BUSINESS & ECONOMY

A Threat to Global Security: Climate Change

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4 years ago

July 18, 2021

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A Threat to Global Security: Climate Change

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“Go and explain to developing countries why they should continue living in poverty and not be like Sweden”, “No one has explained Greta that the modern world is complex and different and… people in Africa or in many Asian countries want to live at the same wealth level as in Sweden”. These are two of the several statements Russian president Vladimir Putin made in criticism of Greta Thunberg’s UN speech while he spoke during an energy conference last year. But why is the situation that the Russian president is referring to, so complex? And why is that the world leaders who are failing to tackle climate change are now trying to tell the world that it is not just about climate but also geopolitics? This piece tries to delve into the inevitable dilemma that is emerging in the sphere of climate change mitigation and the geopolitics that has always been the one of the topmost priorities for the nations around the globe.

The Present State

Historically, the industries and the global economy has been reliant on fossil fuels, resulting in the anthropogenic climate changes that we are witnessing today. At present, geopolitics is at the center of the struggle for mitigation of the climate change phenomenon. This has led to a variety of responses from different nations. Some are trying to postpone the responsibility, some are trying to deny, and some are trying to spearhead the fight against the problem. However, the issue of climate change is not one that can be solved by one or a subset of nations working in isolation. It remains to be seen how the results of climate change as well as the struggle for mitigation will impact the ground reality for the populations, as it is widely expected that the effects on different nations will be to different extents. Some are set to be hit harder than others, and some are going to be hit even if they have not done anything to contribute to the problem. In this background, many of the concerns about the technological manipulation of nature, environmental destruction, North-South relations, sustainable development, conflict and resource wars have returned to prominence in recent years in the increasingly intense debate about climate change. In this piece we a look at some of the major themes in the geopolitical landscape today related to climate change and climate change mitigation activities.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are two of the several examples of nations which depend on energy commodities export for most part of their revenue. They are also the best examples of nations with vastly established fossil fuel production and processing infrastructure. Accordingly, they face different geopolitical challenges than others in terms of their climate mitigation policy adoptions. Nations like Russia and Saudi Arabia, as well as Qatar, Iran, Venezuela, and UAE depend on exports of oil and gas to developing and emerging economies like China and India. However, an increasing emphasis in these developing economies for a transition towards renewable energy sources has been creating unrest in the oil, gas as well as coal export dependent nations. In case of Russia, another issue, in form of permafrost thawing has been emerging since the last few years as a big worry threatening its infrastructural facilities in Far East region as well as the Siberian region. Last year Russia witnessed several oil spills due to weakening infrastructure in its facilities. However, this issue is dwarfed due to the fact that infrastructure can be upgraded, but if the demand for oil and gas reduces in the global markets due to a renewable energy transition, then the vast infrastructures will become loss generating assets.

In Gulf countries, the narratives of collapse and chaos in a post-oil world has taken over most policy makers’ imagination. According to some predictions, over the next 50 years, these countries could be facing a twin issue of increasing strain on societies and economies due to climate change on one hand and increasing shortage of funds on the other, either due to the decreasing exports and demand, or due to simply less production due to waning stores of energy. Moreover, emergence on alternative sources like shale oil in US and oil and gas in Central Asian region can also lead to increased strain in these countries. This has led to new geopolitical conditions becoming possible for the Gulf region which has for long been dependent on a US hegemony in the region for overall security framework. A receding US interest can witness an increasing interest of other powers like China and Russia.

Moving to the developing world, economies like India, Brazil and even China have at various times expressed an unwillingness to concede mitigation of emissions of greenhouse gases and pointed towards their right to economic and industrial development, world equity and issues. This stance has attracted criticism from the developed world who see this struggle against climate change as a journey in which every nation needs to stand in unity. However, on one hand where concepts like ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibilities’ has emerged in climate action frameworks, countries like India have showed that they are ready to lead in the action for climate change mitigation by implementing policies to work towards a transition to renewable energy. This stance although is also influenced by the fact that India is forced to import most of its fossil fuel needs from other countries which exists as a big burden to its economy. By decreasing its reliance on energy imports, India can look towards following a more independent course in the geopolitical order. As seen in the collapse of Iran-US relations which led to India being forced to abandon its oil imports from Iran, a situation where India is not dependent on oil itself, stands to be a big win. Further, initiatives like the International Solar Alliance have helped India to cultivate India’s image as a responsible global actor, at par with other like the European Union who has been using climate change activism as an element of its foreign policy to retain command over the global climate change policy agenda and thus assert not only regional, but global influence.

Talking about the global powers, US and China are undoubtedly the two biggest players in the world today when it comes to geopolitics, as well as emissions. In US, about half of electricity is generated through coal power plants as the nation has abundant coal deposits. The last four years under President Trump witnessed US detaching itself from major climate change action frameworks like the Paris Agreement based on the reasoning that any policies which have a chance to curb economy growth will have a disastrous effect on the lives of American citizens as well as national security. On the other hand, China, which has for some time now been the biggest greenhouse gas emitter, has now been working towards becoming the leader in sphere of sustainable energy. Chinese president Xi Jinping at the last year’s United Nations General Assembly made the promise that China will become carbon neutral by 2060. According to scholars of the field, through this stance, China not only wants to enhance its geopolitical position as a main partner to EU for future, but also wants to take away attention from its human rights abuses, and aggressive behavior. This phenomenon needs to be understood in the light of the fact that today almost all mining, production and processing of rare earth elements, which are essential for the production of renewable energy infrastructure like solar panels, takes place in China. Thus, providing not only an upper hand to China as an economic power but also as a great geopolitical power in sustainable energy.

Not all countries however face the dilemma of effects of slowing economy in case they go for transition to renewable energy or adopt policies that mitigate emissions. The poorest of the countries stand to go bankrupt and loose relevance due to geopolitics of climate action in case the world decides to transition fast to renewable energy. These are the poor countries of Africa which have recently started establishing their oil production and now almost completely depend on it. As mentioned by Russian president Putin, these are the economies which look towards economic development based on their energy stores. They however have massive potential for renewable energy extraction too. But this potential need massive amounts of investment in infrastructure to realize, an element that these economies do not possess. Further, as the oil produced by these satisfy the needs of the developing and emerging economies, most of their buyer nations will see no benefit in trying to aid the African economies to substantially create their supplier’s renewable energy sector.

Similar is the case of the Central Asia region where the nations depend on extractive industries of oil, coal, and gas. Both climate impact as well as climate change mitigation and adaptation in this region is projected to heighten geopolitical tension. Not only are the foreign direct investments in the region low at present, but the existing investments do also not prioritize resilient and sustainable development and is related mostly in sector of non-renewable energy resource extraction. The geopolitics of this region is connected in more than one way with the issue of climate change. The region is prone to water and energy shortages. Whereas carbon rich Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan extract and use oil, gas and coal for their energy production, other nations in the region- Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which have lower GDP per capita uses clean hydro energy. Thus an inequality exist as the downstream nations are those which are more reliant on fossil fuels and the upstream nations, although not energy rich, possess ample hydroelectric potential. This inequality is estimated by the scholars to create strains in the region which can spill over in the rest of Asia.

The Dilemma

It might seem like the fossil-fuels based energy export reliant nations are set to lose the most in the coming future as the world starts looking for ways to transition towards clean fuel and energy in the coming years. However, the oil and gas industry might not be ending anytime soon.

For instance, Nord Stream 2, a planned pipeline through the Baltic Sea, which is expected to transport natural gas over from Siberia to consumers in Europe is being looked upon as a secure and reliable as well as cleaner source of energy for the coming decades. It indeed will replace the coal powered sectors in Europe and help reducing carbon emissions, however, this is also expected to provide Russia a sort of geopolitical push that it has not witnessed in many years now in terms of its relations with Europe, especially since the conflict with Ukraine in 2014. Although, this has changed in recent times as tensions arose with Georgia and the political chaos around Alexei Navalny’s poisoning, who was being seen as a political competitor to President Putin by some in Russia. However, this is not to say that Russia has not been working towards climate change mitigation agenda. In November last year, Russian President Putin signed a decree ordering the Russian government to work towards meeting the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change, but stressed that any action must be balanced with the need to ensure strong economic development. This in geopolitical terms can be seen as an attempt to align Russia with the change in presidency in US, where the new president Joe Biden is supposed to be an avid supporter for climate activism and is expected to work towards making US carbon neutral with a long-term plan, in stark contrast to the previous president Donald Trump.

Another geopolitical battle is emerging in the Arctic, where several nations like the US, China and Russia are no vying for dominance. In Arctic, with melting snow, shipping is all set to witness an increase. According to some estimates, if shipping along the Arctic becomes fully accessible, Bering Sea can become an area of contention for US and Russia, as well as China, thus reducing the importance of other choke points and the nations controlling them, like Egypt and Southeast Asia. This phenomenon also exists in line with the argument that if oil ceases to be a central driver of the global economy, many regions like Gulf are set to see their long-standing relations with the western nations like US change.

Climate change related migration, which can result out of several reasons like submergence of islands, droughts due to varying rainfall patterns, stronger hurricanes or storms, or massive flooding of rivers due to higher rate of melting of glaciers that feed them with water, is also becoming a geopolitical contention that the nations are staring at today. The world has witnessed in 2015 refugee crisis in Europe, the extent of chaos, heightened populism, and nationalism, as well as lack of trust in multilateralism and established institutions that can be caused. Even though in this case, the result was not due to underlying climate change related challenges directly, similar effects due to influx of refugees and similar migration patterns can be expected from the regions of changing patterns of rainfall. This leads us to think where the current situation leaves us today for the future.

What does the Future Hold?

For many economies, initial investment cost for renewable energy systems is usually high, resulting unaffordability for many, especially in developing countries. Some others on the other hand, like Malaysia, with some of the highest level of subsidies on fossil fuels result in renewable energy market to remain economically weak and uncompetitive. Similarly, for Australia’s economy, which has for long been reliant on fossil fuel industries to ensure the economic prosperity across the country, it is now becoming an issue of contention which it will need to resolve in order to ensure not its own, but also its neighborhood’s sustainability lying in the Indo-Pacific region as low lying islands which are at the risk of submergence due to climate change related effects.

In today’s world, not only can conflicts related to renewable energy infrastructure lead to stress as seen in case of Central Asian region, but also strain over issues like transfer of technology between developed and developing countries can turn into bigger forms of geopolitical conflicts. It also remains to be seen if the resources like rare-earth metals, which are needed for expansion of cleaner energy platforms will be available according to need of a nation or be made available to the highest buyer and turned into a business. The global order as it stands today between the oil producers and the oil consumers is also set to change as the climate change mitigation policies are adopted resulting from increasingly severe negative effects emerging from the anthropogenic climate change.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: A Global Economic Earthquake with Far-Reaching Implications

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3 days ago

April 15, 2025

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Baba Yunus Muhammad

Washington, D.C. – Long before his 2024 re-election campaign, Donald J. Trump had been an unrelenting advocate for protectionist trade policies. His views on tariffs, long cast as a pillar of his economic nationalism, have now crystallized into a sweeping policy agenda with the potential to reshape the global economic order. Last Wednesday, President Trump took to the White House lawn, brandishing an oversized chart, to announce the most aggressive tariff regime in modern U.S. history—a unilateral 10% blanket tariff on virtually all imported goods, complemented by so-called “reciprocal” tariffs targeting countries he accuses of exploiting the United States.

The move has not just rattled America’s trading partners, it has sent shockwaves through the entire global economy. Financial markets plunged, manufacturing sectors braced for retaliation, and policymakers around the world scrambled to assess the fallout. But what lies behind this bold—and, some argue, reckless—push for economic decoupling? And what does it mean for the Islamic world and emerging markets?

Economic Nationalism Reborn

Trump’s tariff blitz is the fullest expression yet of his “America First” economic philosophy—an ideological throwback to a 1950s-era America that dominated global manufacturing in the wake of World War II. According to economic historian Dr. Alan Scott, this nostalgia is at the heart of Trump’s thinking. “The U.S. was uniquely advantaged during that period—Europe and Japan were devastated, and America had a virtual monopoly on industrial output,” he says. “That era cannot be recreated.”

Nonetheless, Trump’s rhetoric is anchored in the belief that aggressive tariffs will resuscitate America’s industrial base, revitalize blue-collar employment, and address the inequalities wrought by decades of globalization. Whether those goals are achievable—or even realistic—is highly contested.

The Global Repercussions: Allies and Adversaries in the Crosshairs

The effects of the new tariffs are global in scope. China, the U.S.’s main strategic rival, faces an unprecedented 54% total levy on its exports to the United States. Beijing has already vowed retaliatory action. Traditional allies have not fared much better: the European Union is now subject to a 20% tariff; the United Kingdom, 10%; and Japan, despite pledging $1 trillion in U.S. investments, is hit with a 24% tariff.

Notably, Canada and Mexico have been spared—at least temporarily—though they too have been locked in past trade disputes with the Trump administration. For the Islamic world and Global South, the stakes are even higher. Several of the world’s poorest and most trade-dependent countries have been targeted with tariffs as high as 50%. These include Cambodia, Laos, Madagascar, Vietnam, Myanmar—and critically, Muslim-majority nations such as Pakistan and Indonesia are watching with deep concern, given their heavy reliance on U.S. markets for textiles, apparel, and electronics.

A Blow to the Global South

Among the most worrying elements of the policy is its potential impact on least-developed and low-income countries. Nations like Lesotho and Cambodia—already reeling from reduced U.S. development assistance—now face steep tariffs on their exports. For smaller Islamic economies trying to escape the middle-income trap or build industrial bases, this could be economically devastating.

“Tariffs of this magnitude will not just curb growth, they could collapse entire industries,” warns Dr. Aisha Rahman, an economist with the Islamic Development Bank. “Many of these countries have benefited from preferential trade terms. Now, they risk being crowded out of global markets just when they are beginning to integrate.”

There is also the risk that products originally intended for the U.S. market could be dumped in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia, creating new competitive pressures for local businesses.

Inflation, Uncertainty, and the U.S. Backlash

Domestically, the response has been fraught with anxiety. Wall Street has registered its displeasure with sharp declines: the Nasdaq dropped 6%, the S&P 500 fell 4.8%, and the Dow slid 3.9%. The U.S. dollar weakened, oil prices plummeted, and the bond market reflected growing fears of a recession.

Analysts warn of rising inflation and unemployment. A study by the Wall Street Journal projects that if the tariffs remain, inflation could spike to 4.4% by year-end, with unemployment hitting 5.5%. This economic strain would disproportionately impact low-income households—precisely those whom Trump claims to champion.

Even within Trump’s own party, unease is growing. While Vice President JD Vance dismissed the market reaction as overblown, some Republican lawmakers are beginning to break ranks, concerned that the long-term economic costs will outweigh any short-term political gains.

Can the Islamic World Respond Strategically?

For Muslim-majority countries—particularly those striving to expand manufacturing and export-led growth—Trump’s new trade regime presents both a challenge and an opportunity. On one hand, increased U.S. protectionism may shut the door on critical export markets. On the other, it could accelerate South-South trade partnerships, regional economic blocs, and Islamic finance-led industrial investment.

Dr. Omar El-Zein, trade advisor to the OIC, argues that “the Islamic world must now pursue intra-OIC trade more seriously than ever before. If the West turns inward, we must turn to one another.”

Indeed, in an era where multilateralism is being tested and global supply chains are being restructured, there is a chance to forge new trade alignments rooted in mutual benefit, Islamic economic values, and strategic autonomy.

Conclusion: Between Ideology and Impact

President Trump’s tariffs are not merely a set of economic instruments—they are a declaration of ideological war on the globalized economic consensus. While they may serve a symbolic political purpose in the U.S., their real-world impact will be felt far beyond its borders—in factories in Bangladesh, in textile mills in Egypt, and in rice fields in Indonesia.

The Islamic world, already grappling with structural development challenges, must now brace for a more hostile and unpredictable global trading environment. Whether it chooses to respond with disunity or collective resolve may well define its economic future.

Baba Yunus Muhammad is President, Africa Islamic Economic Forum, Ghana

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

How Africa’s Largest Economy Lost 50% of Its GDP

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7 days ago

April 11, 2025

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Hafiz M. Ahmed

In 2014, Nigeria stood atop Africa’s economic podium, its GDP recalibrated to $510 billion, a figure that cemented its status as the continent’s largest economy. Oil wealth, a burgeoning tech scene, and a population of 220 million fuelled ambitions of global ascendancy. Yet, a decade later, that triumph has unravelled: GDP has halved to $253 billion by 2024, a stark testament to structural frailties and external blows. Inflation has surged to 33.95%, poverty ensnares 46% of the populace, and youth unemployment festers at 40%. This is no mere statistical blip—it is a crisis demanding urgent reckoning. But Nigeria’s story need not end in decline. Beneath the rubble lies a nation poised for resurgence, armed with vast resources, a dynamic workforce, and nascent reforms. The path to recovery is arduous yet attainable. Here, we dissect the collapse and chart a credible blueprint for Nigeria to reclaim its mantle as Africa’s economic powerhouse.

The descent began with oil, the artery of Nigeria’s economy. From 2000 to 2014, annual GDP growth averaged 7%, peaking at $568 billion, propelled by crude prices that topped $115 per barrel. Oil constituted 90% of exports and 70% of government revenue, per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But the 2014 price crash to $50 per barrel exposed a fatal dependency. By 2023, production slumped to 1.28 million barrels per day (mbpd)—below the OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd—haemorrhaging $10 billion annually to theft, according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Foreign exchange reserves dwindled from $38 billion in 2019 to $33 billion in 2023, per the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as oil receipts faltered. This overreliance has left Nigeria vulnerable, yet it also signals an overdue pivot to diversification.

Structural deficiencies run deep. Agriculture, employing 45% of Nigerians, contributes just 25% to GDP, its productivity stymied—maize yields average 1.8 tons per hectare against a global norm of 5 tons, per the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Manufacturing, now 9% of GDP in 2023, down from 9.5% in 2015, is throttled by electricity shortages costing businesses $29 billion yearly, per the World Bank. Nigeria generates a paltry 4,000 megawatts for 220 million people, compared to South Africa’s 58,000 MW for 60 million. Import reliance—$2.13 billion spent on wheat, rice, and sugar in 2023, per the African Development Bank (AfDB)—drains reserves, a vulnerability magnified by a 40% wheat price surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These are not insurmountable flaws; they are clarion calls for reform.

Monetary policy missteps exacerbated the malaise. The CBN’s artificial naira peg at 305 to the dollar until 2023 depleted reserves and spawned a parallel market where rates hit 1,600 by 2024. Post-devaluation, the currency lost 70% of its value, per IMF estimates, driving inflation to 33.95% in May 2024—food inflation reached 40%, per the NBS. A 50kg bag of rice, a staple, soared from ₦25,000 in 2022 to ₦80,000 in 2024, punishing households where 46% live below $1.90 daily, per the World Bank. Public debt escalated to 46% of GDP in 2023, with 89% of budgeted deficits financed through borrowing, per PwC’s 2024 analysis. This fiscal strain is severe, but it is not irreparable—policy agility can stem the tide.

Corruption and insecurity have exacted a punishing toll. Oil theft, at 400,000 barrels daily in 2022, costs $10 billion annually, while Nigeria languishes at 145 out of 180 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Customs inefficiencies at Apapa Port siphon $4 billion yearly, per the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). In the northeast, Boko Haram’s insurgency has inflicted $100 billion in economic losses since 2009, per estimates, slashing agricultural output by 20%. Banditry and separatist unrest further erode stability. External shocks—COVID-19’s 6.1% GDP contraction in Q2 2020, per the IMF, and Ukraine-driven fuel price hikes (petrol to ₦671 per litre in 2023, per the AfDB)—have compounded the damage. Yet, these challenges, while daunting, are not destiny.

The GDP’s 50% plunge is partly a statistical artefact. The 2014 rebasing inflated it by 89%, but naira devaluation reversed dollar-based gains. In purchasing power parity (PPP), Nigeria’s economy stood at $1.2 trillion in 2023, per the IMF, among Africa’s top three. Still, the human cost is stark: 63% of Nigerians—133 million—face multidimensional poverty, per the NBS, with 10.5 million children out of school, the world’s highest. Youth unemployment, at 40% in 2023, drives the “Japa” exodus—5,000 doctors emigrated in 2022, per the Nigerian Medical Association. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), comprising 96% of businesses and 84% of jobs, per The Business Year 2024, access just 5% of bank loans. These figures are sobering, but they underscore a latent capacity yearning for activation.

Nigeria’s fundamentals remain compelling. Its tech sector—epitomised by Flutterwave and Paystack—secured $1.8 billion in venture capital in 2023, per TechCabal, with annual growth of 30% since 2020. Agriculture spans 70 million arable hectares, a resource base that slashed rice imports by 40% since 2015, per the AfDB. The Dangote Refinery, operational since 2024 with 650,000 barrels daily, promises $5 billion in annual forex savings. A population projected to reach 428 million by 2050, per UN estimates, offers an unrivalled market. Nigeria’s economic reset hinges on harnessing these strengths through decisive, pragmatic measures. Below are the critical steps to restore and elevate this giant.

Diversification must be the cornerstone. Agriculture, with targeted investment, could generate $100 billion annually. Mechanisation—raising tractor density from 1 per 100 farmers to 10, as in Kenya, per the FAO—could double yields within five years. Nigeria’s 60% share of global cassava production, currently worth $1.5 billion, could reach $5 billion with processing plants, per UNCTAD projections. Leveraging the $2 trillion global halal market, where demand grows 6% annually, per the Halal Trade Expo, is a natural fit—northern Nigeria’s 100 million Muslims could supply certified meat to the Gulf, mirroring Malaysia’s $12 billion halal export success. A $500 million fund for irrigation and agro-industrial zones, coupled with 10-year tax holidays, could catalyse this shift, emulating Ghana’s Planting for Food initiative, which tripled rice output since 2017.

Energy reform is non-negotiable. Nigeria’s $29 billion annual power deficit demands a 10,000 MW boost by 2030—solar farms in the sun-drenched north, harnessing 300 days of sunlight, could deliver half, drawing on Kenya’s $1 billion renewable model that electrified 70% of rural areas. Private investment, as demonstrated by Dangote’s $19 billion refinery, could bridge the $190 billion energy gap, per UNCTAD estimates, if paired with grid upgrades slashing 40% transmission losses, per the World Bank. Reliable power would revive manufacturing, lifting its GDP share to 15% within a decade and unlocking export potential under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Corruption requires surgical intervention. Digitising oil flows, as Norway does with real-time tracking, could recover $10 billion yearly, per NNPC data. E-governance—online tax and procurement platforms—could save $2 billion in leakages, per EFCC projections, while a robust anti-graft framework with independent audits and whistleblower protections rebuilds credibility. Foreign direct investment, which fell 33% to $3.3 billion in 2023, per UNCTAD, would rebound as opacity fades.

SMEs, the economy’s backbone, need oxygen. A $1 billion loan guarantee scheme, akin to South Africa’s SME Fund that created 30,000 jobs since 2019, could unlock $10 billion in credit, addressing the 5% lending gap. Vocational training for 1 million entrepreneurs annually—mirroring Rwanda’s 7% youth unemployment drop—enhances competitiveness. Linking SMEs to AfCFTA’s $3.4 trillion market via export hubs could elevate intra-African trade from 16% to 30%, per AfDB targets.

Human capital is the linchpin. Raising education spending to 15% of the budget—$10 billion—could build 10,000 schools, per UNESCO benchmarks, halving the 10.5 million out-of-school figure. Technical institutes, like Ghana’s, could train 500,000 youths yearly, cutting unemployment by 5%. Healthcare demands $1 billion for 1,000 mobile clinics, reaching 20 million rural residents and staunching medical brain drain—India’s model reduced infant mortality 30%. A skilled, healthy workforce is Nigeria’s competitive edge.

Infrastructure must match ambition. A $15 billion overhaul—bolstered by the AfDB’s $1.44 billion 2024 commitment—could halve logistics costs, currently $1 billion yearly. Rail links, like Ethiopia’s $4 billion Addis-Djibouti line, and port digitisation, as at Morocco’s Tanger Med, would expedite trade, positioning Nigeria as an AfCFTA hub. The naira’s flotation and $10 billion subsidy savings, per PwC, are steps forward; execution must be relentless.

Nigeria’s 50% GDP drop is a jolt, not a death knell. Its $1 trillion nominal GDP potential by 2050, per PwC, is within reach if these measures take root. Investors should note: a market of 220 million, with tech growing 30% annually, offers outsized returns despite risks. Policymakers must act—133 million in poverty brook no delay. Nigeria can lead Africa anew, its resilience forged in adversity. The question is not if, but how swiftly, it seizes this moment.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

What is the Role of Bosnia in Strengthening Halal Supply Chains in Europe?

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4 weeks ago

March 20, 2025

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Hafiz M. Ahmed

Imagine walking into a supermarket in Paris, Berlin, or London, scanning the shelves for halal-certified products. You pick up a pack of chicken, a bottle of olive oil, and a box of cookies, all bearing the halal logo. But have you ever wondered how these products made it to the shelf? Behind every halal-certified item lies a complex supply chain that ensures its authenticity, safety, and compliance with Islamic principles. In Europe, where the demand for halal products is growing rapidly, building a reliable and transparent halal supply chain is no small feat. Enter Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country that has emerged as a key player in strengthening halal supply chains across the continent.

With its deep-rooted Islamic heritage, cutting-edge certification processes, and collaborative approach, Bosnia is setting a new standard for halal integrity in Europe. This article explores Bosnia’s pivotal role in creating a robust halal supply chain, its collaborations with other halal-certified organizations, and why its efforts matter for businesses and consumers alike.

The Growing Demand for Halal Products in Europe

Europe is home to over 25 million Muslims, a number that is expected to grow in the coming years. This demographic shift has fueled a surge in demand for halal products, from food and beverages to cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. According to a report by Statista, the European halal food market alone is projected to reach $30 billion by 2025. However, meeting this demand is not without its challenges.

One of the biggest hurdles is ensuring the integrity of the halal supply chain. From farm to fork, every step of the process must adhere to strict halal standards. This includes sourcing halal-certified raw materials, using compliant processing methods, and maintaining transparency throughout the supply chain. For businesses, this requires a high level of coordination and expertise—something that Bosnia has mastered.

Bosnia’s Expertise in Halal Certification: A Foundation for Trust

Bosnia and Herzegovina has long been a leader in the global halal industry, thanks in large part to its Agency for Halal Quality Certification (AHQC). Established in 2007, the AHQC is renowned for its rigorous standards and transparent processes. But Bosnia’s contribution to the halal industry goes beyond certification; it plays a critical role in strengthening halal supply chains across Europe.

Here’s how Bosnia is making a difference:

Setting Rigorous Standards: The AHQC’s certification process is one of the most stringent in the world. It covers every stage of production, from sourcing raw materials to packaging and distribution. This ensures that products bearing the Bosnia Halal Certification logo meet the highest standards of quality and compliance.
Promoting Transparency: Transparency is at the heart of Bosnia’s approach to halal certification. The AHQC requires detailed documentation and conducts regular audits to ensure ongoing compliance. This level of transparency builds trust among consumers and businesses alike.
Leveraging Technology: Bosnia is at the forefront of using technology to enhance halal supply chains. From blockchain to track and trace systems, the country is leveraging innovative solutions to ensure the integrity of halal products.

Collaborations: The Key to a Stronger Halal Supply Chain

Bosnia’s success in strengthening halal supply chains is not a solo effort. It is the result of strategic collaborations with other halal-certified organizations, businesses, and government bodies across Europe. These partnerships have been instrumental in creating a more reliable and transparent halal ecosystem.

Partnerships with Halal-Certified Businesses: Bosnia works closely with businesses that are committed to halal integrity. By providing them with certification and guidance, the AHQC helps these companies navigate the complexities of the halal supply chain.
Collaborations with International Halal Organizations: Bosnia is an active member of global halal organizations such as the AHAC – Association of halal Crttifiers. These collaborations ensure that Bosnia’s standards align with international best practices.
Government Support: The Bosnian government has been a strong advocate for the halal industry, providing funding and support for initiatives that promote halal integrity. This has enabled the AHQC to expand its reach and impact.
Educational Initiatives: Bosnia is also investing in education and training to raise awareness about halal standards. Through workshops, seminars, and publications, the AHQC is helping to build a more informed and skilled workforce.

Bosnia’s Impact on the European Halal Market

To understand the real-world impact of Bosnia’s efforts, let’s look at a case study. In 2020, a major European supermarket chain partnered with the AHQC to source halal-certified poultry products. The collaboration involved:

Sourcing: The AHQC worked with farmers and suppliers to ensure that the poultry was raised and processed in accordance with halal standards.
Certification: The AHQC certified the entire supply chain, from the farm to the supermarket shelf.
Transparency: The supermarket chain used blockchain technology to provide consumers with real-time information about the product’s journey.

The result? A 20% increase in sales of halal-certified poultry products within six months. This success story highlights the tangible benefits of Bosnia’s approach to halal supply chain management.

Why Bosnia’s Role Matters for Europe

Bosnia’s contributions to the halal industry have far-reaching implications for Europe. Here’s why:

Consumer Confidence: By ensuring the integrity of halal supply chains, Bosnia is helping to build consumer confidence in halal-certified products. This is crucial in a market where trust is paramount.
Economic Growth: The halal industry is a significant driver of economic growth. By strengthening halal supply chains, Bosnia is creating new opportunities for businesses and boosting the European economy.
Cultural Integration: The halal industry plays a vital role in promoting cultural integration. By providing high-quality halal products, Bosnia is helping to meet the needs of Europe’s diverse population.
Global Leadership: Bosnia’s expertise in halal certification and supply chain management positions it as a global leader in the industry. This not only enhances its reputation but also sets a benchmark for other countries to follow.

Challenges and the Way Forward

While Bosnia has made significant strides in strengthening halal supply chains, challenges remain. These include:

Standardization: Despite Bosnia’s efforts, there is still a lack of uniformity in halal standards across Europe. This can create confusion for businesses and consumers.
Fraud and Mislabeling: The rise of counterfeit halal products is a growing concern. Bosnia is addressing this issue through stricter regulations and advanced tracking technologies.
Awareness: Many consumers and businesses are still unaware of the importance of halal certification. Bosnia is tackling this through educational initiatives and outreach programs.

Looking ahead, Bosnia’s focus will be on fostering greater collaboration, leveraging technology, and raising awareness about halal standards. By doing so, it aims to create a more robust and transparent halal supply chain that benefits everyone.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has emerged as a beacon of reliability and transparency in the European halal industry. Through its rigorous standards, innovative solutions, and collaborative approach, the country is playing a pivotal role in strengthening halal supply chains across the continent. For businesses, this means access to a growing market and a trusted partner in halal certification. For consumers, it means peace of mind knowing that the products they purchase meet the highest standards of quality and authenticity.

As the demand for halal products continues to rise, Bosnia’s contributions will become even more significant. By setting a benchmark for integrity and excellence, Bosnia is not only shaping the future of the halal industry in Europe but also inspiring the world to follow suit.

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