 650,000 barrels daily, promises $5 billion in annual forex savings. A population projected to reach 428 million by 2050, per UN estimates, offers an unrivalled market. Nigeria’s economic reset hinges on harnessing these strengths through decisive, pragmatic measures. Below are the critical steps to restore and elevate this giant.

Diversification must be the cornerstone. Agriculture, with targeted investment, could generate $100 billion annually. Mechanisation—raising tractor density from 1 per 100 farmers to 10, as in Kenya, per the FAO—could double yields within five years. Nigeria’s 60% share of global cassava production, currently worth $1.5 billion, could reach $5 billion with processing plants, per UNCTAD projections. Leveraging the $2 trillion global halal market, where demand grows 6% annually, per the Halal Trade Expo, is a natural fit—northern Nigeria’s 100 million Muslims could supply certified meat to the Gulf, mirroring Malaysia’s $12 billion halal export success. A $500 million fund for irrigation and agro-industrial zones, coupled with 10-year tax holidays, could catalyse this shift, emulating Ghana’s Planting for Food initiative, which tripled rice output since 2017.

Energy reform is non-negotiable. Nigeria’s $29 billion annual power deficit demands a 10,000 MW boost by 2030—solar farms in the sun-drenched north, harnessing 300 days of sunlight, could deliver half, drawing on Kenya’s $1 billion renewable model that electrified 70% of rural areas. Private investment, as demonstrated by Dangote’s $19 billion refinery, could bridge the $190 billion energy gap, per UNCTAD estimates, if paired with grid upgrades slashing 40% transmission losses, per the World Bank. Reliable power would revive manufacturing, lifting its GDP share to 15% within a decade and unlocking export potential under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Corruption requires surgical intervention. Digitising oil flows, as Norway does with real-time tracking, could recover $10 billion yearly, per NNPC data. E-governance—online tax and procurement platforms—could save $2 billion in leakages, per EFCC projections, while a robust anti-graft framework with independent audits and whistleblower protections rebuilds credibility. Foreign direct investment, which fell 33% to $3.3 billion in 2023, per UNCTAD, would rebound as opacity fades.

SMEs, the economy’s backbone, need oxygen. A $1 billion loan guarantee scheme, akin to South Africa’s SME Fund that created 30,000 jobs since 2019, could unlock $10 billion in credit, addressing the 5% lending gap. Vocational training for 1 million entrepreneurs annually—mirroring Rwanda’s 7% youth unemployment drop—enhances competitiveness. Linking SMEs to AfCFTA’s $3.4 trillion market via export hubs could elevate intra-African trade from 16% to 30%, per AfDB targets.

Human capital is the linchpin. Raising education spending to 15% of the budget—$10 billion—could build 10,000 schools, per UNESCO benchmarks, halving the 10.5 million out-of-school figure. Technical institutes, like Ghana’s, could train 500,000 youths yearly, cutting unemployment by 5%. Healthcare demands $1 billion for 1,000 mobile clinics, reaching 20 million rural residents and staunching medical brain drain—India’s model reduced infant mortality 30%. A skilled, healthy workforce is Nigeria’s competitive edge.

Infrastructure must match ambition. A $15 billion overhaul—bolstered by the AfDB’s $1.44 billion 2024 commitment—could halve logistics costs, currently $1 billion yearly. Rail links, like Ethiopia’s $4 billion Addis-Djibouti line, and port digitisation, as at Morocco’s Tanger Med, would expedite trade, positioning Nigeria as an AfCFTA hub. The naira’s flotation and $10 billion subsidy savings, per PwC, are steps forward; execution must be relentless.

Nigeria’s 50% GDP drop is a jolt, not a death knell. Its $1 trillion nominal GDP potential by 2050, per PwC, is within reach if these measures take root. Investors should note: a market of 220 million, with tech growing 30% annually, offers outsized returns despite risks. Policymakers must act—133 million in poverty brook no delay. Nigeria can lead Africa anew, its resilience forged in adversity. The question is not if, but how swiftly, it seizes this moment.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

What is the Role of Bosnia in Strengthening Halal Supply Chains in Europe?

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4 weeks ago

March 20, 2025

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Hafiz M. Ahmed

Imagine walking into a supermarket in Paris, Berlin, or London, scanning the shelves for halal-certified products. You pick up a pack of chicken, a bottle of olive oil, and a box of cookies, all bearing the halal logo. But have you ever wondered how these products made it to the shelf? Behind every halal-certified item lies a complex supply chain that ensures its authenticity, safety, and compliance with Islamic principles. In Europe, where the demand for halal products is growing rapidly, building a reliable and transparent halal supply chain is no small feat. Enter Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country that has emerged as a key player in strengthening halal supply chains across the continent.

With its deep-rooted Islamic heritage, cutting-edge certification processes, and collaborative approach, Bosnia is setting a new standard for halal integrity in Europe. This article explores Bosnia’s pivotal role in creating a robust halal supply chain, its collaborations with other halal-certified organizations, and why its efforts matter for businesses and consumers alike.

The Growing Demand for Halal Products in Europe

Europe is home to over 25 million Muslims, a number that is expected to grow in the coming years. This demographic shift has fueled a surge in demand for halal products, from food and beverages to cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. According to a report by Statista, the European halal food market alone is projected to reach $30 billion by 2025. However, meeting this demand is not without its challenges.

One of the biggest hurdles is ensuring the integrity of the halal supply chain. From farm to fork, every step of the process must adhere to strict halal standards. This includes sourcing halal-certified raw materials, using compliant processing methods, and maintaining transparency throughout the supply chain. For businesses, this requires a high level of coordination and expertise—something that Bosnia has mastered.

Bosnia’s Expertise in Halal Certification: A Foundation for Trust

Bosnia and Herzegovina has long been a leader in the global halal industry, thanks in large part to its Agency for Halal Quality Certification (AHQC). Established in 2007, the AHQC is renowned for its rigorous standards and transparent processes. But Bosnia’s contribution to the halal industry goes beyond certification; it plays a critical role in strengthening halal supply chains across Europe.

Here’s how Bosnia is making a difference:

Setting Rigorous Standards: The AHQC’s certification process is one of the most stringent in the world. It covers every stage of production, from sourcing raw materials to packaging and distribution. This ensures that products bearing the Bosnia Halal Certification logo meet the highest standards of quality and compliance.
Promoting Transparency: Transparency is at the heart of Bosnia’s approach to halal certification. The AHQC requires detailed documentation and conducts regular audits to ensure ongoing compliance. This level of transparency builds trust among consumers and businesses alike.
Leveraging Technology: Bosnia is at the forefront of using technology to enhance halal supply chains. From blockchain to track and trace systems, the country is leveraging innovative solutions to ensure the integrity of halal products.

Collaborations: The Key to a Stronger Halal Supply Chain

Bosnia’s success in strengthening halal supply chains is not a solo effort. It is the result of strategic collaborations with other halal-certified organizations, businesses, and government bodies across Europe. These partnerships have been instrumental in creating a more reliable and transparent halal ecosystem.

Partnerships with Halal-Certified Businesses: Bosnia works closely with businesses that are committed to halal integrity. By providing them with certification and guidance, the AHQC helps these companies navigate the complexities of the halal supply chain.
Collaborations with International Halal Organizations: Bosnia is an active member of global halal organizations such as the AHAC – Association of halal Crttifiers. These collaborations ensure that Bosnia’s standards align with international best practices.
Government Support: The Bosnian government has been a strong advocate for the halal industry, providing funding and support for initiatives that promote halal integrity. This has enabled the AHQC to expand its reach and impact.
Educational Initiatives: Bosnia is also investing in education and training to raise awareness about halal standards. Through workshops, seminars, and publications, the AHQC is helping to build a more informed and skilled workforce.

Bosnia’s Impact on the European Halal Market

To understand the real-world impact of Bosnia’s efforts, let’s look at a case study. In 2020, a major European supermarket chain partnered with the AHQC to source halal-certified poultry products. The collaboration involved:

Sourcing: The AHQC worked with farmers and suppliers to ensure that the poultry was raised and processed in accordance with halal standards.
Certification: The AHQC certified the entire supply chain, from the farm to the supermarket shelf.
Transparency: The supermarket chain used blockchain technology to provide consumers with real-time information about the product’s journey.

The result? A 20% increase in sales of halal-certified poultry products within six months. This success story highlights the tangible benefits of Bosnia’s approach to halal supply chain management.

Why Bosnia’s Role Matters for Europe

Bosnia’s contributions to the halal industry have far-reaching implications for Europe. Here’s why:

Consumer Confidence: By ensuring the integrity of halal supply chains, Bosnia is helping to build consumer confidence in halal-certified products. This is crucial in a market where trust is paramount.
Economic Growth: The halal industry is a significant driver of economic growth. By strengthening halal supply chains, Bosnia is creating new opportunities for businesses and boosting the European economy.
Cultural Integration: The halal industry plays a vital role in promoting cultural integration. By providing high-quality halal products, Bosnia is helping to meet the needs of Europe’s diverse population.
Global Leadership: Bosnia’s expertise in halal certification and supply chain management positions it as a global leader in the industry. This not only enhances its reputation but also sets a benchmark for other countries to follow.

Challenges and the Way Forward

While Bosnia has made significant strides in strengthening halal supply chains, challenges remain. These include:

Standardization: Despite Bosnia’s efforts, there is still a lack of uniformity in halal standards across Europe. This can create confusion for businesses and consumers.
Fraud and Mislabeling: The rise of counterfeit halal products is a growing concern. Bosnia is addressing this issue through stricter regulations and advanced tracking technologies.
Awareness: Many consumers and businesses are still unaware of the importance of halal certification. Bosnia is tackling this through educational initiatives and outreach programs.

Looking ahead, Bosnia’s focus will be on fostering greater collaboration, leveraging technology, and raising awareness about halal standards. By doing so, it aims to create a more robust and transparent halal supply chain that benefits everyone.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has emerged as a beacon of reliability and transparency in the European halal industry. Through its rigorous standards, innovative solutions, and collaborative approach, the country is playing a pivotal role in strengthening halal supply chains across the continent. For businesses, this means access to a growing market and a trusted partner in halal certification. For consumers, it means peace of mind knowing that the products they purchase meet the highest standards of quality and authenticity.

As the demand for halal products continues to rise, Bosnia’s contributions will become even more significant. By setting a benchmark for integrity and excellence, Bosnia is not only shaping the future of the halal industry in Europe but also inspiring the world to follow suit.

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