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Four ways the planetary crisis is impacting mental health

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Four ways the planetary crisis is impacting mental health
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South Asian region is excessively wide-open to climate change effects; comprising higher temperatures, sea-level rise, inconsistent rainfall, amplified occurrence and harshness of extreme weather incidents, increased overflow and glacial melting. It is anticipated as the nastiest impacted regions by climate change and global warming because of geophysical environment in addition to the socio economic and demographic backwardness of population. There are millions of people bearing the burden of these catastrophes due to reliance upon climate sensitive segments such as forestry, fishing and agriculture for their daily needs. Biodiversity, human health, food security, energy, water, agricultural output as well as coastal arrangements are going to imperil causing increased migrations ultimately escalating pressures over main towns (Hans, 2020).

With the help of mainstreaming climatic resistance in to community development policies and taking along confirmed worthy development practices in to resilience approach conveyance as well as through integrated aptitude towards it can easily help to accomplish uneven methods to advancement and combating negative outcomes of climate change. It is an urgent necessity for domestic, regional and global level to mitigate and take adaptive measures for facing the harsh veracity of climatic change. South Asian states “as one bloc” should make constructive negotiations via international organizations. To achieve this, further regional considerations, cooperation and mutual work is required.

This article attempts to assess the over-all condition of South Asian climatic change and role of national and international organizations in this regard. It also suggests the adaptation based actions and other recommendations to bring improvement. For this, it has been divided into three sections with the explanation below;

Section-I Climate Change in South Asia; Particular Records and Evidences

It is expected that South Asian region will experience 2-6 degree of Celsius increase in the temperature by the ending 21st century era (Rabindranath, 2002). Heating up of roughly 0.21 Degree-Celsius every ten years is anticipated for coming twenty years (Jayant, 2007).

Past and future climatic aspects and alterations in temperature are shown here. (Figure 01 and Figure 02)

(Figure-01) Current/Past Köppen Climate Classification map for South Asia (1980-2016)

(Figure-02) Predicted Köppen Climate Classification map for South Asia (2071-2100)

According to the experts, South Asia is already suffering the wrath of climate change. There are influences on economic enactments of the South Asian states mainly and the livelihoods of thousands of folks of this area are affected and even in the near future this situation will be worst. South Asian region is projected as the most awful affected global regions because of climate change, and this is due to various reasons: like geo-climatic surroundings, excessive dependence on agriculture, socio-economic and demographic credentials etc. (Nazrul Islam, 2014).

Yohe et al., (2008) reflects that biodiversity, coastal ecosystem, food, human health, water resources, land deprivation etc. are deliberated as extremely vulnerable for this region on basis of climatic-change. Cyclones, famine, overflows, storms etc. are in the lives of millions of South Asians. On the other hand, the severity and intensity of these incidents in the recent times are increasing badly which is very worrisome. Scientists discourse that because of inclusive climate-change, incidences like these, will increase in coming era and take along a lot of despair for lots of folks. In this region, forthcoming years in several parts mainly in Maldives, islands or coastal areas of India and Sri Lanka, Southern coastal localities of Bangladesh are totally unreliable. Evidences illustrate that rise of 1 meter in the sea-level may cause an economic cost of 1259 million dollars in India only and this is almost equal to 0.37% of the total GNP (Jayashree, 2007). Total GDP loss since 2010 to future projection till 2100 has been shown here (Figure-03). Besides this economic loss, another worst consequence will be the incursion of ‘environmental refugees’ (term proposed by Lester Brown in 1976) in the overburdened hubs of South Asia, that is going to jeopardize the environmental, commercial, as well as societal balance in this region.

(Figure-03) Total Economic cost (GDP Loss) of Climate Change, South Asia

South Asian region is susceptible to various climate change hazards which are linked with its geography, population, economic infrastructure etc. These are;

Glacial Melting: The peaks of Himalayas are sustenance for almost one and half billions of population, living in flood-plains of several rivers flowing from it. Around 10 percent rivers of Himalaya emanate by water-melting of snow peaks, and is very indispensable for endurance during dry spells (ADB, 2009). But due to growing temperatures, the Himalayas’ ice mass is waning more speedily than universal average, and it will badly impact the Basins. Water scarcity during summer-months, that denotes approximately 61% of the yearly current, can impact this zone at the crucial time while people want water for the purpose of cultivation or hydro-power in addition to others. The change in snow melting and snow covering patterns will be affecting river flow in coming term (ADB, 2009). As per the studies of International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, at hand are possibly twenty unsafe glacial water bodies in Nepal as well as twenty-five in Bhutan, which pretense hazard of upsurge overflows towards remote populations (Ives et al., 2010).

Land Erosion: Increase in floods, storms, surges, rainfall, rise in the sea-level besides anthropological activities are reasons of deteriorating destruction in South Asian zone. Over-grazed rangelands, coastal lands and stripped highlands got pretentious specifically. 26.5 percent of coast-line is disposed to corrosion in India, by around 450 hectares of mass land lost on yearly basis. Coastline of Sri Lanka is also matter to substantial erosion in specific areas, whereas the mountain state is susceptible to the recurrent landslides. Mountain communities in India, Bhutan and Nepal, are facing landslides regularly (Hans, 2020). Economies, habitats, agriculture and narrowing livelihood prospects, especially of the country side underprivileged are getting damaged. In South Asia, shoreline besides foothill territory erosion is going to worsen in years ahead because of extreme weather events occurrence due to climatic change.   

Rising Sea-Level: Stretched plus comprehensively settled coastlines of the region are extremely in danger of sea-level increase. Only in state of Bangladesh the level of sea is anticipated to upsurge 46 cm by the year 2050, affecting 10 to 15 percent of land mass and assessed 35 million people (GOB, 2007).  It has been also projected that sea-level will grow by 15-39 cm by 2050 in India, placing major cities including Kolkata, Kochi as well as Mumbai at menace. A great fraction of Coastal line of Sri Lanka stays under 1-meter overhead of the sea level, which can get sunken due to high waves, alongside its transportation substructure. Average altitude of Maldives’ landmasses is 1.50 meters above the level of sea, therefore survival is in threat which could be triggered by large scale migrations, having ripple impacts across the borders. Rise in the sea level gives path to saline water incursion, which possess risk for supply of drinking water, agriculture and aquatic lives. Above hundred million hectares got affected in Bangladesh, and whole of Maldives got wedged via salt-water meddling because of rising of sea-levels. It also came under forecast that Thatta and Badin-two historical cities in Sindh, Pakistan will get swallowed by the sea till 2050 because the sea is encroaching eighty acres of land per day. Sea-level rise has been shown covering 21st century over here. (Figure-04)

(Figure-04) Anticipated sea level changes by the end of 21st Century for Three Emission Scenarios based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model Results

Floods: Major zones of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal are inclined to recurring floods because of low elevation, heavy monsoon rains and blocked natural drainage. Melting of glaciers and rising of seas levels with maximum chance of storm surges and flooding caused by climatic change can put state of Bangladesh at specific risk, because of three large river systems’ convergence, side by side assembling the rainwater of an area twelve times larger than the country. In Bangladesh for nine months, floods could last. Abrupt monsoon rains trapped South Asian region improvised to deal with the floods, which affected almost thirty million people of India, Bangladesh and Nepal in 2007. Approximately 1.1 million homes and 11 million people got damaged and displaced during 2010 floods in Pakistan (Hans, 2020). Recent flood in 2022 has also caused a huge loss to Pakistani nation.

Cyclones: Cyclone Amphan, a strongest storm is one of the recent examples which slammed into India and Bangladesh in May, 2020. It ended up with 3 million evacuees and damaged around 2 million homes there. People of India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were displaced at large scale. Such stormy weathers are recurrent shift triggers. Back in year 2009, 2.3 million Indians and nearly 1 million of Bangladeshi people were displaced by Cyclone Aila (Kugelman, 2020).

Section-II National, Regional and Global level Climate Actions in South Asian

National Level Efforts: Laws and policies are made for mitigation and adaptation against climate change by governments across South Asia. In 2005, after Indian Ocean Tsunami had affected millions of people, Maldives had developed a plan to relocate their population towards higher grounds and now they plan to build new islands altogether. But issues like corruption, not enough funds and poor infrastructure are great hurdles in the enforcement of these policies. Currently national initiatives range from basic to proper proactive measures like plantation, constructing concrete houses at coastal areas etc. In India, action plan promotes energy efficiency, renewable energy, water management and sustainable agriculture. For reducing migration risks elevated from climate issues, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) guarantees to provide hundred days of paid-employment yearly to the wages manual worker. 10 billion US Dollars are given to 60 cities for developing infrastructure by Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, so that they can accommodate migrants from other parts. Moreover, the program Afat Vimo gives insurance for losses such as of earthquakes, cyclones, landslides or floods etc. In the meantime, there is a climate change policy in Pakistan for addressing migration due to climate severity, national food security policy for making agriculture productive and resilient to weather variations. Bangladesh is also initiating its plans under National Strategies on the Management of Disasters and Climate-Induced problems. Sustainable productions of fruits, forests as well as fish resources are being developed. The state is forerunner of this region due to putting efforts for integrating climate-change issue in to interagency structure of its government. Policies are made for establishing climatic change organization, governmental advisory body and planning commissions in every ministry.

States of this region emphasized sustainable farming progression and put efforts for reducing water-resources’ vulnerability besides aquatic threats for addressing adaptation community based approaches are integrated with institutional systemic mitigation and adaptation (MOE, 2011a, 2011b; MOEF, 2012a, 2012b; GOIRP, 2003; RGOB, n.d.; ROM, 2001; GON, 2011a; 2011b). Bangladesh set its objective to ensure food security from 2010 to 2015. Bhutan tried to promote adaptation in hydro power and agriculture sector by creating awareness and developing reliable capacity for facing climatic threats in future. India has enhanced infrastructure growth to ensure lesser impacts of weather disasters. Objective of Maldives’ government till 2020 was to assist adaptation in coastal settlement, tourism, health, water resources, food, agriculture, coral reef, fisheries as well as infrastructure development sectors. Nepal’s Action plan deals with food security related issues. Pakistan is aiming to guarantee foodstuff, water also energy-security for minimizing natural disasters’ impacts till 2030. Whereas Sri Lanka’s resilience to climate change programs focused on water resources, fisheries and agriculture segments during 2011-2016.

But despite of these policies and plans, actual implementation cannot be seen. Indian climate change action plan faced criticism due to lack of strategies for executing it. Institutions have failed to achieve their set agendas at a large scale. In Pakistan, situation is same as well. As their policy which aimed for an implementation frame work, actually did not implemented adaptation plans. Although capital has passed climate related laws but have not focused on enforcement. Provincial officials lacking technical or financial capacity faced challenges too. In addition to this negligence, Bangladesh even of it pioneer status, does not possess a national climate change policy and is facing many threats due to inefficient frame work.

Regional Level Efforts:  For combating environmental degradation concerns, regional cooperation got initiated during 1987 in 3rd South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Conference. It was recognized there that natural disasters of this region are strongly linked with climatic change. For this purpose, “Regional Study on the Causes and Consequences of Natural Disasters and the Protection and Preservation of Environment-1991” as well as an additional reading over “Greenhouse Effect and its Impact on the Region-1992” was initiated. It recommended measures of sharing experiences, information and awareness regarding climate change, transferring technological skills etc. For revising those studies, in 1997 SAARC-Plan of Action for Environment got implemented. This made sure the formation of Regional-Centers of Excellence, like SAARC Meteorology Research Centre (SMRC) made in Dhaka-1995, SAARC Coastal Zone Management Centre (SCZMC) prepared in Male-2004, SAARC Disaster Management Centre (SDMC) built in New Delhi-2007 in addition to SAARC Forestry Center present in Bhutan lately. Centers provide reliable support to institutions for bringing the issues of climatic change or calamity risk-super vision in this region. SAARC also executed South Asia Disaster Knowledge Network from 2009 to 2012, financed by World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. It shared information and awareness regarding risk minimization in region (Krampe & Swain, 2018).

As per SAARC, it is chief obligation of national governments to implement the Action Plan. Under regional cooperation, this Plan demands for effective mechanism which will cooperatively work with existing institutions according to the given guidelines and directions. Different Workshops like Science and Technology Solicitations in calamity menace Reduction Workshop-January, 2008-New Delhi as well as marine and coastal Risks in Goa-May 2008 highlighted the need of exchanging information and researches about climatic change adaptation among all the states in South Asia.

Climate Action Network-South Asia is also a civil society organization comprising more than 200 associations. It works to promote sustainable development and protects environment, by linking research, policies and work based on action for addressing adverse impacts of climatic disturbance. CANSA remain at forefront to represent Southern views at International Climate-negotiations.

Global Level Efforts: Various environmental conventions, agreements, treaties, legislations and protocols like the UN Conference on Human Environment-1972, Our Common Future-1987, the Earth Summit-1992, the Kyoto Protocol-1992, Johannesburg Summit-2002, Bali Conference-2007, Poznan Conference-2008, Hyogo Framework for Action-2005 to 2015, Paris Agreement-2015, Asia-Pacific climate change adaption information platform-2019 were joint efforts to combat environmental hazards and minimize impacts of climate change globally.

International Union for Conservation of Nature-1948, United Nations Environment Program-1972, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-1988, Global Environment Facility-1991, Earth System Governance Project-2009, World Nature Organization-2010 are some of the international-level organizations working for protecting ecology and environment world-wide. These all are based on framework of resilience based policies, early warning systems, disaster threat lessening tools’ usage, techno-legal regime for development practices, susceptibility and hazard calculations, land-use preparation, and augmenting official and lawful volumes to be adopted by nations and communities to combat environmental degradation security challenge. Integration of information about disaster risk management and enforcement of that information for bridging the gap of dealing with risks during environmental alterations is stressed by such international-level actions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), under Kyoto Protocol aims that developed countries will stabilize discharge of greenhouse-gases in addition they would be provided by solutions and tools for such maintenance via promoting Clean Development Mechanisms in the developing countries. Another major contribution of the Convention was Bali Action plan for enhancing adaptation in risk management domains.

Natural tragedies with the menacing influences over subsist and their means of support are increasing, which basically shifted the paradigm towards disaster-management of South Asian regions. This shift is to all-inclusive management of disasters reduction covering its entire phases from only one post disaster reprieve and reintegration. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is the main focus comprising preparedness, prevention and mitigation measures. These programs are related to hydro-meteorological disasters like flood protection, alternative livelihood initiatives, droughts proofing, saline embankment or bio shields etc. are same like programs of climate change adaptation. Therefore, integration between both of these programs is necessary. It will augment developments by increasing relevancy with the contemporary challenges.

Even after such efforts, human population is facing severe security challenge of environmental degradation which is leading towards survival hardships. On the contrary of all action plans, there is no legal framework for climate induced displacement and even there is no consent based definition of environmental refugee. However, International Organization for Migration has made a framework product on dealing with migrations due to climate change after research has been done in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Red Cross and World Bank have also offered scientific and technical assistance for catastrophe risk-management agendas in states here. Region’s Water-Initiative by World Bank gives analytical and technological help for forecasting floods in Ganges Basin. Climate adaptation and resilience for South Asia is another venture which provides funding for development. Bilateral donors, UK’s National Weather service and aid-agency also contributes in developing early-warning structures for climatic susceptible populations of the region.   

Section-III Solutions based on mitigating and adaptive methods to combat climatic change impacts

National, regional and international efforts are encouraging but these are not sufficient. There is much more the local and global community should do for helping reducing exposure of region to climate vulnerabilities. 

Here are some suggestions by which the severity of climate change impacts can be minimized:

1.Carbon emissions should be reduced and environmental friendly, sustainable technologies with less carbon-emission should be used. Due to emission of greenhouse gases via thermal plants, renewable energy sources are required to be used. All governments should make re-forestation their priority and ensure sustainable use of forests, natural resources and specially water.

2.More livelihood opportunities should be promoted in the non-agrarian domains. As it’s the major income source of a lot of South Asians and though a vulnerable segment. Therefore, farmers and other workers are susceptible to weather alterations. International organizations can donate for vocational trainings and skill enhancement programs for making millions of population able to work in other sectors like electronics, retails, telecommunications etc.

3.Provincial authorities should be empowered to tackle climate related disasters. In this region provincial governments lack requisite resources and expertise to combat impacts so they should be trained and funds should be provided to them. Decentralization is not enough when there is no implementation of policies at local or ground level. Analysts identified it very critical for the case of Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh (Parry et al., 2013, p. 33; Regmi & Bhandari, 2013; TAF, 2012). Sponsor trainings and awareness programs as well as check and balance by federal officials can solve this issue.

4.United States should assimilate climate change adaptation and mitigation assistance in to administration’s main Asia Policy and Indo-Pacific strategies. US officials consider South Asian region as fragment of Indo Pacific region therefore, aims for making strong ties with this region under the policy. Although cooperation based areas are less in number mainly based on counter-terrorism or maritime joint venture. US should allow its American Development Bank for investing in sectors like sustainable agriculture or disaster resilient structure for minimizing climate-change effects.

5.There is lack in financing and funding and this is a major reason for working on adaptation based measures against climate threats. Policies regarding it are hindering the situation as Pakistan can be taken as an example which primarily focused on external financing and not promoting internal one to deal such threats (GOP, 2012). There were bilateral donors helping like in 2009 almost eighteen donors assisted Nepal in climate change adaptation and same happened in Bangladesh, but implementing the plans into firm actions had been often seen here (CCNN, 2011; Alam et al., 2011). For overcoming these kinds of hurdles, internal as well as external parties should donate for the cause to protect whole region from adverse impacts of climatic severity.

6.Regional cooperation is a great need of this time to jointly combat the threats of climatic change. The region is rife with many tensions and strains among Pakistan and India, Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as India and other smaller neighboring states. Intra-regional trade is also less as compared to other regions and non-existence of commercial collaboration further deprives it from solidification and mutual path towards prosperity. In addition to this, the main regional body SAARC is somehow paralyzed in taking actions because of Pakistan-India stress full diplomatic relations. Diplomats from neutral states and other external actors should therefore initiate Track-II diplomacy and arrange multi-lateral forums for helping to build consent based joint plan, by which climate change threats can be addressed. Programs like Dhaka Declaration on Climate Change and SAARC Food Security Reserve should be implemented which had languished for years. These can promote regional cooperation and capacity building as well as can reserve food grains for communities exposed to climate threats during disasters.

7.Furthermore, governments, NGOs and other civil organizations of the region should play their role by disseminating mass awareness regarding climatic change, making people encourage to go for diverse means of livelihoods and different patterns of consumption with the help of media, education or social movements, make them motivated for applying adaptation and mitigation based strategies to combat climatic change impacts.

CONCLUSION

South Asian climate related security-risks demand for governments to step up and international communities to support the cause and save the region. Now is the time to better understand future climate anticipations’ implication for ongoing expositions. Though the efforts of integrating stakeholders and diverse structures of institutes in climatic change scenario are being made and many international level treaties, agreements or mega projects are planned but outcome is despondent. There is a lot more to be done. Responsibility lies on major powers-global policemen to compensate developing states by initiating development grants, projects implementations and infrastructure betterment.

COVID-19 crisis is a lesson and window of opportunity for all to re-form national and international politics according to the liberal stand point of cooperation. In climate change context, optimistic attitude is very much needed as radical change is always possible. Re-alignment of traditionalists with re-invention of liberal sustainable development plan as well as constructing innovative ideas, discourses and identities will definitely enable International relations for research in coming many decades of national and international level politics.

This research article confirms that paradigm shift is compulsory for confronting non-traditional security threats like climate change. Focusing environment as a referent object is way too necessary now for ensuring over all security and stability of this region as well as whole world. Globalized world and trans-national boundaries ask for more cooperative relations not only to promote trade or production but to fight mutually against every threat. Therefore, beside states, international community has to play its part for combating the contrary influences of climate variation. Individual level awareness and efforts are significant as well. In the beginning, it is only one step which takes all to mutual destiny, so making aware a lay man, who is more vulnerable to climatic hazards means a lot to the over-all contribution of adaptation and mitigation on climate-change in this region of South Asia.

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Lifting the Bottom Billion: Will It Work This Time?

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Imagine being part of a billion people stuck in a cycle of extreme poverty—unable to break free due to war, corruption, lack of education, and isolation from global markets. These individuals make up what economist Paul Collier famously termed the “Bottom Billion.” Despite countless international efforts to address their struggles, many remain trapped in some of the most challenging conditions on earth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. With new strategies and technologies emerging, the big question is: Will it work this time? In this article, we’ll dive into the latest global initiatives and the hurdles still standing in the way of lifting the Bottom Billion out of poverty once and for all.

Understanding the Bottom Billion Crisis

For decades, poverty reduction efforts have centered on providing aid, improving infrastructure, and addressing public health issues. However, the situation for the Bottom Billion is complex and often resistant to traditional development strategies. According to Collier, these individuals are caught in one or more of four traps: conflict, natural resource dependence, landlocked countries with bad neighbors, and poor governance. These traps create cyclical poverty that is difficult to escape.

Recent data shows that while global poverty rates have decreased—thanks to economic growth in places like China and India—the situation for the Bottom Billion remains unchanged in many regions. Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, continues to struggle with high poverty rates, despite decades of international aid. The challenge is not just about money; it’s about addressing the root causes that keep these populations poor.

Current Global Efforts: What’s Being Done?

Several initiatives have been put in place to address the unique challenges faced by the Bottom Billion. These include:

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to end poverty in all its forms by 2030. Goal 1 specifically targets the eradication of extreme poverty, focusing on providing social safety nets, access to basic services, and job creation. While the SDGs offer a comprehensive approach, progress has been uneven, particularly in conflict-affected regions where governance and infrastructure are weak.

2. International Aid and Debt Relief

Foreign aid and debt relief programs have been crucial in offering immediate assistance to impoverished nations. In 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank launched initiatives to alleviate debt for the world’s poorest countries, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) has temporarily freed up resources that these countries can use for critical healthcare and social services. But critics argue that aid, while necessary, often doesn’t address the systemic issues—like governance and corruption—that perpetuate poverty.

3. Microfinance and Social Entrepreneurship

Microfinance has been a popular tool for lifting people out of poverty. By providing small loans to individuals, particularly women, microfinance initiatives aim to stimulate local businesses and empower communities. Organizations like Grameen Bank and Kiva have made significant strides, but scaling these efforts to reach the Bottom Billion remains a challenge. Social entrepreneurship—businesses that focus on generating social impact rather than profit—has also emerged as a promising solution, but its effectiveness is still debated.

The Role of Technology in Poverty Alleviation

One of the most promising developments in the fight against poverty is the role of technology. In recent years, digital tools have shown the potential to bridge gaps in education, healthcare, and financial services.

1. Mobile Banking and Digital Inclusion

Mobile banking, particularly in countries like Kenya with platforms like M-Pesa, has revolutionized financial access for the poor. These platforms allow users to transfer money, save, and even access loans without needing a traditional bank account. For the Bottom Billion, many of whom live in rural or underserved areas, mobile banking provides a lifeline for economic participation. However, challenges around digital literacy and infrastructure still need to be addressed.

2. Online Education and E-Learning Platforms

Education is another area where technology can make a transformative impact. The rise of e-learning platforms offers the opportunity to bring quality education to even the most remote regions. Projects like Khan Academy and Coursera have made strides in offering free educational content to people worldwide, but scaling this in regions where internet access is scarce or expensive remains a hurdle.

3. Telemedicine and Healthcare Access

Telemedicine has the potential to bridge gaps in healthcare, particularly in areas where access to hospitals or doctors is limited. With the help of mobile technology, remote consultations and diagnostics are becoming more common in developing countries. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine has become a critical tool, allowing healthcare workers to reach vulnerable populations. However, expanding this service to the Bottom Billion will require investment in both digital infrastructure and healthcare systems.

One of the biggest barriers to lifting the Bottom Billion out of poverty is poor governance. Corruption, weak institutions, and lack of transparency make it difficult for aid and development programs to reach those who need them most. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index consistently shows that the most impoverished countries are also among the most corrupt.

In countries with poor governance, even well-meaning efforts can fail. Aid money often doesn’t reach its intended recipients, infrastructure projects stall, and political instability exacerbates existing problems. Addressing governance issues is critical to making any poverty alleviation program successful.

So, will it work this time? The answer lies in a multifaceted approach that goes beyond just financial aid. Here are a few key elements that must be addressed for any hope of success:

  1. Improving Governance: Without addressing corruption and weak institutions, any efforts will be undermined. Initiatives that promote transparency, accountability, and democratic governance will be crucial.
  2. Inclusive Economic Growth: Economic development must reach the most marginalized groups, particularly women, rural communities, and those living in conflict zones. Programs that focus on building local economies and creating jobs will be vital.
  3. Leveraging Technology: Digital tools offer immense potential, but they must be accessible to all. Expanding internet access and digital literacy will be key in enabling the Bottom Billion to participate in the global economy.
  4. Local Solutions for Local Problems: Global strategies must be adapted to local contexts. What works in Southeast Asia may not work in sub-Saharan Africa. Engaging local communities in the decision-making process is essential for sustainable progress.

Lifting the Bottom Billion is one of the most daunting challenges of our time. While the task is immense, it is not impossible. By focusing on good governance, inclusive growth, and technological innovation, the global community has a chance to make meaningful progress in reducing extreme poverty. Will it work this time? Only if we approach the problem with a comprehensive, targeted, and sustainable strategy. The stakes are high, but the rewards—improving the lives of a billion people—are worth every effort.


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Easing Africa’s Debt Burdens: a Fresh Approach, Based on an Old Idea

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In his address to the 79th session of the UN general assembly this week, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa described debt as “a millstone around the neck of developing countries”. Three legal and economic scholars set out the African debt problem and what must happen if African countries are to get out of what Ramaphosa described as “a quicksand of debt”.

The statistics are stark: 54 governments, of which 25 are African, are spending at least 10% of their revenues on servicing their debts; 48 countries, home to 3.3 billion people, are spending more on debt service than on health or education. Among them, 23 African countries are spending more on debt service than on health or education. While the international community stands by, these countries are servicing their debts and defaulting on their development goals. The Group of 20’s current approach for dealing with the debts of low income countries is the Common Framework.

It requires the debtor to first discuss its problems with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and obtain its assessment of how much debt relief it needs. Then it must negotiate with its official creditors – international organisations, governments and government agencies – over how much debt relief they will provide. Only then can the debtor reach an agreement – on comparable terms to the official creditors – with its commercial creditors. Unfortunately, this process has been sub-optimal.

One reason is that it works too slowly to meet the urgent needs of distressed borrowers. As a result, it condemns debtor countries to financial limbo. The resulting uncertainty is not in anyone’s interest. For example, Zambia has been working through the G20’s cumbersome process for more than three and a half years and has not yet finalised agreements with all its creditors.  The need for a new approach is overwhelmingly evident. Although the current crisis has not yet become the “systemic” threat it was in the 1980s when multiple countries defaulted on their debt, it is a “silent” sovereign debt crisis.

We propose a two-part approach that would improve the situation of sovereign debtors and their creditors. This proposal is based on the lessons we have learned from our work on the legal and economic aspects of developing country debt, particularly African debt.

First, we suggest that official creditors and the IMF create a strategic buyer of “last resort” that can purchase the bonds of debt distressed countries and refinance them on better terms.

Second, we recommend that all parties involved in sovereign debt restructurings adopt a set of principles that they can use to guide the debtor and its creditors in reaching an optimal agreement and monitoring its implementation.

The current approach fails to deal effectively and fairly with both the concerns of the creditors and all the debtor’s legal obligations and responsibilities. Our proposed solution would offer debtors debt relief that does not undermine their ability to meet their other legal obligations and responsibilities, while also accommodating private creditors’ preference for cash payments.

Our proposal is not risk-free. And buybacks are not appropriate for all debtors. Nevertheless it offers a principled and feasible approach to dealing with a silent debt crisis that threatens to undermine international efforts to address global challenges such as climate, poverty and inequality.

It uses the IMF’s existing resources to meet both the bondholders’ preferences for immediate cash and the developing countries’ need to reduce their debt burdens in a transparent and principled way. It also helps the international community avoid a widespread default on debt and development.

Bondholders are a major problem

Foreign bondholders, who are the major creditors of many developing countries, have proven to be particularly challenging in providing substantive debt relief in a timely manner. In theory, they should be more flexible than official creditors.

Developing countries have been paying bondholders a premium to compensate them for providing financing to borrowers that are perceived to be risky. As a result, bondholders have already received larger payouts than official creditors. Therefore, they should be better placed than official creditors to assist the debtor in the restructuring processes. However, despite having received  large returns from defaulted bonds, bondholders have remained obstinate in debt restructurings. Our proposal seeks to overcome this hurdle in a way that is fair to debtors, creditors and their respective stakeholders.

How it would work

First, the official creditors and the IMF should create and fund a strategic buyer “of last resort” who can purchase distressed (and expensive) debt at a discount from bondholders. The buyer, now the creditor of the country in distress, can repackage the debt and sell it to the debtor country on more manageable terms. The net result is that the bondholders receive cash for their bonds, while the debtor country benefits from substantial debt relief. In addition, the debtor and its remaining official creditors benefit from a simplified debt restructuring process.

This concept has precedent. In 1989, as part of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, the international community’s effort to deal with the then existing debt burdens of poor countries, the World Bank Group established the Debt Reduction Facility, which helped eligible governments repurchase their external commercial debts at deep discounts. It completed 25 transactions which helped erase approximately US$10.3 billion in debt principal and over US$3.5 billion in interest arrears.

Some individual countries have also bought back their own debt. In 2009, Ecuador repurchased 93% of its defaulted debt at a deep discount. This enabled the government to reduce its debt stock by 27% and promote economic growth in subsequent years. Unfortunately, the countries currently in debt distress lack sufficient foreign reserves to pursue such a strategy. Hence, they need to find a “friendly” buyer of last resort.

The IMF is well positioned to play this role. It has the mandate to support countries during financial crises. It also has the resources to fund such a facility. It can use a mix of its own resources, including its gold reserves, and donor funding, such as a portion of the US$100 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the IMF’s own reserve currency, which rich economies committed to reallocate for development purposes. Such a facility, for example, would have enabled Kenya to refinance its debts at the SDR interest rate, currently at 3.75% per year, rather than at the 10.375% rate it paid in the financial markets.

It is noteworthy that the 47 low-income countries identified as in need of debt relief have just US$60 billion in outstanding debts owed to bondholders. Our proposed buyer of last resort would help reduce the burden of these countries to manageable levels. Second, we propose that both debtors and creditors should commit to the following set of shared principles, based on internationally accepted norms and standards for debt restructurings.

Guiding principles

1. Guiding norms: Sovereign debt restructurings should be guided by six norms: credibility, responsibility, good faith, optimality, inclusiveness and effectiveness.

Optimality means that the negotiating parties should aim to achieve an outcome that, considering the circumstances in which the parties are negotiating and their respective rights, obligations and responsibilities, offers each of them the best possible mix of economic, financial, environmental, social, human rights and governance benefits.

2. Transparency: All parties should have access to the information that they need to make informed decisions.

3. Due diligence: The sovereign debtor and its creditors should each undertake appropriate due diligence before concluding a sovereign debt restructuring process.

4. Optimal outcome assessment: The parties should publicly disclose why they expect their restructuring agreement to result in an optimal outcome.

5. Monitoring: There should be credible mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of the restructuring agreement.

6. Inter-creditor comparability: All creditors should make a comparable contribution to the restructuring of debt.

7. Fair burden sharing: The burden of the restructuring should be fairly allocated between the negotiating parties.

8. Maintaining market access: The process should be designed to facilitate future market access for the borrower at affordable rates.

The G20’s current efforts to address the silent debt crisis are failing. They are contributing to the likely failure of low income countries in Africa and the rest of the global south to offer all their residents the possibility of leading lives of dignity and opportunity.

Danny Bradlow is Professor/Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancement of Scholarship, University of Pretoria

Kevin P. Gallagher is Professor of Global Development Policy and Director, Global Development Policy Center, Boston University

Marina Zucker-Marques is a Senior Academic Researcher, Boston University Global Development Policy Center, Boston University

Courtesy: The Conversation


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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

South African Agriculture Needs to Crack the Chinese Market. How to Boost Exports

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China, the world’s second largest nation by economy and population, is a big buyer of food from the rest of the world. This makes it a potential market for countries that are agricultural producers, like South Africa. But as agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo says, South Africa has lagged behind its competitors in the Chinese market. To increase its share, the country’s policymakers must up their game

South Africa’s agricultural sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms since 1994. This success has been linked to international trade. Exports now account for roughly half (in value terms) of the annual agricultural production. Other drivers have been improvements in productivity through crop and animal genetics.

Exports are largely to the rest of the African continent. In 2023 these accounted for 38% of South Africa’s agricultural exports. The EU is another important market for South Africa’s agricultural sector, accounting for a 19% share in 2023. In recent years, Asia and the Far East, in particular China, have been identified by the agriculture sector and policymakers as the key growth frontiers.

Asia and the Middle East accounted for a quarter of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2023. But huge pockets of opportunity remain, in terms of products and countries. China is the biggest opportunity, largely because of its population and economic size. China, the world’s second largest economy after the US, must feed 1.4 billion people. To do this, China is a huge importer, resulting in an agricultural trade deficit with the rest of the world of about US$117 billion. This suggests there’s a gap for countries with good agricultural offerings.

South Africa has lagged behind its competitors in gaining from this growth in Chinese imports. It stands at number 32 in the list of countries that supply China with food. South Africa’s agricultural exports to China accounted for a mere 0.4% of Chinese imports in 2023.

China’s size warrants more attention than it typically receives from South African policymakers. The South African agricultural sector – I am the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa – has been calling for greater effort on increasing South African exports to China.

Exhibit 1: China’s agricultural trade

Source: Trade Map and Agbiz Research

China’s top agricultural imports include oilseeds, meat, grains, fruits and nuts, cotton, beverages and spirits, sugar, wool, and vegetables. South Africa is already an exporter to various countries in the world of these products and is producing surpluses for some. This means there is room to expand to China, especially as South Africa’s agricultural production continues to increase and with more volume expected in the coming years.

It therefore makes sense for South Africa to focus more on widening export markets to China. This means arguing for a broad reduction in import tariffs that China currently levies on some of the agricultural products from South Africa. Removing phytosanitary constraints in various products is also key.

There is room for more ambitious export efforts. Three government departments must lead the conversation – Trade, Industry and Competition; Agriculture; and International Relations and Cooperation.

What’s holding South Africa back

South Africa has strong political ties with China, bilaterally and through the umbrella group known as Brics and the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation. But these forums are primarily political, not trade blocs.

What South Africa doesn’t have is preferential market access to China’s food markets. This hobbles South African farmers who compete for the Chinese market with Australian and Chilean producers. Australia and Chile have secured trade agreements that give them competitive advantage.

The lack of an agreement that secures better access for South African producers means that they face substantial trade barriers. The main ones are:

What China buys

China’s key agricultural imports include soybeans, cotton, malt, beef, palm oil, wool, wine, fruits, nuts, pork and barley. South Africa is among the top ten global agricultural exporters in most fruits, and a significant producer of wine.

South Africa’s current major exports to China are wool, citrus, nuts, sugar, wine, maize, soybeans, beef and grapes. With the exception of wool, South Africa’s market share of these products remains negligible. South Africa expects an increase in various fruits and nuts production in the coming years from trees that have already been planted.

The wine industry also continues to see decent volumes of production. The same is true for the red meat industry, which is on a path to grow and to expand its export markets. The producers of all these products could benefit from wider access to China.

What’s to be done

South Africa stands as an anomaly among the top global agricultural exporters with limited market access to China for various products. If China is to be an area of focus for export-led growth in agriculture, a new way of engaging will be essential to soften the current trade barriers.

Firstly, a strategic approach to the Chinese agricultural markets needs to be adopted. This would entail dedicated teams from both South African and Chinese departments of agriculture that would deal with details of trade barriers.

Secondly, South Africa should use the Brics platform – of which China is also a member – to call for deepening of agricultural trade among the Brics members. This would help add momentum to the bilateral engagements of South Africa and China.

Thirdly, South Africa should encourage foreign direct investment – in particular Chinese investors – in agriculture for new production in areas which have large tracts of underutilised land. These include the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo provinces.

Having Chinese nationals as partners in agricultural development could help boost trade and business ties between the two countries.

Lastly, China provides a good base for the demand for higher-value agricultural products, which South Africa intends to focus on in its development agenda.

Wandile Sihlobo is a Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University


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